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중국의 지역패권화 가능성과 한계 - 남중국해 분쟁사례를 중심으로 -
석두식 ( Seok¸ Doo-sik ) 한국군사학회 2020 군사논단 Vol.104 No.-
The purpose of this research is to analyze the possibility of Chinese regional hegemony and its restraints in the East Asia. China’s movement for its hegemony has restrains such as development, integration, and regime issues, and issues of development are closely related to the later two as regional unbalancing as the example. South China Sea disputes in 2015 and 2020 share the same fact that the claims of the United States and China confront; international water and exercise of sovereignty, however, the distinctive point is given by the increasing intensity of disputes and it would likely to be extended as the competition for hegemony. Considering China’s movements in its national development strategy, hegemonic approaches, and augmentation of military power, Chinese intention to achieve maritime and regional hegemony in the East Asia becomes much specific. However, China’s vulnerability of growth power comparing to capabilities of the United States, regime instability due to issues of human rights and ethnic groups, and antipathies of surrounding states against Chinese pursuit of national interests provide limitations for China to achieve the regional hegemony in a near future. Rule of power and mobilization of military strength of China shown in disputes of South China Sea are also being presented on the Korean peninsula. Along with diplomatic efforts, an increase of naval capability against illegal entries of China. A realistic reasoning on requests for cooperation and support to the United States and China must be carefully considered, and mitigate risks by reducing the dependency on trades with China.
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