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Exchange-Rate Volatility and Industry Trade between the U.S. and Korea
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE;HANAFIAH HARVEY;SCOTT W. HEGERTY 경제연구소 2012 Journal of Economic Development Vol.37 No.1
Even though numerous empirical studies have investigated the effects of the post-Bretton Woods increase in exchange-rate volatility, they have not reached a consensus whether this uncertainty universally reduces trade flows. As a result, recent studies have employed industry-level data to further isolate the causes of these ambiguous results. In this study, we investigate U.S. trade with South Korea, both at the bilateral level and for 96 U.S. export and 29 U.S. import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on most industries’ exports and imports. In the long run, however, only 16 exporting industries and seven importing industries are affected by volatility (some positively and some negatively). Most affected industries are small, as measured by their trade share.
EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND ITS IMPACT ON COMMODITY TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA
MOHSENBAHMANI-OSKOOEE,HANAFIAH HARVEY 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2017 Journal of Economic Development Vol.42 No.1
Since advent of current float in 1973, the literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows has grown so rapidly that most countries have their own literature and Singapore as our country of concern is no exception. Previous studies have investigated the response of aggregate trade flows of Singapore with the rest of the world to exchange rate volatility and have found mostly insignificant link. In this paper we argue that they all suffer from aggregation bias and concentrate on trade flows between Singapore and her major partner, Malaysia. After disaggregating their trade flows by commodity we find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects in 70 out of 156 exporting industries and in 73 out of 155 importing industries. However, short-run effects last into the long run only in 46 exporting and 36 importing industries. We also find that less than 50% of Singapore’s industries were affected by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.
MOHSENBAHMANI-OSKOOEE,HANAFIAH HARVEY 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2018 Journal of Economic Development Vol.43 No.2
We consider the bilateral trade balance of the U.S. with each of her 13 trading partners from the developing world. When we apply the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001), we find support for the J-curve effect with six partners. However, when we apply Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach to asymmetry analysis, we find support for the J-curve in the U.S. trade with 10 partners. Additionally, while we find support for the short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in almost all cases, the short-run effects translate into the long-run significant asymmetric effects in half of the cases.
EXCHANGE-RATE VOLATILITY AND INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND KOREA
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Hanafiah Harvey,Scott W. Hegerty 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2012 Journal of Economic Development Vol.37 No.1
Even though numerous empirical studies have investigated the effects of the post-Bretton Woods increase in exchange-rate volatility, they have not reached a consensus whether this uncertainty universally reduces trade flows. As a result, recent studies have employed industry-level data to further isolate the causes of these ambiguous results. In this study, we investigate U.S. trade with South Korea, both at the bilateral level and for 96 U.S. export and 29 U.S. import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on most industries’ exports and imports. In the long run, however, only 16 exporting industries and seven importing industries are affected by volatility (some positively and some negatively). Most affected industries are small, as measured by their trade share.
US-Malaysia Trade at Commodity Level and the Role of the Real Exchange Rate
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE,Hanafiah Harvey 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2012 Global economic review Vol.41 No.1
Previous studies that were concerned with the impact of depreciation of the ringgit on the Malaysian trade balance employed data either between Malaysia and rest of the world or between Malaysia and each of her major trading partners. Specifically, the bilateral trade balance between Malaysia and the US is shown to be insensitive to the real bilateral ringgit dollar rate. In this article we wonder if disaggregating trade flows between Malaysia and the US by commodity could help us to discover any significant effects that the real exchange rate could have. We consider 101 industries that export from US to Malaysia and 17 industries that import from Malaysia. While majority of the industries showed short-run sensitivity to the real bilateral exchange rate, short-run effects lasted into the long run almost in half of the industries in both group.
The J-curve: Indonesia vs. Her Major Trading Partners
( Mohsen Bahmani Oskooee ),( Hanafiah Harvey ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2009 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.24 No.4
Couple previous studies that have investigated the J-curve phenomenon for Indonesia, have employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Given the aggregation bias embodied in using trade data between Indonesia and the rest of the world, we disaggregate Indonesian trade data by trading partners and investigate the short-run as well as the long-run effects of the real bilateral exchange rate on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and each of her 13 trading partners. We find evidence of the J-curve effect in five out of 13 trading partners.
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Hanafiah Harvey 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2017 Global economic review Vol.46 No.2
Research on the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance is now moving in a new direction, by investigating whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects. The approach that relies upon separating depreciations from appreciations introduces nonlinearity into the adjustment process and relies upon the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. [2014. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework, in: R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281–314 (Springer)]. When we applied this new method to the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with each of her 11 largest partners, we found adjustment asymmetry in all models, short-run impact asymmetry effects and long-run asymmetry effects in the trade balance models between Malaysia and Asian countries.