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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Chee Herng Lai(Chee Herng Lai ) (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
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Mei Cheng Lim(Mei Cheng Lim),Sarbhan Singh(Sarbhan Singh ),Chee Herng Lai(Chee Herng Lai ),Balvinder Singh Gill(Balvinder Singh Gill ),Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin(Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin ),Ahm 한국역학회 2023 Epidemiology and Health Vol.45 No.-
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak. METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison. RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
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Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia
Md Zamri Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq,Singh Sarbhan,Ghazali Sumarni Mohd,Herng Lai Chee,Dass Sarat Chandra,Aris Tahir,Ibrahim Hishamshah Mohd,Gill Balvinder Singh 한국역학회 2021 Epidemiology and Health Vol.43 No.-
OBJECTIVES: Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. METHODS: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures. RESULTS: We found that the reproduction rate (R value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The movement control measures progressively reduced the R value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.
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