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      • 마을 만들기 연구의 정량적 접근에 관한 소고 - 마을 만들기 사업규모와 성과의 관계를 중심으로 -

        김동윤,김선직,강래천,Kim, Dong-Yoon,Kim, Sun-Jick,Kang, Rae-Cheon 한국디지털건축·인테리어학회 2011 한국디지털건축인테리어학회 논문집 Vol.11 No.2

        Skeptical responses to urban design based on the Physical Planning theory assuming the existence of social agreement and the absolute authorities of planners bring about alternatives such as Participatory Planning and Community Design derived from Harbermas' Communicative Rationality. But the normative contentions do not progress any more to the stage of presenting practical strategies. This is the cause why there should be systematic approaches to reveal the relationships among various concepts or variables. With regard to the Community Design this study intends to take a statistical approach to find relationship between project scale and its accomplishment. The hypothesis that the smaller scale of project begets the better outcomes was tested to be rejected as a result of the analysis of variance. But the result also shows that appropriate density in relatively large area makes residents' expected satisfaction high. Although this discovery has its own meaning the tryout is anticipated to laying the cornerstone of quantitative analyses in the following studies.

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        수도권성장모형구축

        정일훈(Il-Hoon Chung),강래천(Lea-Chun Kang),박태병(Tai-Byung Park) 한국생활환경학회 2011 한국생활환경학회지 Vol.18 No.4

        This study suggests an application of the proposed conceptual model to forecast urban growth in Seoul metropolitan region and studies how the Seoul metropolitan area will be changed or transformed under given 3 scenarios using the model. The Seoul metropolitan region growth model consists of 3 modules; socio-economic forecasting module, spatial urban growth forecasting module and index allocating module. First, socio-economic index forecasting module estimates population, housing and employment. Secondly, spatial urban growth forecasting module simulates urban growth using markovian-cellular automata model. Third, index allocating module distribute the population, housing and employment spatially. In the end the map which accommodates the demand and supply side of urban development was made. This study used 3 scenarios; scenario # 1 has no limitation in development and 20% eased altitude and elevation in the metropolitan area; #2 has the same limitation in development; 3# has a part of regions or areas with no limitation. This study proved that the results are similar to those of humans’ forecast and that it can be applied to forecast the growth in cities or regions. To reflect more actuality, this study introduces and applies socio-economic indexes onto the forecast results including population, area of houses and employees. This study is significant in that it forecasted indexes through multi-dimensional approaches and applied the indexes onto the Cellular Automata, and thus suggested a method to apply urban growth forecasting model on Seoul metropolitan area.

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