對美議會 로비 方向에 관한 硏究

朱星煥 건국대학교 1988 學術誌 Vol.32 No.1

So far the previous studies on the trade between Korea and U.S.A. have investigated economic factors but ignored political factors. Unlike previous studies, the purpose of this study analyze the voting behavior of congressman of the U.S. House of Representatives, identify campaign contribution behavior of special interest groups in the legislative process, and find directions of lobbying to the U.S. Congress. So in this paper we investigate the voting hehavior of congressman on the Durwinski Revision in relation to the South Korea Military Aid/sales Cut, HR13680. In conjunction with this bill we also consider campaign contributions made by Aerospace Industries Association groups, United Technologies Corp. groups, Conservative Ideology groups, and Liberal. Ideology grous. The empirical results show interest groups contribute more money to the member of Armed Service Committee, and consider the party, ADA index of the congressman. Also the results indicate interest groups contribute more campaign funds to candidates in close races. The empirical findings concerning representatives voting behavior strongly indicates that representatives support Durwinaki Revision which produce benefits for Aerospace groups and United Technology groups front whom they receive campaign contributions. Also the results show that the representatives who are Republican and have lower ADA index support Durwinski Revision. From the results of the study we can find three possible directions of lobbying to U.S. Congress. First, for direct lobby to the U.S. Congress we have to find representatives basic policy position on legislation of concern including their personal and district's characteristics. Second, considering a election of representatives we lobby to constituents of representatves districts. Third, we reinforce relationships with the interest groups who have direct related with labor unions and corporations in U.S. By this we expect to get logrolling effects on legislative process.

남북한의 경제발전과정에 관한 연구 : 경제발번이론에 근거한 비교분석 A Comparative Analysis Based on the Economic Development Theories

주성환 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1997 商經硏究 Vol.22 No.1

不均衡市場의 計量模型

朱星煥 건국대학교 1986 學術誌 Vol.30 No.1

There have been many studies analyzing disequilibrium from the theoretical and empirical points of view. This paper is concerned with estimation method of demand and supply equation in disequilibrium markets. The main problem of estimation is that the observed quantity traded in the disequilibrium market may not satisty demand and supply schedules simultaneously. One approach to this problem is a usual simultaneous-equations methods under the assumption that the observed quantity traded satisfies demand and supply. Another general approach is to seperate the sample into demand and supply regimes such that each schedule may be fitted against the observed quantity for the sample points falling within its regime. There have been three methods in this approach. First method is 'Directional Method'. This sales that if ΔPt= Pt-Pt-1> 0, then we have excess demand, and if ΔPt<0, then we have excess supply. Thus, we use the sign of ΔPt of sort out the sample into two groups-demand and supply groups. Second method is 'Quantitative Method ( I )'. This depends on assuming that the change in price is proportional to excess demand: that is ΔPt =γ(Dt-St). Third method is 'Quantitative Method (II)'. In this method the strict assumption about price-setting behavior is relaxed and the method proposed for estimating supply and demand schedules under the much weaker assumption that the price equation is a multivariate and stochastic relationship. In this paper, I hypothesized that the price equation has a partial adjustment form as ΔPt = ΔPt-1+λ (ΔPt *- ΔPt-1). Sine ΔPt *=0, The price equation is specified as ΔPt = (1-λ) ΔPt-1+μt. If λ>0, then we have excess demand, hence observed quantity belongs to supply category. And if λ<0, then the observed quantity belongs to demand category. After using the information on λ to classify the observations into those belonging to the demand and the supply category, we applied maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate the demand and supply equations.

北韓의 對東毆共産圈 貿易構造分析

朱星煥 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1991 商經硏究 Vol.16 No.1

동아시아 經濟發展과 政府의 形態

朱星煥 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1998 商經硏究 Vol.23 No.2

The conventional neoclassical view is that state's intervention as a strategy of development has been unsuccessful in the postwar period. This has led theorists to emphasize the important role of free market in the development process. But this view conflicts with much of th European historical experience. Almost all of the industrial nations of Europe used government-inspired and administered infant industry policies to launch successful industrial transformations. In addition, much of the recent literature on the economic success of East Asia points to the important role of the state in utilizing import substitution combined with export promotion in achieving rapid industrialization. How are this contrasting views to be made compatible? Why has state's intervention been so effective in East Asia. The key distinction between failure and success in economic development is not the policies the government undertakers but the types of state. The development of the developing strong states which promote economic growth depends on the existence of institution that make it in the interests of political officials to abide by limits on their power. The state should be not only strong enough to establish and maintain property rights, but is a constitutionally prevented from violating these right. A state's commitment to market-led growth requires the design of appropriate government institutions that ensure clear boundaries between the private and public, and that protect both property rights and agreements with business sector. The assurances that such boundaries are in place will expand the investment horizons of investors so that sustained long-term growth begin.

非線型計量模型과 켬퓨터 Algorithm

朱星煥 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1985 商經硏究 Vol.10 No.1

In recent years, the advent of advanced computer technology has made it possible for the econometrician to estimate an increasing number of non-linear regression models. Non-linearity arises in many diverse ways in econometric applications. The estimations for nonlinear econometric models are, in some cases, derived by transformation of the model into linear models. Unfortinately, for many applied problems, nonlinear specifications can not be avoided. Perhaps the general non-linear models are used in the estimation of production and coat functions. In order to estimate the parameters in the nonlinear model, the objective function has to be specified. From the objective function we can derive either a sum of squared errors or likelihood function on which we apply a numerical optimization method. To use the nunerical optimigation method, we have to select a robust numerical algorithm which can be applicable to a particular econometric model. Also to find a grobal optimum of the objective function, appropriate initial point should be choosed. For nonlinear models, the properties of estimators and test statistics can only be derived approximately or asymptotically. Test for a general hypothesis can he performed by using the asymptotic x²distribution of the Wald, the Rao or the likelihood ratio test statistic under the condition of normally distributed errors. Although the discussion of techniques and methods for estimation in nonlinear models has substantially improved during recent years, many problems are still unsolued. It is difficult to choose the optimal algorithm out of the set of available techniques for a particalar model. Asymptotic properties in the non-linear model are only valid for large-sample sizes. In practise, we typically work with small or moderate samples. Therefore the small-sample and asymptotic distribution of the estimators or test statistics may differ substantially in practice.

不確實性下에서의 意思決定理論 : 講義錄

朱星煥 건국대학교 1985 商經論叢 Vol.- No.20

說明變數의 選擇

朱星煥 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1989 商經硏究 Vol.14 No.1

Most of discussion in econometrics proceeded on the assumption that the set of variables to be included in the equation is given, i.e. a multiple regressions of an explained variable Y on a set of K explanatory variables X₁, X₂……, X. This is the ideal situation that is rarely in practice. There is a very large number of potential explanatory variables or regressors. So econometricans is faced with the problem of choosing a subset. This is the problem of selection of regressors. In this paper I review and analyze some of recent studies for selection of regressors. Theil's R²criterion is based on the assumption that one of the models considered is the correct models. In this case choosing the model with the minimum σ²or the maximizing R²will lead to pick the correct model. On the other hand three criteria are based on minimizing the mean square error of prediction. The prediction criteria are done by minimizing E(Y-Y)²where Y is the future values of Y and Y is the predicted value of Y. Denoting the explanatory variables in the prediction period by X and during the same period by X. If the values of X have the same behavior as the variables X, then estimate of F(Y-Y)² is similar to (2k/n)σ²+ RSS₁/n where Rss₁ is the residual sum of square from the model with K₁regressors. Mallows' C criterion uses σ²=RSS/)n-k) as estimate of σ²where RSS is the residual sum of squares from the complete model with K explanatory variables. On the other hand Amemiya's PC criterion uses σ²=RSS/(n-k) as estimate of σ²where RSS is the residual sum of squares from the model with k explanatory variables. Hocking, by contrast, assumes the regressors to have a multivariate normal distribution and derives the S criterion by minimizing the unconditional mean square error of prediction. But these prediction criteria can be used only to the linear models. Akaihe suggests a more general criterion that can be applied to any model (including non-linear model) that can be estimated by method of maximum likelihood. This criterion need a discussion of the bayesian approach to model relection.

한국, 일본, 대만의 경제발전에서의 儒敎의 역할

주성환 建國大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1997 商經硏究 Vol.22 No.2

Western economist observed that there was a absence of capitalism as an ideology in East Asia. They explained that Confucianism had created and perpetuated Asia's major social institutions and practices, all of which had stifling effects on the development of capitalism. Hence, Western-style capitalism had failed to emerge in Asia. They identified these social institutions and practices as the patrimonial political structure and ideology, an unyielding traditionalism in state affairs which was reinforced by gigantic and cumbersome bureaucracy which was originally established to collect and allocate taxes, the close-it family sib and its constrictive effects on its members' freedom and creativity, and the concept of the genteel as being a perfect product of Confucian education. They asserted that the emergence of capitalism in Western culture was historically unique and owed its ideological origin to Protestant ethics as formed during the Reformation. After World War Ⅱ, casual observers and economists have observed a similar work ethic, high energy level, and keen competitiveness among business people in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan where Confucianism has had a profound influence on the local culture. The economic success of these countries is the very influence of the Confucian philosophy. The industrial capitalism operating in the Far Eastern countries appears to be no different from that which function in the West. South Korea's, Japan's. and Taiwan's economy has even outstripped Western industrial economics in some respects. There came from the fact that Confucianism imparted a set of ethical principles that were almost identical to that of the sixteenth-century Protestant- diligence, frugality, creditability, honesty, rationaligation, and self-control. The Confucian's moral obligation to ascetic discipline was as strong and deep as the sixteenth-century Protestant's sense of commitment to an inner worldly ascetic life worthy of the saved persons. So Capitalism found its way into the far Eastern countries' culture and had to be in harmony with Confucian philosophy. As a result, high saving ratio, emphasis on the education - investment on the human capital, fairly income distribution, and government intervention in private economy were considered as a common characteristics in the economic development of Far Eastern countries, notably South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

韓國의 選擧-景氣循環에 關한 硏究

朱星煥 건국대학교 1992 學術誌 Vol.36 No.1

Governments of modern democracies have a wide variety of policy tools to alter the allocation of resources and the distribution of economic benefits. Economic behavior of an individual unit in a society is formulated within a framework of social rules which are transformed as laws by representatives in a democratic society. On the other hand, the change of the individual's economic behavior press to modify the framework of law to maximize the social welfare. Therefore there exists a simultaneous relationship between the economic and political sectors of society. In recent years, the interdependence of politics and economics has received an increasing amount of attention by both economists and political scientists. The traditional economic theory have failed partly because economic models have not taken political factors into account In this respect, this paper study to formalize the interaction of the political and economic sectors in Korea. To analyze how elections affect to economic outcomes, we use economic and political data from 1968 to 1989 in Korea. From the study we can not find the evidence that congressional elections affect government expenditure, but find positive relations between direct presidential elections and government expenditure. Second, we find that both congressional and presidential elections do not affect unemployment rate and economic growth rate. Third, the results of study show a strong relationship between money supply and congressional and presidential elections. Forth, we analyze the relations between inflation and elections. From the test, relations between GNP deflator and elections are insignificant. But we find that elections affect positively to the change of consumer price index and of wholesale price index.