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전용석(Jeon Yong-Seok),박복례(Park Bok-Rae),박찬식(Park Chan-Sik) 대한건축학회 2002 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.18 No.12
Under the current competitive business environment in the construction indusUy, the probability of the contractor's bankruptcy has been growing higher. The firm's management requires a quantitative predicting tool that could measure the degree of insolvency and survival time. This study proposes a survival predicting model for contractors, utilizing the survival analysis that is a statistical tool developed for the estimation of the patient's survival time in medicine. The survival analysis methodology is regraded as an alternative to overcome the shortcomings of the binary predicting model using regression analysis for the predicting the contractor's bankruptcy. The usefulness of the proposed model was validated through the comparison with the logistic regression model. The predicting performance of the each model shows that the logistic model appears to perlorm well in the firm's bankruptcy and the survival model does well in the firm's soundness.
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