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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Sobel, Adam H. (검색결과 5 건)
- 무료
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- 유료
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AN EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF GAMES WITH PRE-PLAY COMMUNICATION
KIM, YONG-GWAN,SOBEL, JOEL 한국경제학회 2003 The Korean Economic Review Vol.19 No.1
We consider a finite two-player game augmented by a round of pre-play communication. We show that if outcomes satisfy a stability condition suggested by adaptive dynamics, then pre-play communication effectively eliminates inefficient equilibria. We characterize the set of outcomes that satisfy stability conditions modeled after those used in biological game theory. A stable set of strategies is a closed set of Nash equilibria with the property that no other strategy can invade the population. If players have the same preferences over equilibria, then only the efficient equilibrium payoffs are stable when there is pre-play communication. We introduce a stronger notion of communication stability designed to capture the idea that introducing new words to the language should not destroy the stability of outcomes. A communication stable payoff must be an efficient point in the convex hull of the set of Nash equilibria, and any efficient element in the convex hull of Nash equilibria satisfying a regularity condition can be approximated by the payoff of some communication stable set.
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Propagating versus Nonpropagating Madden-Julian Oscillation Events
Kim, D.,Kug, J.-S.,Sobel, A.H. AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 2014 Journal of climate Vol.27 No.1
Basinwide convective anomalies over the Indian Ocean (IO) associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) sometimes propagate eastward and reach the west Pacific (WP), but sometimes do not. Long-term observations and reanalysis products are used to investigate the difference between the propagating and nonpropagating MJO events. IO convection onset events associated with the MJO are grouped into three categories based on the strengths of the simultaneous dry anomalies over the eastern Maritime Continent and WP. The IO convection anomaly preferentially makes eastward propagation and reaches the WP when the dry anomaly is stronger.Analysis of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget shows that horizontal advection moistens the atmosphere to the east of the positive MSE anomaly associated with the active convection over the IO and is of sufficient magnitude to explain the eastward propagation of the positive MSE anomaly. Interpretation is complicated, however, by lack of closure in the MSE budget. A residual term, of smaller but comparable magnitude to the horizontal advection, also moistens the column to the east of the positive MSE anomaly. Nonetheless, the authors decompose the horizontal advection term into contributions from different scales and find that a dominant contribution is from free-tropospheric meridional advection by the intraseasonal time scale wind anomalies. The positive meridional advection in between the convective and dry anomalies is induced by the anomalous poleward flow, which is interpreted as part of the Rossby wave response to the dry anomaly. The poleward flow advects the climatological MSE, which peaks at the equator, and moistens to the east of IO convective anomaly.
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The Influence of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Short Review
Zane Martin,Seok-Woo Son,Amy Butler,Harry Hendon,Hyemi Kim,Adam Sobel,Shigeo Yoden,Chidong Zhang 한국기상학회 2021 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.10
The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are strongly linked in boreal winter. In this Review, we synthesize observational and modelling evidence for this QBO-MJO connection and discuss its effects on MJO teleconnections and subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. After 1980, observations indicate that, during winters when lower-stratospheric QBO winds are easterly, the MJO is ∼40% stronger and persists roughly 10 days longer compared with when QBO winds are westerly. Global subseasonal forecast models, in turn, show a one-week improvement (or 25% enhancement) in MJO prediction skill in QBO easterly versus QBO westerly phases. Despite the robustness of the observed QBO-MJO link and its global impacts via atmospheric teleconnections, the mechanisms that drive the connection are uncertain. Theories largely centre on QBO-related temperature stratification effects and subsequent impacts on deep convection, though other hypotheses propose that cloud radiative effects or QBO impacts on wave propagation might be important. Most numerical models, however, are unable to reproduce the observed QBO-MJO relationship, suggesting biases, deficiencies or omission of key physical processes in the models. While future work must strive to better understand all aspects of the QBO-MJO link, focus is needed on establishing a working mechanism and capturing the connection in models.
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