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경제변수 및 미디어데이터를 이용한 관광객의 방한 요인분석
박소언(Soe On Park),이군희(Gun Hee Lee),이인혜(In Hye Lee) 한국관광연구학회 2015 관광연구저널 Vol.29 No.7
In April of 2013, the number of Japanese tourists to Korea fell behind that of Chinese tourists. Since then, Chinese visitors have been steadily increasing, while Japanese tourism to Korea has seen steady decline. In this study, we investigate the factors for the increasing number of Chinese and decreasing number of Japanese tourists to Korea. We use not only macroeconomic variables, such as foreign exchange rates and GDP, but we also analyze negative media exposure to the Japanese, the Korean wave of entertainment and drama, natural disasters, and so on. For more sophisticated results, we use Broken Line Regression to estimate the turning point of the time series trend with seasonality controlled for. In this study it is shown that, first, the number of visitors from Japan to Korea is heavily influenced by the exchange rate, followed by GDP. However, for Chinese visitors, GDP is most influential. The second finding of this study is that, more negative media exposure directed at Korea in Japan, results in the number of Japanese tourists decreasing two and three months later. This effect disappears after the span of four months, and was shown most remarkably for Japanese people in their fifties. This result should help explain the phenomenon of the decreasing ratio of fifty-year-olds to the total Japanese visitors over time. Third, the recent penetration of Korean entertainment, celebrities, and dramas into the Chinese entertainment market is a significant factor that brings more Chinese tourists to Korea.
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