발생액 평가에 대한 투자자와 재무분석가의 비교

이성균(Lee, Sung Kyun),오환종(Oh, Hwan Jong),양동재(Yang, Dong Jae) 한국국제회계학회 2012 국제회계연구 Vol.0 No.46

발생액과 영업현금의 지속성이 차이를 보인다고 할 때, 기업의 이해관계자들이 이러한 차이를 어떻게 인식하고 있는지 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 이에 본 연구는 미래이익에 대해 발생액이 지니고 있는 의미를 이해관계자들이 자신들의 의사결정과정에 합리적으로 반영하고 있는지를 검증한다. 본 연구에서는 투자자들과 함께 재무분석가들이 발생액의 지속성을 얼마나 정확히 파악하는지 살펴봄으로써 이들의 이익예측능력을 비교하고자 한다. 본 연구의 목적을 달성하기 위한 연구모형은 다음과 같다. 먼저 발생액에 대한 투자자들의 가치평가오류(mispricing)를 검증하기 위해 Mishkin(1983) 검증과 OLS 회귀검증을 실시하였다. Mishkin 검증은 발생액에 대해 객관적인 실제 지속성과 투자자들이 부여하는 주관적인 지속성을 비교하기 위한 분석이다. OLS 회귀검증은 통제변수의 포함을 통해 보다 강건한 결과를 얻기위한 것으로서 종속변수는 미래규모조정수익률(SAR)이며, 독립변수는 발생액(TAC), 영업현금(CFO), 주가-장부가비율(PBR), 시장가치(LMVE) 및 당기규모조정수익률(SAR)이다. 다음으로 발생액에 따른 재무분석가들의 예측정확성을 검증하기 위해 추가적인 OLS 회귀검증을 실시하였다. 종속변수인 재무분석가의 미래이익예측오차(FAFE)는 미래 실제이익에서 예측이익을 차감하는 방식으로 측정하였다. 주된 독립변수는 발생액(TAC)이며, 통제변수로는 기업규모(SIZE), 부채비율(LEV), 재무분석가수(FOLL), 예측기간(DATE)을 사용하였다. 1999년부터 2007년까지 한국증권거래소에 상장된 기업들을 대상으로 한 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 투자자들의 가치평가오류를 검증한 결과 이익집단에서는 투자자들이 발생액의 지속성을 과대평가하는 현상이 나타난 반면 손실집단에서는 발생액의 지속성을 과대평가하는 현상이 나타나지 않았다. 둘째, 이익집단을 benchmark로 활용하여 재무분석가의 예측정확성을 검증한 결과 발생액이 이익예측오차에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 예측기간에 상관없이 발생액이 이익예측오차에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미쳤으나 예측기간이 짧아짐에 따라 발생액에 따른 과대예측 경향이 줄어들고 있다는 증거는 찾을 수 없었다. Given that accrual component of earnings is less persistent than other component, firms with high accruals are more likely to experience future earnings problems. In this point of view, we need to investigate whether firms" stakeholders can anticipate the predictable future earnings declines associated with high accrual and consider them in advance in their decision making. Specifically, I examine two types of stakeholders: investors and financial analysts. In order to test whether stock prices efficiently reflect future earnings implication of accruals, this study employed Mishkin(1983) and OLS regression tests. The dependent variable is size-adjusted return(SAR) for year t+1 and the main independent variable is total accruals(TAC), cash flow from operations(CFO) and other control variables. This study also employed OLS regression tests to test whether financial analysts" forecasts rationally incorporate the extent to which accruals persist into future. The dependent variable is financial analyst" forecast error(FAFE) calculated by realized earnings for year t+1 less monthly forecasted earnings. The independent variables are total accruals and other control variables. The major findings can be summarized as follows: First, the evidences show that there is a difference between profit- and loss-reporting firms in the market mispricing. That is, investors overestimate the persistences of accruals for the only profit-reporting firms. Second, the results show that TAC have negative relationship with FAFE. This evidence imply that the degree of over-optimism is greater for high accrual firm. Third, the results from regressions conducted for each of the 12 months between the announcements of current year"s earnings and next year"s earnings show that the coefficients of TAC are significantly negative for all of 12 month regressions. However, The degree of over-optimism associated with high accruals does not decline over the 12 months.

우리나라 農協의 財務管理에 관한 硏究 : 資金의 調達 및 運用과 損益을 中心으로

吳煥鍾 군산대학교 1983 群山水産專門大學 硏究報告 Vol.17 No.2

During the past twenty years, our Agricultural Cooperatives has grown the kernelled body of rural social development through putting in good order of organization base and development enlargement of farmer's support subject. The while, it has been persistently the growth and development in every direction. But so far it has some problems to be solved in financial management field. Through these studies, we have concluded as follows as possible means to improve the functions of the financial management in Agricultural Cooperatives. 1.Development amplification of deposits and mutual credit; As Agricultural Cooperatives do its best development amplification of deposits and mutual credit, Agricultural Cooperatives must increase the self-supporting agricultural credit by funds enlargement mobilization. 2.Construction expansion of equity capital; The equity capital should be expanded as level as invested amount of fixed assets through improvement of investment system, namely dividend ratio rasing about subscribed capital and so forth. 3.Independence of agricultural financing; In the end agricultural funds should be solved the Agricult ural Cooperatives for itself, while an age of transition it solves by strengthening of government supporting. 4.Self-regulating guarantee of funds working; The promotion of financial liquidity and self-regulating of funds working should be guaranted. For exemple the excess itself funds burden hampers the efficiency and individuality of funds working in order to excute policy business. 5.Putting forth strength of earnings and expenses improvement: The earnings and expenses improvement should be positively concentrated effort by rational working of funds, budgets efficiency execution , labor productivity elevation, rationalization of internal management and rasing dealings charge at policy business and so on. 6.The public interest rate level payment of dividend rate: To expand the subscribed capital production, the dividend rate on subscribed capital should be payed as rate as one-t imp deposits rate. 7.Introduction of management technique and security of skilled manager: To minimize the inefficiency of financial management, Agricultural Cooperatives must secure the skilled manager and introduce the management technique. 8.Mutual credit practice of the Special Agricultural Cooperatives: Existing 42 Special Agricultural Cooperatives must execute the mutual credit step by step starting from Special Agricultural Cooperative with good management surroundings. 9.Autonomous selection of policy funds borrower: In present the policy funds borrower who are selected by the administrative organization should be selected by the Agricultural Cooperatives. Because it is desirable to do a continuous operation from the choice of borrower to collection of funds for effective guidence credit.

水産業協洞組合의 共濟事業에 관한 硏究

吳煥種 군산대학교 1982 群山水産專門大學 硏究報告 Vol.16 No.2

Insurance work of Fisheries Cooperatives which is managed for the benefit of the fishers living in Korea has been taking a important role not only as a means to modernize our fishing village but also as a supplementary means to reinforce our social welfare systems. So as to know if our Fisheries Cooperatives Insurance works in this area justly well or not, we have prepared this report by performing in comparative analysis on materials gathered from the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperatives, National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, 6 private life insurance companies and the Japan Fishery Cooperatives. In addition, out of the data from the national trend survey on life insurance business in Korea by the Korea Insurance Corporation and Life Insurance Association of Korea. Through these studies, we have concluded as follows as possible means to improve the functions of Fisheries Cooperatives Insurance. 1.Currently Selling Products and New Products Developments: The 3 kinds of mutual aid in life section and the other 5 kinds in non-life section don't have any special characteristics in comparison with the products of the private life insurance companies. The products appropriate to the needs and desires of the member fishers should be developed, in other words fisheries disaster compansation plan or fishers health protection plan should be developed. 2.Diversification of Underwriting and premium-paying Methods : The Fisheries Cooperatives does its under-writing works together with its other activities without diversifying the former and the latter clearly. So it is necessary to recruit the professional underwriters and the selling agents and to diversify the premium paying methods by adding the various methods like monthly payments, quarterly payments and biannual payments methods to the currently most common annual payments method. 3.Aggrandizements of the Benefits for the Member fishers : The benefits of tax examption should be extended to the member fishers who have not been tax so far, and most of the Cooperative assets gathered from the fishers should be returned to them in principle. 4.Efficiency of Cooperative Assets Management : To increase the policy holders, Cooperative assets should be managed on the principle of maximization of profitability, safety, and liquidability. Since the merits of mutual aid and insurance lie in the benefits of protection and dividend incomes, the Fisheries Cooperatives should exert itself, as in the advanced countries to give the public an impression that insurance is better than term deposits in commercial banks. 5.Reinforcement of Public-Relations Activities : Public-Relations activities should be reinforced not only to increase the potential needs among the public but also to convert the potential into the practical purchasing power. And the conventional P. R. activities should be diversified for example by visiting the prospective clients in order to improve their viewpoints about the Fisheries Cooperatives Insurance.

轉換社債에 관한 硏究 : 評價理論 및 發行狀況을 中心으로

盧德煥,吳煥鐘 군산대학교 산업개발연구소 1987 産業開發硏究 Vol.6 No.-