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토픽모델링으로 본 북한 3대 지도자의 정당성 주장 분석
류경아 ( Kyunga Ryu ) 연세대학교 통일연구원 2022 통일연구 Vol.26 No.2
It is unusual for North Korea, a closed personalist dictatorship, to preserve power and regime through hereditary succession. North Korea has survived in the midst of the global democratization movements and the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe. It endured a substantial economic and human security threat posed by the Great Famine in the mid-1990s and is withstanding economic sanctions imposed by the international community. The narrative of three North Korean rulers (Kim’s Family) is beyond conveying personal thoughts; it has been serving as the tool for legitimacy claim to legitimize the governing power and the regime. This study utilizes LDA Topic-modeling on 2,062 speeches, orations, statements, and letters addressed by the three rulers of North Korea from 1930 to early 2019 to provide time series analysis on how the seven sources of North Korean regime legitimacy have changed over the period and further contributed to the regime survival. I categorize the seven sources of legitimacy claim that North Korean rulers have been relying on, namely, (1) National Foundation Medal, (2) ruling ideology, (3) nationalism, (4) personalism, (5) performance, (6) international engagement, and (7) formal institution. As the regime went through hereditary succession, fewer sources of legitimacy claim became available for the successor. Therefore the reliance on the founding father Kim Il-sung became stronger through hereditary succession.
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북한체제변화 연구방법론에 대한 비판적 고찰과 대안의 모색
류경아 ( Kyunga Ryu ),김용호 ( Yong Ho Kim ) 북한연구학회 2012 북한연구학회보 Vol.16 No.1
Two recent monumental changes in Asia, the North Korean hereditary succession and the Arab Spring, reinvigorate discussions on regime change in North Korea. However, previous studies on the North Korean regime change tend to be limited to general assessments of North Korea`s intrinsic political system or comparative analyses to other socialist states, such as the Soviet Union, China and Vietnam. Some of them lacks academic value, since their discussions are dominated by ideological competition between liberals and conservatives, Thus, this paper aims to provide a wholistic review on the political change in North Korea through a comprehensive study on previous works pertaining to regime change in regions, including South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East following the advent of the Jasmine Revolution. It introduces a framework of institutions and interaction among four actors - political leaders, elites, the people, and neighboring countries-as well as the prospects for the possibility of a North Korean regime change, To solidify the foundations of Kim Jong-un`s reign, North Korea has revised formal institutions and glorified the Kim family and their accomplishments. In the process, division among the elites has been obstructed by the removal of political rivals and potential threats. Any voluntary uprising by the people is highly unlikely under the North Korean authority`s control and repression. China, its most influential neighbor, has blocked support to anti-government groups and rival powers in order to maintain its friendly relationship with the Kim Jong-un regime. Moreover, another important actor, the United States, will not intervene in North Korean internal affairs unless North Korea changes its attitude. Therefore, this paper concludes that possibility of a North Korean regime change in the near future is low.
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