海外直接投資理論의 理論的 課題와 體系

盧宅煥 嶺南大學校社會科學硏究所 1987 社會科學硏究 Vol.7 No.1

大邱貿易의 歷史的 推移變化와 發展課題(Ⅰ)

盧宅煥 嶺南大學校附設 社會科學硏究所 1994 社會科學硏究 Vol.14 No.1

UR에 의한 우리나라 纖維産業의 影響과 對應課題(Ⅱ)

盧宅煥 嶺南大學校附設 社會科學硏究所 1993 社會科學硏究 Vol.13 No.2

세계화(世界化)와 국민국가(國民國家)에 대한 전통적(傳統的) 논쟁(論爭) -세계화와 국민국가의 정치경제론(1)-

로택환 ( Taek Hwan Ro ),이명호 ( Myung Ho Lee ) 영남대학교 산경연구소 2006 産經硏究 Vol.14 No.-

세계화(世界化)와 국민국가(國民國家)의 역할(役割) 전환(轉換) -세계화와 국민국가의 정치경제론(2)-

로택환 ( Taek Hwan Ro ) 영남대학교 산경연구소 2006 産經硏究 Vol.14 No.-

國際環境規制에 따른 貿易障壁擡頭와 韓國의 對應方案

金鎭三,盧宅煥,申鉉種 嶺南大學校附設 社會科學硏究所 1994 社會科學硏究 Vol.14 No.1

換率流動化의 效果測定에 관한 硏究 : The Korean Experiences of Floating Exchange Rate Since 1980

金峻憲,裵然秀,崔東湖,盧宅煥,盧德律,曺賢正,李仁鎬 嶺南大學校社會科學硏究所 1982 社會科學硏究 Vol.2 No.1

Since the final collapse of official parities in the spring of 1973, exchange rates of the major industrial countries have fluctuated widely. The recurring turbulent experiences with floating rates, particularly since mid-1977, resulted in a growing disenchantment and discontent with the functioning of this system. Trade imbalances continued to persists for quite sometime despite massive changes in the exchange rates and the analysis of exchange rate in the short run has raised some serious question in regard to many of forward in advocating the floating system. These questions can be grouped under 'instability', 'overshooting' and 'vicious circle' etc. Exchange rate changes under the system of generalized floating among major currencies affected negatively on cost of foreign trade, and on export performance for some selected developing countries. Under these circumstances, Korea have changed its exchange rate policy to floating system since February 1980. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the influnce of exchange rate changes on the balance of payments, inflation, price level, capital flows, and industrial structure in the recent period. We aim not only investigate the effects of exchange rate changes, but try to enhance our understanding of exchange rate theory and contribute to the search for better policy decisions for handling exchange rates. The main conclusions of our study can be summarized as follows. 1. Floating Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments. First, we have examined both aspects of relative export profitability as well as their influnce on exports, under the present system of generalized currency floating systen among developed countries since 1973 to 1979. Our major findings indicate that the relative price effect due to major currency realignments has generally been smaller than that of the observed real exchange rate adjustments. Based on manufactured trade weights, we find negative trend in NPXM (the effect of exchange rate changes on export prices) and the real exchange rate has apparently deteriorated PPPEERx (purchasing-power-parity adjusted effective exchange rate) during the period. Since the beginning of the floating regime in February 1980, there has been a continuing depreciation in doller rate of the Korean won currency. But balance of payment imbalances continued despite massive changes in the exchange rates. Obviously, the period is far too short to allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, but the deterioration in the balance of payments and instability of the exchange rates suggest that the export promotion efforts should give some attention to the proper coordination of exchange rate management with domestic policies affecting the general price level. 2. Floating Exchange Rate, Domestic Inflation and Price Level. It is widely accepted that the existence of a positive relationship between the depreciation of the currency and the acceleration of domestic inflation. Obviously, changes in exchange rates can be expected to push inflation. The implication of this view is that competitive forces will quickly eliminate changes in relative price stemming from exchange rate changes by offsetting changes in domestic prices. According to our estimation, the 10 percent effective devaluation of the 'Won' between 1974: I and 1978: IV would rise by 7.16 percent as measured by their adjusted wholesale price index, or 9.29 percent as measured by consumer price index. Our estimation also suggest that, on average, 10 percent devaluation would improve the export price advantage of Korea by 9.06 percent, so one can easily find domestic price change will ultimately offset the price advantage for exports. Certainly, the exchange rate situation of the past two years is a for cry from the system of freely flexible rates so beloved of textbook writers. Exchange rate rising under the system of current floating amounted to 36.3 percent in 1980, and 6.2 percent in 1981, their contribution to whole sale price index was 17.1 percent over the period. Because of its large effects on the exchange rate, we may suggest that monetary policy will become an extremely useful instrument to stablize the domestic price level or the rate of inflation. 3. Floating Exchange Rate and Capital Flows. The floating rate system is often attacked because it is feared that the exchange rate uncertainties inherent in this system would stifle the normal flow of capital. Despite substantial fluctuations in exchange rates, the widely feared decline in trade balance and investment has failed to materialize. Under the present system of floating, the exchange rate risk has increased, and increases in exchange rate risks faced by foreign investors have obviously reduced the desire of investment. Throughout most of the period under discussion short-term capital inflow and bank's Euro-dollar borrowing was increased, while direct investment in Korea by foreigner was decreased. The flow of capital under the recent period, however, has been considerably affected by various government measures and controls, and one should not overlook the fact that the direction, forms and patterns of capital were greatly affected by various measures of exchange controls. 4. Floating Exchange Rate and Industrial Organization Whenever an exchange rate changes, it alters the structure of prices faced by producers and consumers in all countries and induces to alter, in turn, the pattern of production, consumption and further the industrial organization. Korean experience with floating exchange rate is still quite short, and to investigate the implications of exchange rate is still quite short, and to investigate the implications of exchange rate changes for levels of output in each industry and industrial organization needs accurate data. Unfortunately, these data are not available, so, we develope, a model which can estimate the resource reallocation costs of fixed and flexible exchange rates, and the sensitivity of industrial output and employment to exchange rate changes. Empirical study shows that reallocation costs of a flexible exchange rate are not necessarily greater than those under a fixed exchange rates. These results suggest that even during periods of considerable exchange rate variability, unnecessary resource reallocation costs may not be a significant disadvantage of a flexible exchange rate system But the sensitivity of industrial output to an exchange rate can be substantial. The variations in response thus make it difficult to offset possible dislocations caused by exchange rate changes. If all industries of a country were affected identically, then it might be feasible to use macroeconomic policies to anticipate exchange rate movements. But, in fact, it is likely to be difficult to find a policy that would affect each industry by just the right amount.