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Evolving Toward What? Parties, Factions, and Coalition Behavior in Thailand Today
Paul Chambers 동아시아연구원 2005 Journal of East Asian Studies Vol.5 No.3
How important have Thai parties and intra-party factions been in Thailand’s fast-evolving democracy? What role do they play today, especially since the enactment of the latest constitution? What has accounted for the fragmentation in Thailand’s party systems and coalitions? How did Thai democracy allow for the rise to power of Thaksin Shinawatra? This paper analyzes these questions, presents a theory of Thai coalition behavior, and offers some predictions for Thailand’s democratic future.
The Role of Security Forces in Thailand’s Deep South Counter-Insurgency
Paul Chambers,Napisa Waitoolkiat Institute for International Trade and Cooperation, 2019 Asian International Studies Review Vol.20 No.1
This study looks at the role of Thai state security forces in the Deep South across history until early 2017. These forces include the army, navy, police and paramilitaries and have been tasked with enforcing Thai state policy toward the Deep South since the centralization of power by the Siamese monarchy over this region in 1902. After the 2014 coup, the junta initiated a policy of using both repression and negotiations with insurgent groups to achieve its aims in the Deep South. Meanwhile violence has continued. The study, using historical institutionalism, argues that Thai security forces’ preference for a hard-line policy in the Deep South has resulted in a vicious cycle of tension and violence between security officials and local Malay-Muslims which has not been conducive to peace efforts in the region. Nevertheless, any durable peace will need to satisfy military perceptions of security. Yet what has been the historical trajectory of security policy in the Deep South? What has been the policy of the ruling National Council for Peace and Order military junta toward the region? What is the likelihood of the Thai junta becoming more pragmatic regarding the Deep South in the near future? This study examines these questions.
Edgy Amity along the Mekong: Thai-Lao Relations in a Transforming Regional Equilibrium
Paul Chambers 서울대학교행정대학원 2009 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.17 No.1
In 1994, the opening of the Friendship Bridge commenced an apparent thawing of tiesbetween Thailand and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Out of deep sociohistoricalantagonisms and Cold War acrimony, the two countries seemed suited now foramity. But amity has continued to be edgy. Meanwhile, other countries in the region*China and Vietnam*vie for influence with Thailand over Lao. Amidst a rapidlyintegrating Mekong market and changing regional equilibrium, this study seeks answersto the following questions: What are the most significant Thai-Lao state security interestsand how do they mesh with human security*especially in relation to economic interests?Why do Thailand and Lao currently appear to be highlighting economic ties to thedetriment of military preparedness and human security? How is the shifting equilibriumin the Mekong Region shaping the future of Thai-Lao relations? The study hypothesizesthat despite tensions, in an age of enhanced state-market linkages, Thailand and Laoprioritize economic collaboration over military and human security considerations.
Where Agency Meets Structure: Understanding Civil-Military Relations in Contemporary Thailand
Paul Chambers 서울대학교행정대학원 2011 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.19 No.3
Since 1992, Thailand’s young democracy has sought to ensure civilian control over itsmilitary. Yet since the 2006 coup, the military has become a powerful political actor andThai democracy has eroded. As such, institutionalizing civilian control has becomeparticularly challenging. This article examines civil-military relations in Thailand andargues that while civilian agents have initiated moves towards political outcomes of civilmilitaryrelations, agents’ choices and strategies have only been realized throughthe conditioning of structure*macro-structural, institutional and ideational factors. The study seeks to answer four questions. First, how have structure and agency playedroles in explaining civil-military relations in Thailand’s emerging democracy? Second,what strategies have civilian agents sought to use in attempting to achieve civiliancontrol and what structural factors have conditioned strategy choices? Third, howsuccessful have Thai civilian governments been in achieving control? Finally, what mightbe the future for Thai civil-military relations?
Introduction: Conflict in the Deep South of Thailand : Never-ending Stalemate?
Paul Chambers,Srisompob Jitpiromsri,Napisa Waitoolkiat Institute for International Trade and Cooperation, 2019 Asian International Studies Review Vol.20 No.1
The Introduction to this Special Issue lists the background, principal causes, possible future scenarios and potential solutions to the conflict in Thailand’s Deep South. It also presents summaries of the articles in the Special Issue.
Assessing the Political Clout of Thailand’s “Monarchized” Military in 2023
Paul Chambers 이화여자대학교 국제지역연구소 2024 Asian International Studies Review Vol.25 No.1
Since 1980, Thailand’s monarchy and military have enjoyed a partnership of power with the latter as a junior affiliate — a highly “monarchized military.” However, after 1992, direct military influence across the country diminished, and after the 2006 and 2014 coups, the military regained enormous clout. The country’s post-2019 facade democracy represents the continuation of a tutelary regime involving palace-endorsed military intervention in politics and apparent electoral governance. However, the armed forces-influenced government faces growing domestic challenges. This study examines Thailand’s military in late 2023. 2023 was profoundly significant because a new civilian government entered office that year, which might challenge monarchy-military primacy. The study chiefly asks: To what extent has the monarchy-military partnership clothed itself under the appearance of democracy (while indirectly interfering in it) to sustain its power, and what are the principal challenges this partnership faces? The study finds that in late 2023, Thailand remained a façade democracy, characterized by electoral authoritarianism and lorded over by monarchy and military — a situation the two institutions preferred to maintain.
Unravelling Intra-Party Democracy in Thailand
Aurel Croissant,Paul Chambers 서울대학교행정대학원 2010 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.18 No.2
This survey aims to analyze the state of intra-party democracy (IPD) in Thailand. IPDis defined as a characteristic of the distribution of decision-making power amongmembers and leaders within a political party along the two principal dimensions ofinclusiveness and decentralization. The amount of organizational details that could beused to describe parties’ procedures with regard to all aspects of their internal life isplaced into three generalizable categories: candidate selection, setting party policies, andcoalition formation procedures. In addition, this survey provides some background on theterritorial spread, membership developments and funding practices of political parties. The overall finding is that the degree of internal democracy of political parties inThailand is quite limited. Thai political parties tend to be ‘electoral parties’ with weakorganizations, low policy capacity and vague ideologies. The development of politicalparties since 1997 (and before the 2006 coup) can best be described as a process of partycentralization without institutionalization. This has produced significant consequencesfor the realization of internal democracy within political parties: weak internalorganization decision-making remains largely informal and is controlled by a limitednumber of party elites. This general result has important implications regarding theprospects of party politics in Thailand and democratic consolidation.
The Tragedy of Conflict Irresolution: Peace Dialogue in Southernmost Thailand under Military Rule
Matthew Wheeler,Paul Chambers 이화여자대학교 국제지역연구소 2019 Asian International Studies Review Vol.20 No.1
This study examines the continuing failure of conflict resolution efforts in the case of Thailand’s Deep South or “Patani.” The introduction of an official peace-dialogue process in February 2013 raised hopes that the insurgency in southernmost Thailand might move toward a peaceful resolution. But under two different Thai governments, dialogue between Bangkok and Malay-Muslim militants has foundered. Factors inhibiting successful confidence-building and negotiations include the militants’ disunity and parochialism and the Thai junta’s reluctance to countenance international mediation or devolution of political power. Following Lederach (1997), the study at hand contends that where efforts at conflict resolution occur only at the elite level with no corresponding efforts at the middle and grassroots level, then dialogue is liable to fail, become one-sided or simply lapse into a public relations stunt. Moreover, drawing on interviews with officials and militants, it argues that the structure of the process, including the role of Malaysia as facilitator, must be adjusted for talks to progress. The study also examines political will as a determining factor; although capacity constraints and technical problems pose challenges to a fruitful peace dialogue, they are a less immediate obstacle than the conflict parties’ lack of determination to negotiate a settlement.