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North Korea’s Nuclear Armament and China’s Strategic Dilemma
왕양청 (사) 한국전략문제연구소 2009 전략연구 Vol.- No.46
Recently, the security and stability in Korean Peninsula highly attracts global attentions for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched a series of missile tests and conducted an underground nuclear test. The tension in the Peninsula seems to be escalating. The United Nations Security Council members unanimously adopted Resolution 1874. It imposed a series of tougher sanctions on the DPRK. The People’s Republic of China holds its hedging strategy to the DPRK in different dimensions. For its long-term stance, China urges North Korea to live up to its commitment to denuclearization in Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China calls for a calm response from all parties concerned and urges them to pursue peaceful resolution of the current situation provoked by North Korea through consultation and dialogue. How long China holds its hedging strategy depends on China and DPRK’s common interests. Therefore, studying China’s strategic intention and its military buildup is helpful to understand whether China is going to adjust its stance in the near future. Based on China’s strategic intention, its military build-up is the backbone for China to carryout its intention. Therefore, military modernization becomes China’s priority while its economic rapidly rises. Two very important factors must be taken into account while analyzing China’s perspective on the possibilities of the changes of military balance in Korean Peninsula. The first one is the willing of both the DPRK and China. The second one is the stability of the domestic situation in North Korea, especially during the power transition period. If North Korea continuously processes its nuclear program, the military balance would be changed asymmetrically. The situation of military imbalance can be divided into strategic and conventional levels. The strategic imbalance is to lean to the North, while the conventional one is to lean into the South in the Peninsula. In the recent years, China doesn’t take harsh actions toward North Korea even if China is strongly demanded by the international community. At the current stage, how it should act is a strategic dilemma for China. How much influence China has on North Korea is one of the key factors for China. The international community expects China to do more efforts on this issue. Then, whether China takes harsh reaction to the DPRK and how China takes its actions are China’s strategic dilemma. If North Korea successfully accomplished its nuclear program, it would offer Japan and the ROK an excellent excuse to initiate their nuclear development programs. Then, China’s strategic superiority over the regional countries may fade, which doesn’t meet China’s national interests. To study China’s possible actions to the current development in Korean Peninsula, both strategic cultures of China and North Korea need to be studied. In the near future, Korean Peninsula remains as one of the potential flashpoints in the region. Descending the tension is the expectation from the international community. How to bridge the gap is the cornerstone for resolving the current crisis. How China acts and how North Korea responds are followed by what China wants and what North Korea intends to. Without understanding mutual strategic cultures and their ultimate wants, the outcome may cause the situation worse. Recently, the security and stability in Korean Peninsula highly attracts global attentions for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched a series of missile tests and conducted an underground nuclear test. The tension in the Peninsula seems to be escalating. The United Nations Security Council members unanimously adopted Resolution 1874. It imposed a series of tougher sanctions on the DPRK. The People’s Republic of China holds its hedging strategy to the DPRK in different dimensions. For its long-term stance, China urges North Korea to live up to its commitment to denuclearization in Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China calls for a calm response from all parties concerned and urges them to pursue peaceful resolution of the current situation provoked by North Korea through consultation and dialogue. How long China holds its hedging strategy depends on China and DPRK’s common interests. Therefore, studying China’s strategic intention and its military buildup is helpful to understand whether China is going to adjust its stance in the near future. Based on China’s strategic intention, its military build-up is the backbone for China to carryout its intention. Therefore, military modernization becomes China’s priority while its economic rapidly rises. Two very important factors must be taken into account while analyzing China’s perspective on the possibilities of the changes of military balance in Korean Peninsula. The first one is the willing of both the DPRK and China. The second one is the stability of the domestic situation in North Korea, especially during the power transition period. If North Korea continuously processes its nuclear program, the military balance would be changed asymmetrically. The situation of military imbalance can be divided into strategic and conventional levels. The strategic imbalance is to lean to the North, while the conventional one is to lean into the South in the Peninsula. In the recent years, China doesn’t take harsh actions toward North Korea even if China is strongly demanded by the international community. At the current stage, how it should act is a strategic dilemma for China. How much influence China has on North Korea is one of the key factors for China. The international community expects China to do more efforts on this issue. Then, whether China takes harsh reaction to the DPRK and how China takes its actions are China’s strategic dilemma. If North Korea successfully accomplished its nuclear program, it would offer Japan and the ROK an excellent excuse to initiate their nuclear development programs. Then, China’s strategic superiority over the regional countries may fade, which doesn’t meet China’s national interests. To study China’s possible actions to the current development in Korean Peninsula, both strategic cultures of China and North Korea need to be studied. In the near future, Korean Peninsula remains as one of the potential flashpoints in the region. Descending the tension is the expectation from the international community. How to bridge the gap is the cornerstone for resolving the current crisis. How China acts and how North Korea responds are followed by what China wants and what North Korea intends to. Without understanding mutual strategic cultures and their ultimate wants, the outcome may cause the situation worse.
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