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신호접근법을 이용한 건화물시장 해운조기경보모형에 관한 연구
윤정노(Jeong-No Yun),김가현(Ga-Hyun KIm),류동근(Dong-Keun Ryoo) 한국항해항만학회 2018 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.42 No.1
해운산업은 파생적 수요의 특성으로 대외적 요인에 영향을 크게 받는다. 하지만, 공급 측면은 이러한 수요의 변화에 즉각적으로 대응할 수 없는 특성 때문에 해운산업은 호황과 불황을 거듭하게 된다. 그러므로 정부는 이러한 상황에 대응하기 위해 조기경보모형을 구축해 시장을 모니터링하고 다가올 위험을 예측하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 신호접근법을 사용해 조기경보모형을 구축하였으며, 위기지수는 BDI를 사용해 정의하였으며 금융, 경제, 선박 등 다양한 선행지수를 활용해 종합선행지수를 도출하였다. 그 결과, 종합선행지수가 해운분야의 실제 위기지수와 비교해 4개월의 시차를 두고 높은 상관관계를 보였고, QPS(Quadratic Probability Score)가 0.37로 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타 났다. Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index’s QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.
양진국 ( Yang Jin-kook ),박영덕 ( Park Young-duk ),김기남 ( Kim Ki-nam ),이석봉 ( Lee Seok-bong ),윤정노 ( Yun Jeong-no ) 한국건축시공학회 2022 한국건축시공학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.22 No.1
Inter-floor noise in an apartment building is a serious problem that causes conflicts between tenants. Accordingly, there are various attempts to solve this problem, but it is not easy to find a clear solution. Therefore, in this study, a soundproofing material between floors was developed that can improve the sagging that occurs after construction. And as a result of testing the developed interlayer soundproofing material, both light weight and weight were grade 1. And it was analyzed that maintenance performance could be improved with integrated structural characteristics.