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- 저자 : Hosny Amr (검색결과 3 건)
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Do Fixed Exchange Rates Cause Greater Integration?
( Amr Sadek Hosny ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.4
A classic argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime (ERR) has been the promotion of international trade between the pegging country and its base country. Results from previous literature point to a significant and highly positive effect of adopting a fixed ERR on bilateral trade between any given country pair. In this paper, it is argued that these results should not be interpreted as causal effects, since countries do not typically choose their ERR independently of their trade flows. This source of selection bias can be greatly reduced by using the matching approach in estimating treatment effects. Estimates of the effect of fixed ERR using this procedure are close to the ordinary least squares estimates reported in the literature, suggesting that there is little bias in these conventional estimates. These findings are robust to using different propensity score matching methods.
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What does Egypt's Revolution Reveal about its Economy?
Amr Hosny,Magda Kandil,Hamid Mohtadi 한국국제경제학회 2014 International Economic Journal Vol.28 No.4
On the third anniversary of the Egyptian revolution and against the backdrop of lingering political instability and deteriorating economic conditions, we diagnose the constraints to sectoral growth in Egypt using the 2011 Egyptian revolution as a natural experiment. We combine quantile regressions to study sector outliers with a difference in difference methodology to capture sectoral behavior before and after revolution. We find that the revolution's effect has been adverse, on average, but heterogeneous across sectors. We identify and characterize sectors most and least impacted. Results reveal that Egypt's fastest growing sectors before Revolution have been the most vulnerable after Revolution. This evidence is supported by our diagnosis approach that shows that faster growing sectors are constrained by continuous increases in prices that threaten export competitiveness (as they erode the benefits accrued to nominal depreciation of currency). Such sectors also benefited from higher monetary growth and fewer constraints on credit availability that have mitigated somewhat the speed of deterioration in the aftermath of the revolution. Our results, which hold under several robustness checks, inform policy priorities as to how to revive investors’ confidence, boost competitiveness, and design priorities in industrial policy to ease structural impediments and align sectoral growth with macro priorities.
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Remittance Concentration and Volatility: Evidence from 72 Developing Countries
Hosny Amr 한국국제경제학회 2020 International Economic Journal Vol.34 No.4
This paper contributes to the literature by introducing the role of geographic concentration of the source of remittances. Specifically, using data over 2010–2015 for 72 developing countries, we study the impact of (i) large remittances and (ii) the geographic concentration of the source of remittances on economic volatilities. Results suggest that while (i) large remittances can be stabilizing on average, (ii) high remittance concentration from source countries can aggravate economic volatilities in recipient countries. Results are robust to global shocks affecting both source and recipient countries, and volatility in the remittance-sending country.
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