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Money Supply Growth and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Levin, Jay H. 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.3
The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the issue of exchange rate dynamics when the central bank undertakes a change in the growth rate of the money supply. The original analysis of exchange rate dynamics, the seminal model of Dornbusch, assumed that the growth rate of the money supply was zero and that the central bank permanently changed the money stock. In reality, however, central banks typically maintain money supply growth targets rather than money stock targets. Therefore, it seems appropriate to re-examine the issue of exchange rate dynamics using the money supply growth rate as the central bank's policy instrument. The paper analyzes the problem using a variable output version of the Dornbusch model. Perhaps the most significant finding in the paper is that money supply growth causes the exchange rate to either overshoot or undershoot. In addition, the real exchange rate depends inversely on the real interest rate during part of the adjustment process, in contrast to the real interest differential model. (JEL Classification: F41)
Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Floating Exchange Rates : A Two-Country Simulation Analysis
Levin, Jay H. 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1991 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.6 No.1
This paper develops a two-country model with sticky nominal wages and prices to examine the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a variable output floating exchange rate framework. The model is and extension of the single country framework developed by Dornbusch [5] in the appendix to his seminal paper on exchange rate dynamics. Such a model permits one to derive short-run policy impacts in the context of the asset market approach to exchange rate determination. The major conclusions of this paper are that monetary expansion in the home country causes the home currency to depreciate, output at home to expand, and output abroad to move in an uncertain direction. Also, the current account may either improve or deteriorate. Moreover, in most cases fiscal expansion in the home country causes the home currency to appreciate, output at home and abroad to expand, and the current account to deteriorate.