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러시아의 대(對)한반도정책과 함의: 지정학적 안보 환경과 수단
강정일 ( Kang Jungill ) 한국국가전략연구원 2021 한국국가전략 Vol.6 No.1
본 논문은 ‘러시아가 한반도에 가졌던 근원적 인식과 정책적 방향은 무엇이었으며, 어떠한 동인에 의해 러시아의 정책이 변화하였는가’를 중심으로 러시아의 對한반도정책을 분석한다. 이를 위해 한반도와 처음으로 관계를 형성하였던 제정 러시아 시기로 회귀하여, 지정학적 시각으로 제정 러시아의 對한반도정책을 살펴보고, 정책변화의 동인을 지정학적 안보환경과 수단으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 현재의 러시아가 19세기와 같이 한반도에 대해 지정학적 팽창정책을 적용하기 위해서는 유럽을 포함한 대외 안보 환경의 안정화, 한반도에 대한 중국의 영향력 감소, 남·북한의 親러시아 정책 등 지정학적 안보 환경이 조성되고, 지정학적 수단인 철도와 부동항을 포함한 교통수단과 에너지 인프라구축 등이 구비되어야만 가능할 것이다. 러시아의 對한반도정책은 지정학적 안보 환경과 수단이 구비된 이후에야 현재의 관망정책에서 벗어나 팽창정책으로 전환될 수 있을 것이다. This paper analyses Russia's policy on the Korean Peninsula centering on ‘the fundamental perception and policy direction Russia had on the Korean Peninsula, and the variables and motives that changed their policies.’ To this end, to referring back to the times of the Imperial Russia, which first established relations with the Korean Peninsula, and examined the application process of foreign policy mainly on the Korean Peninsula pursued by the Imperial Russia, by dividing into wait-and-see policy and an expansionary policy. Based on this, Russia’s political variables and motives that may have effect on the Korean Peninsula were separately derived into external environment and means. Russia applied an expansionary policy to the Korean Peninsula for territorial control, while the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Ice-free Harbor were used as means of military projection for influence or control over the area but failed with an implementation of expansionary policy with incomplete means. Current Russia is keeping a quiet but dreadful eye on the Korean Peninsula, while emphasizing its role as a ‘Balancer’ of the Peninsula’s security issue. But if the external security environment, including that of Europe stabilizes, and when conditions for the current geopolitical means such as energy infrastructure and transportation improve, while the neighbouring countries on the Korean Peninsula including China become weak in security, Russia will then abandon its current wait-and-see policy and shift to an expansionary policy.
강정일(Jungil Kang) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2012 한국군사학논집 Vol.68 No.1
Historically, Russia's attitude has been double-faced toward Europe. This Russia's attitude has an effect on military relations toward NATO. Russia has not admitted NATO but Russia has tried to find out cooperation with NATO. Russia has maintained current interest of military relations toward NATO. From now on, Russia will maintain double-faced attitude toward NATO for Russia's interest. In this research, we will prospect the future relations between Russia and NATO by finding out how Russia and NATO make their military relations after Soviet's collapse and the main factor of the Russia's changing positions.