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해석가능 인공지능을 활용한 바이오화학 기술의 비즈니스 잠재성 평가
이지호(Jiho Lee),이승현(Seunghyun Lee),손은수(Eunsoo Sohn),윤장혁(Janghyeok Yoon),이재민(Jae-Min Lee) 대한산업공학회 2023 대한산업공학회지 Vol.49 No.3
Since the fossil fuel-based industry significantly contributes to air pollution and climate change, better living through fossil fuel has come at a cost. In this connection, Bio-based chemical technologies based on reusable biomass such as cells or other living things are receiving great attraction. But at the same time, they are considered as high-risk investments that require a long-term effort to be adopted by businesses. Therefore, building on a common academic consensus that there is a strong correlation between patent lifetime and business potential, this study proposes a machine learning model to predict the lifetime of bio-based chemical technologies. To this end, CAS (Chemical Abstract Service) patent database and PATSTAT (Worldwide Patent Statistical Database) are used to identify global bio-based chemical technology patents. The proposed model identifies bio-based chemical technologies that have high business potential with an accuracy of 81%. Further, the application of an explainable AI algorithm to the model found that the geographical scope of technologies and the size of stakeholders of a business significantly influence the business potential of bio-based chemical technologies. Our research results can be used for the investment and management process for bio-based chemical technologies with high business potential.
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