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마이크로그리드 전력 거래를 위한 기준부하 추정 방법에 대한 연구
위영민,Wi, Young-Min 한국전기전자학회 2018 전기전자학회논문지 Vol.22 No.2
전력 시스템의 환경이 변화함에 따라 새로운 전기 에너지 시장에 대한 수요와 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 특히 수요반응 프로그램을 활용하여 전력 사용 효율을 높이기 위한 노력은 선진국에서 지속적으로 연구되고 있으며 실제 시장으로 운영되고 있다. 본 논문은 수요반응, 마이크로그리드 간 거래, P2P 전력 거래 등 새로운 전력 시장에서 요구되는 기준부하 추정 방법에 대한 연구를 담고 있다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 기준부하추정 방법은 마이크로그리드 수요자원에 대한 분석을 바탕으로 기준부하추정 알고리즘을 선택하게 하였으며, 실제 데이터를 활용하여 제안된 방법의 실효성을 입증하였다. As the environment of power systems changes, the demand and necessity for new electrical energy market are increasing. Especially, efforts to increase the efficiency of electric energy use by using demand response programs are being studied constantly in advanced countries and it is operated as a real market. This paper presents a study on the baseline load estimation required in the new power market, such as demand response, P2P electricity trading etc. The proposed method estimates the baeline load through analysis of the load pattern and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method using actual data.
시계열 모형을 이용한 단기 풍력 단지 출력 지역 통합 예측에 관한 연구
위영민(Young-Min Wi),이재희(Jaehee Lee) 대한전기학회 2016 전기학회논문지 Vol.65 No.6
As the number of wind farms operating has increased, the interest of the central unit commitment and dispatch for wind power has increased as well. Wind power forecast is necessary for effective power system management and operation with high wind power penetrations. This paper presents the centralized wind power forecasting method, which is a forecast to combine all wind farms in the area into one, using time series models. Also, this paper proposes a prediction model modified with wind forecast error compensation. To demonstrate the improvement of wind power forecasting accuracy, the proposed method is compared with persistence model and new reference model which are commonly used as reference in wind power forecasting using Jeju Island data. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed wind power forecasting method.
풍력발전 출력 예측오차 완화를 위한 출력제한운전과 ESS운전의 경제성 비교
위영민(Young-Min Wi),조형철(Hyung-Chul Jo),이재희(Jaehee Lee) 대한전기학회 2018 전기학회논문지 Vol.67 No.2
Wind power forecast is critical for efficient power system operation. However, wind power has high forecasting errors due to uncertainty caused by the climate change. These forecasting errors can have an adverse impact on the power system operation. In order to mitigate the issues caused by the wind power forecasting error, wind power curtailment and energy storage system (ESS) can be introduced in the power system. These methods can affect the economics of wind power resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economics of the methods for mitigating the wind power forecasting error. This paper attempts to analyze the economics of wind power curtailment and ESS operation for mitigating wind power forecasting error. Numerical simulation results are presented to show the economic impact of wind power curtailment and ESS operation.
온도 효과를 고려한 다항 회귀분석법을 이용한 특수일 최대 전력 수요 예측 알고리즘
위영민(Young-Min Wi),문국현(Guk-Hyun Moon),이재희(Jae-Hee Lee),주성관(Sung-Kwan Joo),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2007 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2007 No.11
본 논문은 특수일 전력 수요 예측을 위해 온도 효과를 고려한 데이터 추출법을 이용하여 특수일 전력 수용 예측 오차율을 감소시키는 방법을 제시한다. 제안된 기법의 타당성을 확인하기 위해 논문에서는 통계학에서 사용되는 결정계수를 이용한다. 결정계수를 이용하여 온도효과의 고려 여부가 오차율에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 또한 제안된 기법은 1996년 특수일 오차율을 기존 논문의 결과와 비교 분석하여 기존 방식 대비 특수일 전력 수요예측 관련 우수성을 보였으며, 최근 데이터인 2006년 특수일 전력 수요 예측을 통하여 검증하였다.
풍력발전 설비 효율화를 위한 다변량 분석을 이용한 풍력발전단지 단기 출력 예측 방법
위영민(Young-Min Wi) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2015 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.29 No.7
This paper presents short-term wind farm power forecasting method using multivariate analysis and time series. Based on factor analysis, the proposed method makes new independent variables which newly composed by raw independent variables such as wind speed, ramp rate, wind power. Newly created variables are used in the time series model for forecasting wind farm power. To demonstrate the improved accuracy, the proposed method is compared with persistence model commonly used as reference in wind power forecasting using data from Jeju Island. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method.
위영민(Young-Min Wi) 대한전기학회 2017 전기학회논문지 Vol.66 No.5
Climate change and energy security are major factors for future national energy policy. To resolve these issues, many countries are focusing on creating new growth industries and energy services such as smartgrid, renewable energy, microgrid, energy management system, and peer to peer energy trading. The financial and economic evaluation of new energy services basically requires energy savings estimation technologies. This paper presents the baseline load estimation method, which is used to calculate energy savings resulted from participating in the new energy program, using moving average model with heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) adjustment. To demonstrate the improvement of baseline load estimation accuracy, the proposed method is tested. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed baseline load estimation method.
기상 확률 모델 및 기상 민감도를 이용한 연중 주별 전력수요 예측에 관한 연구
위영민(Young-Min Wi),민용기(Yongki Min) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2016 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.30 No.5
Load forecasting is an essential component for operating and planning power systems. There are various prediction time horizons in accordance with applications. This paper proposes a forecasting model for mid-term load forecasting which is used for planning electricity supply and demand, electrical equipment maintenance schedule, and demand response programs. This paper presents weekly peak load forecasting method using time series and temperature sensitivity model with temperature stochastic modeling. Using Monte-Carlo simulation, the proposed method can also make probability distribution of weekly peak loads. The results of case studies show the effectiveness of the proposed load forecasting method.
시계열 모델을 이용한 인센티브 기반 수요반응 프로그램 설계
위영민(Young-Min Wi),문국현(Guk-Hyun Moon),김민경(Min-Kyung Kim),주성관(Sung-Kwan Joo),오재철(Jae-Chul Oh) 대한전기학회 2010 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2010 No.7
본 논문에서는 계통운영자 및 LA (Load Aggregator) 사업자가 수요반응 프로그램 상세 설계 시 필요한 수요반응 횟수와 수요반응Demand Response) 지속 시간 산정을 위한 알고리즘을 제시 하였다. 수요반응 프로그램 횟수와 지속 시간을 추정하기 위해 본 논문에서는 시계열 모델을 이용하여 최대 전력수요 예측을 진행하였고, 과거 부하지속곡선 (Load Duration Curve) 를 이용하여 수요반응 프로그램 설계 시 필요한 수요반응 횟수와 지속 시간을 추정하였다. 또한 제안된 방법을 국내 전력수요 데이터를 이용한 사례연구 수행 결과를 예시하였다.
특수일 최대 전력 수요 예측을 위한 결정계수를 사용한 데이터 마이닝
魏永民(Young-Min Wi),宋敬彬(Kyung-Bin Song),朱成官(Sung-Kwan Joo) 대한전기학회 2009 전기학회논문지 Vol.58 No.1
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an important task in power system planning and operation. Its accuracy affects the reliability and economic operation of power systems. STLF is to be classified into load forecasting for weekdays, weekends, and holidays. Due to the limited historical data available, it is more difficult to accurately forecast load for holidays than to forecast load for weekdays and weekends. It has been recognized that the forecasting errors for holidays are large compared with those for weekdays in Korea. This paper presents a polynomial regression with data mining technique to forecast load for holidays. In statistics, a polynomial is widely used in situations where the response is curvilinear, because even complex nonlinear relationships can be adequately modeled by polynomials over a reasonably small range of the dependent variables. In the paper, the coefficient of determination is proposed as a selection criterion for screening weekday data used in holiday load forecasting. A numerical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed holiday load forecasting method.