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박천규(Chungyu Park) 한국주택학회 2009 주택연구 Vol.17 No.2
이 연구에서는 부동산시장 조기경보시스템을 보완할 수 있고, 현재 주택시장에 대한 위험의 정보를 종합적으로 보여줄 수 있는 주택시장스트레스지수(Housing Market Stress Index, 이하 HSI)를 개발하고자 한다. HSI 추세를 살펴보면, 주택가격이 크게 상승하였던 2000년대 초반에 크게 높았으며, 2006년 하반기에 일시적으로 크게 상승한 적이 있었다. 2008년 9월 현재 HSI는 20으로 2000년대 이후 가장 낮은 수치로 주택시장이 급격한 침체상황을 겪고 있다는 것을 알려주고 있다. 2001년, 2002년, 2003년, 2006년 하반기 확장위기가 발생하였으며, 수축위기는 현재인 2008년 9월에 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 향후 부동산시장 진단 및 예측과 관련하여 HSI의 활용성이 매우 높아질 것이라고 판단된다. 특히 HSI가 부동산시장 조기경보시스템과 함께 사용될 경우 현재 시장상황에 대한 진단 및 미래 시장에 대한 예측 능력 제고에 크게 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 이 연구는 금융부문의 스트레스지수를 주택시장에 접목한 연구로서 의미있는 시도로 생각되지만, 몇 가지 한계가 있으며 이를 보완한 지속적인 연구가 필요하다. This study aims to develop the housing market stress index which is regarded as an important analysis tool in the financial sector. This study comprises of three chapters. Chapter Ⅰ introduces the background and the purpose of the study and reviews various past researches mainly related to the financial stress index. In chapter Ⅱ, the housing stress index is developed following the five steps. The first step is to classify the sub sectors of housing market, such as space market, asset market and etc. Following the selection of the variables representing the sub sectors of housing markets in the second step, the third step is to adjust the variables to the same direction over time. The forth step is the transformation of the variables using their sample CDFs. In the last step, the transformed variables are combined into a single index. Chapter Ⅲ is summary and conclusions. The housing market stress index increased greatly in 2001, 2002, 2003 and the second half of 2006 compared to the other times and recently suffers a big plunge.
박천규(Park Chungyu),이영(Lee Young) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2011 國土計劃 Vol.46 No.3
Total fertility rate was reduced from 4.53 in 1970 to 1.59 in 1990 in Korea. Total fertility rate continued to decrease and in 2005, recorded 1.08, the lowest among OECD countries. The Korean government concerned that it will cause a negative effect on potential economic growth in Korea. The Korean government is implementing various policies to raise fertility rate. In the housing sector, the government is supplying housing especially to multi-child families who have 3 or more children for encouragement of childbirth. The theme of this study is the relation between children and housing consumption. This study empirically analyzes the effects of the number of children on the housing demand. The summary of the findings and the implications of the study is as follows. First, the first and the second child genders are an effective instrument variable for the multi-child family. Although there are different aspects in analytical results using instrumental variables by housing occupancy type, usefulness of instrumental variables was identified in housing consumption analysis. Second, as shown in analytical results, multi-child families are shown to reduce housing consumption. This means that housing consumption of main policy target of special housing supply program being implemented by the government is in unfavorable condition.