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      • KCI등재

        아열대 작물의 국내 재배동향 및 주산지 분석

        정우석(U Seok Jeong),김성섭(Seongsup Kim),채용우(Yong-Woo Chae) 한국산학기술학회 2020 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.21 No.12

        본 연구는 국내 아열대 작물의 재배동향을 분석하여 주산지를 도출하고, 정책지원 및 후속 연구의 기초자료를 제시하였다. 분석결과, 망고를 제외한 나머지 아열대 작물의 재배면적은 정체 또는 감소세를 보였다. 망고와 용과의 주산지는 제주도, 파파야는 경상남도, 강황은 전라남도에 재배면적이 집중된 것으로 나타났다. 구아바와 여주는 재배면적과 농가수가 미미하여 주산지의 정의가 어렵고, 아열대 채소인 여주와 강황은 상위 재배면적을 차지한 시군의 분포가 넓은 것으로 나타났다. 모든 작물에서 상위 10개 지역의 재배면적 비중이 높게 나타났으나, 상위 10위권을 매년 유지한 지역은 절반에 그쳤다. 이는 아열대 작물의 도입과 포기, 재배면적의 확대와 축소가 빈번함을 의미한다. 아열대 작물의 보급과 확대는 향후 기후변화에 대한 농업 부문의 선제대응과 농가 신소득 창출의 측면에서 당위성을 가진다. 정부와 농촌진흥기관은 상위 재배면적이 유지되는 지역을 중심으로 재배기술을 정립하고, 재배면적이 축소되는 지역의 기술적 원인을 규명할 필요가 있다. 또한 농가경영 컨설팅을 위한 기초자료의 구축, 지역별 생육 여건을 고려한 맞춤형 재배기술 개발에 연구지원을 확대할 필요가 있다. This study was conducted to derive implications for the dissemination and expansion of subtropical crops in farms. To this end, the cultivation trends and main producing areas of promising subtropical crops in Korea were analyzed. Analysis results found that the cultivation area of crops, excluding mango, was stagnating or decreasing. The main producing areas of domestic subtropical crops are located on Jeju Island (mango, dragon fruit), in Gyeongsangnam-do (papaya), and in Jeollanam-do (turmeric). Guava and Yeoju could not define the main producing area. For all crops, the percentage of cultivated area in the top 10 regions was high, but only half of the regions maintained the ranking. These results imply that the introduction and abandonment of subtropical crops are frequent. The dissemination and expansion of subtropical crops are justifiable in terms of responding to climate change in the future and creating new income for farms. Therefore, government support policies and agricultural promotion agencies need to be established.

      • KCI등재

        실물옵션을 이용한 지열에너지 시스템의 투자 임계점 분석 - 파프리카 농가를 중심으로 -

        정우석 ( U Seok Jeong ),서상택 ( Sang Taek Seo ) 한국축산경영학회 2013 농업경영정책연구 Vol.40 No.1

        This study analyzes the entry threshold of geothermal heat pump system with paprika farming, where the geothermal heat pump system is being disseminated to replace traditional fossil fuel energy system. The geothermal heat pump system lowers the energy cost considerably and alleviates the pressure of the increase of fossil fuel cost that is severely affected by international energy price. For the investment analysis, we adopt real options approach (RO) instead of net present value approach (NPV), where RO applies the concept of financial option to real assets. The results show that the entry threshold with RO is a lot higher compared to that obtained by NPV. This implies that farmers with paprika farming need to consider the irreversibility and uncertainty in the investment analysis. Sensitivity analysis shows the entry threshold is sensitive to the change in parameters used in this study, such as yield, fuel cost, and investment cost. First of all, with the fifty percent subsidy of investment cost, which is currently available, the entry threshold guarantees the profitability of the investment with geothermal heat pump system. This result is robust to the no subsidy of investment cost, too. The entry threshold, however, is sensitive to the change in fuel cost and quantity increased under geothermal heat pump system.

      • KCI등재

        망고 초밀식 화분재배 도입 시설농가의 경제성 평가

        정우석(U Seok Jeong),김성섭(Seongsup Kim) 한국산학기술학회 2021 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.22 No.3

        본 연구는 시설원예 농가의 작목 대안으로 망고 초밀식 화분재배 도입의 경제성을 평가하였다. 기본모형은 전남지역 대표 농가사례로 선정하고, 관행작목에 대한 시나리오를 설정하였다. 작목전환에 따른 경제성은 부분예산분석법을 활용하여 평가하였고, 생산 및 시장 여건을 고려한 민감도 분석 및 손익분기점을 제시하였다. 경제성 분석결과, 모든 관행작목에서 망고 도입에 따른 손실요인의 증가액보다 이익요인의 증가액이 더 크기 때문에 작목전환이 경제적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 모든 관행작목에서 망고 도입의 경제성은 비용 항목의 변동보다 총수입의 변동에 더 민감한 반응을 보였다. 이익의 순변화가 양(+)의 값을 가지는 10a당 생산량과 kg당 농가수취가격은 기본모형이 각각 947kg과 16,600원으로 나타났고, 시나리오별 손익분기점은 파프리카가 1,097kg과 18,508원으로 가장 높았다. 시설참외는 609kg과 10,613원으로 가장 낮은 수준을 나타냈다. 농가사례 및 시나리오별로 제시된 예산 항목별 증감 방향과 증감액 정보는 개별 농가의 여건과 선호에 따른 작목선택의 상세 조건들을 제공한다. 특히, 농가사례의 절반 수준으로 나타난 시나리오별 손익분기점 분석결과는 생산 및 시장위험에 대응한 최소 목표치를 제시한 점에서 의의가 있다. This study evaluated the economic feasibility of facility farms according to the introduction of the ultra-high density pot cultivation (UHDPC) for mango. The basic model was selected as a representative farmhouse case in the Jeonnam region, and seven scenarios for conventional crops were tested. The economic feasibility of crop switching was analyzed through partial budget analysis (PBA). The PBA analysis results were supplemented by adding a sensitivity analysis and a break-even point (BEP) analysis. As a result of the analyses, it was found that crop conversion was economical because the increase in the profit coefficient was greater than the increase in the loss coefficient due to the introduction of mango for all conventional crops. The economics of introducing mango was more sensitive to changes in gross income than to changes in cost items. The results show the detailed conditions of crop selection according to the conditions and preferences of individual farms by presenting the direction of increase and decrease by budget item and information on the amount of increase or decrease. In particular, the BEP analysis result, which is about half of the farms case, is significant in that it presents the minimum target value according to production and market risks.

      • KCI등재

        유류가격의 변동이 농업부문의 물가에 미치는 파급영향 분석

        정우석 ( U Seok Jeong ),서상택 ( Sang Taek Seo ),한두봉 ( Doo Bong Han ) 한국축산경영학회 2013 농업경영정책연구 Vol.40 No.1

        This study was performed to analyze the effect of changes in oil price on the price level of agricultural products in Korea. For the study, Input- Output model with basic industry sectors produced by year 2009 was used. The model with year 2009 was incorporated with household consumption sector and/or was compared with the model with year 2003 for further analysis. Two scenarios with ten percent change and historical change of oil price were analyzed. Results show that price effects of agricultural products caused by changes in oil price were highest in diesel followed by gasoline and kerosene. These effects were increased with the incorporation of household consumption. These effects were higher in year two thousand five than in year two thousand nine in both diesel and kerosene. The opposite result, however, was obtained in gasoline.

      • KCI등재

        농지은행 경영회생지원사업 농지환매권에 대한 실물옵션가치 추정-충북지역을 중심으로-

        정우석 ( U Seok Jeong ),서상택 ( Sangtaek Seo ) 한국축산경영학회 2014 농업경영정책연구 Vol.41 No.1

        Among the dobt policies are business recovery program provided by Farmland Bank. Farmers with the program are given the redemptive right for the farmland during the program period of seven years. Thus farmers need to make a decision when to exercise the redemptive right. A real options with binomial distribution approach is adopted for this purpose. Farmlands includeonly paddy field in Chungbuk province to exclude the possibility of speculative transaction. Results show that an early exercise with convenience yield(CY) can take place, but not with net convenience yield(NCY). In addition, optimal exercise with NCY is made at the maturity of seven years. Americano ption value is greater than European option value when CY is involved. On the other hand, both values are the same under NCY consideration because exercise is only made at the maturity in both cases. Sensitivity analysis shows that option value is increasing with interest rate, volatility of farmland price, and loan rate but decreasing with deposit rate. The results imply that farmers need to exercise the redemptive right optimally by observing the flow of farmland price. And development of supporting system for farmers` decision making and consulting activities are required.

      • KCI등재

        논벼 무경운재배의 온실가스 감축효과를 고려한 경제성 분석

        정우석(U Seok Jeong),김성섭(Seong sup Kim),서상택(Sang taek Seo),김숙진(Sook jin Kim) 한국농식품정책학회 2017 농업경영정책연구 Vol.44 No.4

        This study performed an economic analysis for no-till practice of paddy rice compared with traditional till practice of paddy rice. The effect of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil and agricultural machinery was added to economic outcome of no-till practice. Experimental data of GHG and yield by practices were obtained from National Institute of Crop Science and partial budgeting method was adopted for the analysis. Results showed that GHG reduction from no-till practice was very large in soil compared with agricultural machinery. The economic outcome of no-till practice was larger than that of traditional till practice even when it did not contain GHG reduction effect. In addition, no-till practice showed positive economic performance regardless of the ownership for agricultural machinery. The results of this study are expected to be highly useful as legitimacy of policy support for no-till paddy rice practice.

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