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- 검색키워드
- 저자 : ( Thomas W. Hertel ) (검색결과 4 건)
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Dynamic Effects of the "New Age" Free Trade Agreement between Japan and Singapore
( Thomas W. Hertel ),( Terrie Walmsley ),( Ken Itakura ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.4
As manufacturing tariffs have fallen worldwide, the focus of free trade agreements has shifted towards other issues, including: rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and phyto-sanitary regulations, and the streamlining of customs procedures. Japan and Singapore are undertaking negotiations over this kind of "new-age" FTA. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the FTA on production, consumption, trade, international investment flows, GDP and welfare. We use a modified version of the dynamic GTAP model, which is well-suited to capturing the impact of this new-age FTA over both the short run and the longer run. In addition to the proposed bilateral tariff cuts, our analysis takes account of the potential gains from implementing uniform standards for e-commerce in Japan and Singapore. The consequences of liberalizing rules governing direct trade in services are also considered. Finally, we seek to quantify the impact of automating customs procedures in Japan, making them compatible with the computer-based standards established by Singapore. This is projected to reduce the administrative costs and lag time in Japan`s exports to, and imports from, all destinations, thereby permitting products to be delivered in a more timely fashion. We find that the impacts of this new-age FTA on bilateral trade and investment flows are significant ? with customs automization playing the most important role in driving increases in merchandise trade. The FTA also boosts rates of return in the two economies, thereby increasing both foreign and domestic investment as well as GDP. This causes the trade balance in both Japan and Singapore to deteriorate relative to baseline over the medium run, although it improves in the long run due to higher foreign income payments. The estimated global gains from this FTA are in excess of $US 9 billion annually, with the bulk of these gains accruing to Japan - which undertakes most of the reforms. Unlike preferential tariff cuts, the "new age" components of this FTA promote imports from all sources, thereby eliminating the problem of trade diversion.
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Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change
( Alla Golub ),( Thomas W. Hertel ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2008 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.23 No.3
The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997-2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.
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Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model
( Jing Liu ),( Channing Arndt ),( Thomas W. Hertel ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2004 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.19 No.3
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used for quantitative analysis of global economic issues. However, CGE models are frequently criticized for resting on weak empirical foundations. This paper builds on recent work in macro-econometric estimation, developing an approach to parameter estimation for a widely employed global CGE model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. An approximate likelihood function is developed and the set of optimum elasticity values is obtained by maximizing this approximate likelihood function in the context of a back casting exercise. In addition, two statistical tests are performed. The first of these tests compares the standard GTAP elasticity vector with the estimated trade elasticity vector. It rejects the null hypothesis of equality between the two sets of trade elasticities. The second test examines the widely maintained hypothesis known as the “rule of two”, by which the elasticity of substitution across imports by sources is set equal to twice the elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and imports. We fail to reject this common rule of thumb. We conclude that there is much to be gained by nesting CGE models within an estimation framework as this opens the way for formal evaluation of model performance and parameterization.
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Dynamic Effects of the "New Age"Free Trade agreement between Japan and Singapore
Hertel, Thomas W.,Walmsley, Terrie,Itakura, Ken 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.4
As manufacturing tariffs have fallen worldwide, the focus of free trade agreements has shifted towards other issues, including: rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and phyto-sanitary regulations, and the streamlining of customs procedures. Japan and Singapore are undertaking negotiations over this kind of "new-age" FTA. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the FTA on production, consumption, trade, international investment flows, GDP and welfare, We use a modified version of the dynamic GTAP model, which is wellsuited to capturing the impact of this new-age FTA over both the short run and the longer run, In addition to the proposed bilateral tariff cuts, our analysis takes account of the potential gains from implementing uniform standards for ecommerce in Japan and Sigapore. The consequences of liveralizing rules governing direct trade in services are also considered. Finally, we seek to quantify the impact of automating customs procedures in Japan, making them compatible with the computer-based standards established by Singapore. This is profected to reduce the administrative costs and lag time in Japan's exports to, and imports from, all destinations, thereby permitting products to be delivered in a more timely fashion. We find that the impacts of this new-age FTA on bilateral trade and investment flows are significant-with customs automization playing the most important role in driving increases in merchandise trade. The FTA also boosts rates of return in the two economies, thereby increasing both foreign and domestic investment as well as GDP. This causes the trade balance in both Japan and Singapore to deteriorate relative to baseline over the medium run, although it improves in the long run due to higher foreign income payments. The estimated global gains from this FTA are in excess of $US 9 billion annually, with the bulk of these gains accruing to Japan-which undertakes most of the reforms. Unlike preferential tariff cuts, the "new age" components of this FTA promote imports from all sources, thereby eliminating the problem of trade diversion.
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