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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : ( Ronald F Lehman Ii ) (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
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Some Considerations on Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Question
( Ronald F Lehman Ii ) 한국국방연구원 1994 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.6 No.2
Bringing Pyongyang into compliance with the NPT and its other nuclear obligations and keeping it there will require a persistent display of resolve by the international community, including strong leadership by the United States and the Republic of Korea. Both a sound legal architecture and major political change in the North must be achieved and sustained. The bilateral October 1994 US-North Korean agreement was intended to support both of these goals, but it contains within its structure and history elements which may work at cross purposes. Even if ultimately it helps resolve the Korean conflict satisfactorily, the impact of the October 1994 agreement elsewhere around the globe may complicate nuclear nonproliferation more than it helps. These negative effects can be reduced, however, and positive aspects of the agreement enhanced if the international community takes steps to strengthen the content of the anti-proliferation efforts now centered around the NPT and the dialogue between North and South Korea. That the necessary resolve will be displayed is not obvious. Given the political divisions within the world`s democracies over the specifics of nonproliferation policies, the resurgence of the North-South dispute in the context of the NPT extension, and the spread of nuclear capability to nations less onerous or isolated than the DPRK, the international community`s commitment to strong nonproliferation policies is not certain. Furthermore, success in dealing with North Korea`s nuclear program is only a necessary, but not sufficient component of a success- ful global nonproliferation effort. The ultimate impact of the October 1994 US-DPRK agreement, like the final resolution of the Korean nuclear question, will nor be seen for some time. Much will depend on how this agreement and that processare perceived and how they are implemented. Most importantly, success will be driven by attention to larger security, legal, political and economic considerations. One can imagine a very negative outcome if the consequences of the new agreement are to subsidize a totalitarian DPRK while failing to bring about significant political change, to undercut Seoul and/or the IAEA on inspections while failing to bring commensurate openness to the North, to call into question UN Security Council resolve on nonproliferation matters while encouraging other nations to pursue nuclear programs in order to extract concessions, to elevate Pyongyang`s saber rattling to a rationale for concluding an agreement while leaving unresolved during a dangerous period of transition the question of North Korea`s nuclear capability, etc. At the same time, if we do not forget these fundamental considera- tions, a positive outcome remains within reach. If a subsidized North Korean nuclear program does facilitate the end of dictatorship or the beginning of peaceful reunification it will enhance democracy and human rights to distant parts of the globe. If this disconcerting effort to ease Pyongyang out of its nuclear arms quest can be translated into a stronger nonproliferation regime worldwide, the risk from weapons of mass destruction may be greatly reduced. If the lesson for the UN Security Council is that it must act sooner and with greater decisiveness toward threats to international security, and if it does peace will spread. Throughout all of this, the United States and the Republic of Korea, along with other friendly nations, must maintain the closest consulta- tions to insure that this dangerous period of transition is navigated safely.
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Arms Control, Negotiations and the Korean Peninsula
( Ronald F Lehman Ii ) 한국국방연구원 1992 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.4 No.1
For most of the world, the Cold War is over. The empire that was the Soviet Union has collapsed with most of the resulting fifteen independent republics seeking ties to the West and exploring paths to its values-democracy, free markets, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. World security has been enhanced further by the strengthening of human rights, international trade, and the rule of law. The Korean Peninsula is not barred from the opportunities pre- sented in this new era, nor free from the necessity to respond to its challenges. Until recent months, North Korea was perhaps the one country least likely to respond positively to these new possibilities. Two agreements between North and South Korea concluded in December 1991 on reconciliation and cooperation, and on establish- ment of a denuclearized peninsula, however, are significant. The signature by North Korea on January 30, 1992, of a nuclear safe- guards agreement with the IAEA and its ratification of that agreement on April 10 also represents a step in the right direction. Concluding agreements, however, is only a first step; they must also be im- plemented fully both in letter and in spirit. The Korean peninsula`s participation in a new security environment will be guaranteed only through actual implementation of effective and credible inspections in North Korea under both the bilateral inspection regime and the IAEA agreement. Early implementation of bilateral inspections, under the non- nuclear agreement, is important to complement and strengthen IAEA inspections. The bilateral inspection regime should provide additional confidence that North Korea is not continuing to pursue a nuclear weapons program to conclusion. Today`s picture of the Korean peninsula is a challenging one. Much work has been done that could improve the chances for stability and security in this historically tense region. Agreements reached by the North and South, coupled with numerous other multilateral and bilateral efforts, have paved the way for improved relations and a safer, more promising environment for the Koreas. Progress by the two Koreas on the issue of proliferation could provide an important precedent for South Asia and the Middle East and set the stage for a more secure and prosperous Korean peninsula with great regional and global influence. Failure could increase the dangers feared by every nation.
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