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An integrated method of flammable cloud size prediction for offshore platforms
Zhang Bin,Zhang Jinnan,Yu Jiahang,Wang Boqiao,Li Zhuoran,Xia Yuanchen,Chen Li 대한조선학회 2021 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.13 No.1
Response Surface Method (RSM) has been widely used for flammable cloud size prediction as it can reduce computational intensity for further Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) especially during the early design phase of offshore platforms. However, RSM encounters the overfitting problem under very limited simulations. In order to overcome the disadvantage of RSM, Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural (BRANN)-based model has been recently developed and its robustness and efficiency have been widely verified. However, for ERA during the early design phase, there seems to be room to further reduce the computational intensity while ensuring the model's acceptable accuracy. This study aims to develop an integrated method, namely the combination of Center Composite Design (CCD) method with Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN), for flammable cloud size prediction. A case study with constant and transient leakages is conducted to illustrate the feasibility and advantage of this hybrid method. Additionally, the performance of CCD-BRANN is compared with that of RSM. It is concluded that the newly developed hybrid method is more robust and computational efficient for ERAs during early design phase.
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Zhang Bin,Li Zhuoran,Xia Yuanchen,Shi Jihao,Zhang Jinnan,Wang Boqiao,Yu Jiahang,Qu Yanxu,Chen Li,Lin Yejin,Wu Wanqing 대한조선학회 2022 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.14 No.1
A variety of experimental configurations including different water mist obstacles, are used to investigate the combined effects of obstacles and water mist upon the gas explosion. The results demonstrate the 8 mm water mist can significantly inhibit the deflagration, while both 45 mm and 80 mm water mists exhibit the opposite effect under all the locally distributed positions of water spray nozzle without obstacles inside the vessel. When considering the obstacles, the 45 mm water mist starts to mitigate the deflagration and its mitigation effect is more significant than that induced by the 8 mm water mist. What's more, the 80 mm water mist can slow down the flame propagation speed while it would still lead to the gas explosion. Additionally, there remains unchanged about the effect of locally spraying 8 mm water mist upon deflagration at the initial stage of flame development as varying the position of obstacles, while the effects of mitigating deflagration by 45 mm and 80 mm water mist are decreased. The results will make contributions to design the arrangement of equipment and water mist configuration on the offshore platform or NG-fueled ship's engine room so as to mitigate the gas explosion accident.
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