인구억제의 경제적 동인 분석

이말남 한국토지행정학회 1986 토지행정학회편람 Vol.1 No.-

經濟開發計劃의 歷史的 背景

李末南 경북대학교 경상대학 1984 經商論叢 Vol.8 No.-

警察豫算의 構造와 配分에 관한 硏究

이말남 啓明大學校 행동과학연구소 1997 啓明行動科學 Vol.9 No.1

公權力의 資源配分에 대한 이론은 공권력의 증강으로부터 얻는 限界收益과 공권력의 강화에 투입되는 限界費用이 같은 상태가 되도록 資源을 配分하면 공권력으로부터 얻는 순이익은 극대화가 될 수 있다. 공권력이 만들어 내는 순이익의 극대화는 最適의 資源이 공권력의 강화에 투입되어야 함과 동시에 다양한 공권력 활동의 내부에서도 최적의 상태로 배분되어야 함을 요구한다. 이는 여러 공권력의 활동중에서 자원의 再分配가 이루어져도 이 이상 범죄로 인한 사회적 비용을 감소시킬 수 없는 상태에 도달하였음을 의미한다. 1994년 현재 국민총생산액은 3,037,726억원이며 警察의 f象算은 총 26,805 억원에 달하고 있다. 경찰예산이 GNP에서 차지하는 비중은 15년전이나 지금이나 별 차이가 없으며,1994년 현재 GNP의 0.88%에 불과한 실정이다. 경찰예산의 구성은 一般會計와 特別會計로 구성되어 있으나 일반회계의 비중이 95%를 차지하고 있으며, 일반회계중에는 경찰인 건비가 47%-56%를 점유하고 있다. 인건비 다음으로는 사업비로서 25%-42%정도를 차지하고 있다. 우리나라의 총범죄 발생건수의 추이를 보면 1994년 1,373,407건으로 지난 15년 동안 거의 2.5배 이상 증가하였다. 이러한 범죄 발생추세는 경찰관총수의 증가율뿐만 아니라 수사경찰관수의 증가율을 훨씬 능가하는 추세하에 있다. 1979년 경찰예산에서 樓훌費가 차지하는 비중은 1.76%로 나타났으며, 1994년의 경우 그 비중은 1.43%로 오히려 감소된현상을 나타내고 있다. 이러한 현상은 경찰내부의 資源配分面에서도 범죄의 예방과 퇴치에 대한 社會的인 욕구의 증대와는 극히 상치되는 것으로 평가된다. 犯罪事件과 관련된 각종 지표를 보면 수사경찰관수 및 수사비가 대폭 증가된 연도의 경우 각종 범죄사건이 크게 줄어들었다는 사실이다. 따라서 범죄의 예방과 퇴치는 경찰인력의 보강과 수사비의 증가와 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 이를 토대로 수사경찰관수, 수사비, 범죄인의 검거 및 강력범의 검거건수 등 각 변수 상호간의 聯關性에 대한 彈力性의 특징은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 1993년의 경우 수사경찰관수를 1%정도 늘리면 범죄인의 검거는 10%정도 늘어난다. 둘째, 수사경찰관수를 증가시키면 彈力犯罪의 검거율도 증가하나 상대적으로 나타난효과는 총범죄자의 검거율보다는 낮은 것으로 나타나고 있다. 셋째, 경찰수사비를 증가시키면 전반적으로 범죄자의 검거가 늘어나지만 강력범의 검거율은 총범죄자 겁거율보다 낮은 것으로 조사되었다. 넷째, 범죄의 검거에 투입된 수사경찰인력의 增加效果가 상대적으로 높은 것으로 평가된다. 지난 15년동안의 수사경찰의 人件費와 裝備購入費를 대조해 보변 인건비의 비중이 압도적으로 높다. 이러한 현상은 우리나라의 범죄수사 및 검거에 투입되는 公共財의 공급구조는 노동집약적인 형태로 되어 있다. 지금까지의 연구결과에서 밝혀진 바와같이 우리나라는 장비보다 인력의 보강에 집중되었으며, 10년 이상 장기의 경우도 이러한 형태의 資源配分構造를 유지할 것으로 평가된다.

廣東省의 경제성장 요인 분석

李末南 한국경제발전학회 2002 經濟發展硏究 Vol.8 No.2

邱-馬 高速道路의 經濟的 效果 分析

李末南 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1979 經營經濟 Vol.11 No.1

韓國經濟의 長期勞動力 및 雇傭量推計에 관한 硏究

李末南 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1980 經營經濟 Vol.12 No.1

During the past decades of the 1960's and the 1970's, Korea has achieved a remarkable development of the national economy mainly with the successful implementation of development plans. With the rapid economic growth, employment opportunities and conditions have been expanded greatly, and the number of the employed has increased sharply. Major factors contributing to the achievement of the rapid economic development were the leap in exports, businessmen's will toward increasing their investment, successful inducement of foreign capital under favorable domestic and foreign circumstances, and high rates of savings and other fortuitous social conditions. Most noteworthy, among others, was the unlimited supply of labor forces. The Korean labor structure, however, has the following characteristics: First, unlike labor population in advanced countries, the ratio of labor force in the age group between 14 and 20 stands very high, While the ratio of female and aged people participating in economic activities remains low. As a result, even when the infant population is disregarded the adult's burden for supporting dependents is very high. Second, in the supply of labor force, the growth rate of population in productive age has even surpassed the growth arte of total population. The growth rate of economically active population has also topped an increase in the productive-age population. Third, in the aspect of labor demand, the annual growth rate of the employed has exceeded the growth rate of labor supply. However, even when employment increases at a rate higher then now, a surplus of labor population is anticipated to remain because of high fertility rate in the past. With the static assumption which disregards technological progress, no possibility is anticipated for any shortage in labor force by the 1990's

韓國經濟의 長期雇傭量 推計에 關한 硏究

李末南 啓明大學 産業經營硏究所 1974 經營經濟 Vol.5·6 No.-

中國工業의 地域的 再配置政策에 관한 硏究

李末南 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1994 經營經濟 Vol.27 No.2

Of all the national goals pursued by the P.R.C. since 1949, the overriding one has been rapid industrialization. Basic industries such as steel, machine-building and electric power industries received first priority. However, light industry has been accorded a very low priority. In early 1950s the Chinese economy was a dualistic one, comprising a relatively modern sector along the coastal areas and a traditional sector in the vast interior region. The degree of geographic concentration changed little in the early years of communist control. In 1952, industrial output in the seven coastal provinces such as Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong account for 68 percent of the national total. The Chinese authorities regarded this high concentration as irrational, both from the economic point of view and in respect to national defense. It is expensive to ship minerals and raw cotton from their sources in North, Northwest, and Central China to the major metal-processing and textile centers in East China, and the coastal areas are also considered vulnerable to foreign attack. In view of these considerations, the first five year plan called for locating most of the new industrial projects in Northwest, North, and Central China. Of the 694 major projects to be started during 1954-1957, more than two-thirds were to be placed in inland areas. However, the collapse of the great leap and the deterioration of Sino-Soviet relations caused a sharp turn in China's geographic distribution policy. With the sharp decline in Sino-Soviet trade after 1960, China swiftly shifted the diretion of its trade away from the Soviet bloc toward Japan and Western Europe. The old treaty ports along the coast resumed their pivotal position. During 1961-1965, new emphasis was placed on the old industrial bases such as Shanghai, Shenyang, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The year 1969 marked another turning point in the geographic distribution policy. Following repeated military clashes along the Sino-Soviet border in that year, China launched a new drives toward local self-sufficiency and preparedness in the event of a war with Soviet Union. North China, Central China, and the Southwest received additional new investment. However, China's geographic distribution policy in early 1950's has been originated by the fact that the protection of the prodution facilities from foreign attack is urgent. Several points have emerged from the analysis of China's geographic distribution policy. First, production costs for indentical industrial produtions have been much higher in the inland centers than in the old industrial centers because of a lack of supporting industries and the critical shortage of skilled labour. Second, the policy of regional self-sufficiency has caused great waste in capital investment and technical manpower. Third, the concentration of new railways in the inland areas has created another bottleneck for the economy. Since the beginning of the China's open door policy which came in December 1978 at third plenary session of the 11th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, China has attracted and absorbed the foreign technology and capital to contribute to a self-reliant national construction. One of the most significant aspects of the open door policy is the special role and considerable autonomy given to the coastal area. Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangahou, Dalian, Oingdao, Fuzhou, and Xiamen reflected the new geographic distribution policy which was different from the old geographic dispersion policy adopted in early 1950's and 1960's. The ultimate goal of new geographic policy is to enable China to expand its exports and compete in the global market. The new geographic dispersion policy attempts to link the coastal areas with the global market place and to promote export-oriented economic develonment through linkages to the inland areas. However, a complex of economic and political constraints appears likely to hamper implementaion of the new geographic distribution policy. Among the economic factors, there are three fundamental hundles. The first is the saving-investment gap. The expansion of excessive aggregate demand causes excessive demand inflation. The second is the import-export gap which is another economic constraint facing the new geographic distribution policy. The third economic factor is the potential dispute between the imbalance in the development of China's inland economy and the relatively developed coastal economy. The coastal sector in the course of development might integrate with the world market system while the inland sector becomes more isolated.

中國鐵鋼産業의 成長要因과 需要推計에 關한 硏究

李末南 啓明大學校 행동과학연구소 1995 啓明行動科學 Vol.8 No.1

Summary and conclusion The Chinese steel industry reflects, to a certain extent, the significance of the Chinese economy in the world economy. In 1993, China produced 88.7 million tons of crude steel, becoming the world’'s second 1argest steel producer. China was the wor1d's 1argest consumer and importer of steel in 1993. Its apparent steel consumption was 126million tons in 1993. China imported 30 million tons of finished steel in 1993. The growth of the Chinese steel industry can be attributed to several factors. First economic growth increases physical capital stocks through saving and investment, which is conducive to expanding steel production. Second, efficiency in the Chinese steel industry has improved over the past fifteen years as a consequence of economic reforms. Third, technical innovation, international cooperation and technology transfer have 1ed to improvements in production technology. Fourth, specialization and use of imported raw material have allowed China to allocate its resource more efficiently. Fifth,expansion of demand has contributed to growth of production through various ways. Overall, successful policies in promoting high economic growth has been the key. In the rest of this century, China will maintain a favorable development of the national economy, and it is no doubt that the steel industry, as a major supplier of basic material, will keep continous growth. The steel production target in 2,000 has been set at 100-120 million tons, which the industry has been requested to put forth great effort to improve product quality, inσease varieties and save energy to more efficiently satisfy the growing and stricter demand. The Chinese steel industry will re1y main1y on modernizing existing plants, meanwhi1e, it is necessary to have a few up-tσ-date new plants of different kinds to be built. The Baoshan Iron and Steel Complex, the country's most modern steel giant, has started its third phase of construction recently. Baoshan is expected to he1p meet the critical domestic demand for steel products, including tinplate and silicon-steel sheet used in manufacturing automobiles and electric appliance. When completed in 1998, Baoshan will have an annual production capacity of10.75 million tones of crude steel. The anticipated large increase in steel demand and production in China, over the next decade or two, will have a considerable impact on international markets for steel, raw materials, and possibly energy. This suggests the desirability of promoting international or regional cooperation in the steel industry. One specific step that could be taken would be to establish some kind of international or regional steel community to address issues relevant to the international or regional steel industry. Such a community could be able to meet the challenges of large scale increases in steel demand in the process of rapid industrialization in China, and more broadly in East Asia. Huge investment demand, technologies, and environmental issues will be better addressed by such a community.

中共의 農産物 生産構造와 輸出戰略

李末南 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1987 經營經濟 Vol.20 No.1

Agriculture, the mainstay of the Chinese economy for several thousand years, has had a relatively low priority in the overall development plans since the founding of the People's Republic. Although agriculture has fed the one billon population, provided industrial raw materials, and earned foreign exchange, it has received only a minor share of the total state investment since 1949. Consequently, the growth rate of agriculture has lagged far behind that of the industry, and food grain output has slightly exceeded population growth. In modern agriculture, the roles of livestock and forestry often equal or even surpass that of the farming. However, under the guideline of "taking grain as the key link, " Chinese agricultural production has become structurally concentrated in farming to the neglect of the other categories. Consequently, the structural imbalance of farming, forestry and animal husbandry has deepened in China since 1949. China's agriculture has entered the second stage of a revolution that has been in progress since 1978. This new stage, which focuses on improving the marketing system and reducing the Government's role in production and distribution of farm commodities, is a major step in the direction of creating a more efficient, flexible, and market-oriented agricultural system, The new reforms cover both pricing and marketing. The quantity of farm produce that will be purchased by the Government at fixed price is being restricted, and producers must now market a growing share of output at market determined prices. In addition, the Government's marketing agencies no longer stand ready to purchase everything offered fur expanding range of production. The recent reforms have been forced on china's leadership by the dramatic and unanticipated success of policies adopted between 1978 and 1983. These policies, together with rapid growth of fertilizer supplies and rapid adoption of new thechologies for crops such as cotton, brought major changes to the countryside. The changes have been dramatic, affecting not only the level of production but also fundamentally altering the way the farmers live and work. Overall rural production grew 52.4 percent between 1978 and 1984. Crop production, the slowest growing component of output. increased 47 percent. Livestock production gained 71 percent. while other rural sectors -forestry, fisheries, and household sideline production, gained 50 to 100 percent. The commune system is being dismantled and its functions dispersed. Households have become the major farm production unit in the countryside. They have receives rights to farm by set price of land for periods of 15 years or more and to produce on the basis of annual contracts signed with purchasers. Agriculture has become progressively more commercialized. The share of output that is marketed has grown substantially and an increasing share of rural income is received in cash rather than distributed in kind. Production is becoming increasingly specialized as China has moved to take advantage of interregional gains from trade. China's farm exports have increasingly continued to rise and its imports have dropped further since 1983. Exports of corn. cotton, soybeans, and soymeal will remain in competition with U.S. goods, particularly in Asian markets. China is now entering a second stage of agricultural reforms: this includes changing the farm marketing system, limiting the government's role in marketing, freeing farm gate prices, and raising retail prices. The reforms are essential for long-term development in Chinese agriculture.