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남재현 ( Jaihyun Nahm ),박기영(논평),이규복(논평) 한국금융연구원 2021 한국경제의 분석 Vol.27 No.1
The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of savings banks that are operating in line with the original purpose of the savings banking industry, such as local finance and low-income finance. To this end, it is divided into regional finance, regional savings banks, and low-income finances, and examines their characteristics. In the case of corporate loans, factors influencing the proportion of loans to SMEs of individual savings banks and loans to individual business owners are analyzed using a random effects panel model. In the case of household loans, factors influencing the medium-yield loans of individual savings banks are estimated using the censored Tobit model. Finally in the case of regional finance, local HHI related to regional financing is introduced and factors affecting it is analyzed using the censored Tobit model. Also, based on the results of the analysis, it provides a series of implications for the savings bank's M&A policies, regulation of capital soundness, and government policies on business districts and ownership structures.
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이경원 ( Kyoungwon Rhee ),김현철(논평),남재현(논평) 한국금융연구원 2021 한국경제의 분석 Vol.27 No.3
This paper discusses by topic the competition policy issues related to online platforms having a huge impact on the world. First, through a simple theoretical model analysis, we seek to understand the pricing for each monopoly market and duopoly market of the platform adopting the two-sided business model. And then, the paper focuses on the discussion based on the recent academic studies on topics such as the possibility of maintaining the dominance of the existing giant online platform or the possibility of entering a new platform, the effect of exclusive contracts, the possibility of foreclosure by vertical integration, the issue of killer acquisition, and anti-competition by data.
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여은정 ( Sung-in Jun ),이순호 ( Soonho Lee ),전성인 ( Eunjung Yeo ),남재현(논평),박창균(논평) 한국금융연구원 2020 한국경제의 분석 Vol.26 No.2
Recently, the Korean government has been pursuing a policy to revitalize medium-interested loans, estimating that current personal consumer loans are smaller than loan demands of financial consumers with moderate credit ratings. This is because the breakdown of interest rate structure occurs. In other words, high-credit scored consumers have low borrowing interest rates of less than 4% and mid/low-credit scored consumers have a high borrowing interest rate of more than 20%. Despite these policy efforts by the government, the breakdown of the interest rate structure has remained almost the same until recently. The purpose of this study is to contribute academically and policy-wise to the field of research of personal consumer loans by conducting various empirical analyzes based on the characteristics of medium-rated creditors and non-public data sample-driven from the whole personal consumer loans. In particular, we perform clustering analysis through sampling based on the entire data of personal consumer loans, and then, first of all, identify characteristics of middle-credit scored borrowers and other borrowers. This study grasps the current status of the medium-credited consumer loan market and presents relevant policy implications by conducting cluster analysis and logit analysis based on actual personal consumer loan sample data. First, the cluster analysis shows that four clusters are classified according to factors such as income, size of the total loan amount, and age. Next, as a result of examining the relationship between the interest rate and default rate by credit ratings, it was found that medium-credited consumers are getting loans with higher interest rates than actual their estimated default rates. The logit regression analysis showed that the loan interest rate, the credit rating (or credit score), and the default rate were positive (or negative). Specifically, it was confirmed that regardless of the credit ratings of borrowers, total debt to income ratio (DTI), card loan dummy, and loan balance variables are major factors affecting the default rates. In addition, considering the existence of non-linear relationships, the results of the analysis including the squared term of the credit indicators (credit scores and credit ratings) and the dummy variable for the medium-rated creditors were found to be similar as mentioned previously. In particular, it can be interpreted that the medium-rated creditors lower the default rate significantly because of the negative relationship between the medium-rated creditor dummy and the default rate. Finally, as a result of estimating the expected profits of financial institutions per lending unit by credit ratings, it is difficult to exclude the possibility that financial institutions are getting relatively excessive profits from the medium-rated creditors compared to other groups of borrowers. These results suggest that it is necessary to increase the medium-rated consumer loan size to an appropriate level rather than the present through accurately assessing the default rate for medium-rated consumers by developing a more accurate credit rating model for them.
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임형준 ( Hyungjoon Ray Lim ),구정한 ( Jung-han Koo ),이규복 ( Kyoobok Lee ),남재현(논평),우석진(논평) 한국금융연구원 2021 한국경제의 분석 Vol.27 No.3
This paper estimates the effect of the exemption of joint liability in SME loan guarantee on its default rate. We take advantage of a regression discontinuity design of the policy assignment rule, which had public SME financing institutions exempt joint liability in their loan guarantees to the SME’s of younger than five years old. We construct the sample based on the guarantee data of Korea Technology Finance Corporation spanning from January 2016 to June 2017 and follow the default of guarantee for the next 36 months. The estimation shows that joint liability exemption does not significantly change the default rates and the result stands even after controlling Altman (1968) financial ratios and KTFC’s evaluation ratings. Taking into the fact that account private lending institutions still apply joint liability to SME loans, possibly confounding our identification, we estimate the model for a subsample which consists of firms that unlikely have private lending concurrently. It does not find significant effect of liability exemption, either. These findings are robust to various robustness checks.
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