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상대계수법을 이용한 설 연휴에 대한 단기 전력수요예측 알고리즘
권보성(Bo-Sung Kwon),문찬호(Chan-Ho Moon),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2022 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.36 No.6
An algorithm to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting(STLF) for the Lunar New Year’s Holidays is proposed. The proposed algorithm can integrate the impact of temperature and behind-the-meter(BTM) solar PV generation on the load for the Lunar New Year’s Holidays. The hourly loads for the Lunar New Year’s Holidays are forecasted using the relative coefficient method. The sensitivity of load to temperature is calculated, and the corrected loads using the calculated sensitivity are used to load forecast. In addition, the impact of BTM solar PV generation is integrated into the load forecast for the Lunar New Year’s Holidays using the reconstituted load method. Test results of load forecasts for the Lunar New Year’s Holidays from 2016 to 2020 have shown that the accuracy of load forecasting improves when the impacts of temperature and BTM solar PV generation are systematically considered in load forecasting.
기온민감도 및 BTM의 추정을 반영한 특수일의 전력수요예측 알고리즘
권보성(Bo-Sung Kwon),배동진(Dong-Jin Bae),문찬호(Chan-Ho Moon),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2021 전기학회논문지 Vol.70 No.2
The load on the special days are relatively lower compared to load on normal days, the pattern of load is irregular, and the number of load data for the past similar days to the special day is limited. Since the load forecast error on special days is relatively large compared to the load forecast error on normal days, the improvement of load forecasting algorithm for special days is needed. An hourly load forecast algorithm for special days that can reflect the effect of temperature varying over time and the effect of BTM(Behind-the-Meter) solar photovoltaic(PV) generators increasing by year is developed to improve the load forecasting accuracy for special days. The proposed algorithm forecasts hourly load for special days using fuzzy linear regression, and then corrects the forecast load using both the temperature sensitivity and the estimated BTM solar PV generation. The forecast accuracy is improved when using the proposed algorithm to forecast the load on special days in 2019.
다양한 정규화 방법에 따른 평일 단기 전력수요예측 정확도 분석
권보성(Bo-Sung Kwon),박래준(Rae-Jun Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2018 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.32 No.6
The short-term load forecasting is necessary for stable and smooth power system operation. The accuracy of short-term load forecasting for weekdays according to various normalization methods is analyzed. The normalization methods to be analyzed are maximum and minimum normalization, maximum normalization, and Z-Score normalization. And the model used for 24-hours load pattern prediction is the exponential smoothing technique. In order to return the normalized 24-hour load value to the load value, the predicted maximum load, minimum load, average load and standard deviation of load are estimated using exponential smoothing. In the recent three-year case studies, the accuracy of the short-term load forecasting applying maximum normalization, maximum and minimum normalization and Z-Score to the exponential smoothing technique is analyzed based on the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE). The test results show that the maximum and minimum normalization method is better than the others.
SMP와 REC 가격 변동 시나리오에 따른 사업자 관점에서 태양광 발전 사업의 경제성 평가 및 민감도 분석
문찬호(Chan-Ho Moon),권보성(Bo-Sung Kwon),우수화(Su-Hwa Woo),배동진(Dong-Jin Bae),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2020 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.34 No.10
South Korea is seeking to promote the supply of renewable energy through its 3020 renewable energy policy. Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard(RPS) is a system that grants electricity suppliers with a mandatory supply of renewable energy in order to promote the supply of renewable energy, and supply of renewable energy is certificated by issuing Renewable Energy Certificate(REC). The solar PV generation business is long-term business and owners make profits such as System Marginal Price(SMP) and REC through solar PV generation. It is necessary to consider the fluctuation of SMP and the price of REC in order to determine the feasibility of solar PV generation business from the perspective of the owners. Therefore, the economic evaluation of solar PV generation business from the perspective of the owners is conducted applying price fluctuation scenarios of SMP and the price of REC. Through the economic evaluation of solar PV generation business, the owners decides whether to implement the business and the policy maker can decide the appropriate policy direction.