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China in 2005: Implications for the Rest of the World
( Channing Arndt ),( Thomas Hertel ),( Betina Dimaranan ),( Karen Huff ),( Robert Mcdougall ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.4
This paper analyzes the impact of continued rapid growth in china on her trading partners using a multiregion, applied general equilibrium model. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that most developing countries benefit from china`s growth. Product differentiation plays a key role in this finding. systematic analysis of these welfare gains shows that, as expected, simple terms of trade calculations based on net trade positions and average world price changes predict a loss for the developing countries. However, with the exceptions of South Asia and Thailand, this loss is overshadowed by a positive movement in region-specific export price indices. Second-best effects also play a significant role in the gains for a number of the developing countries. (JEL Classification: Fl1, F15)
China in 2005 : Implications for the Rest of the World
Arndt, Channing,Hertel, Thomas,Dimaranan, Betina,Huff, Karen,McDougall, Robert 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1999 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.4
This paper analyzes the impact of continued rapid growth in China on her trading partners using a multiregion, applied general equilibrium model. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that most developing countries benefit from China's growth. Product differentiation plays a key role in this finding. Systematic analysis of these welfare gains shows that, as expected, simple terms of trade calculations based on net trade positions and average world price changes predict a loss for the developing countries. However, with the exceptions of South Asia and Thailand, this loss is overshadowed by a positive movement in region-specific export price indices. Second-best effects also play a significant role in the gains for a number of the developing countries. (JEL Classification: F11, F15)
Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model
( Jing Liu ),( Channing Arndt ),( Thomas W. Hertel ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2004 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.19 No.3
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used for quantitative analysis of global economic issues. However, CGE models are frequently criticized for resting on weak empirical foundations. This paper builds on recent work in macro-econometric estimation, developing an approach to parameter estimation for a widely employed global CGE model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. An approximate likelihood function is developed and the set of optimum elasticity values is obtained by maximizing this approximate likelihood function in the context of a back casting exercise. In addition, two statistical tests are performed. The first of these tests compares the standard GTAP elasticity vector with the estimated trade elasticity vector. It rejects the null hypothesis of equality between the two sets of trade elasticities. The second test examines the widely maintained hypothesis known as the “rule of two”, by which the elasticity of substitution across imports by sources is set equal to twice the elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and imports. We fail to reject this common rule of thumb. We conclude that there is much to be gained by nesting CGE models within an estimation framework as this opens the way for formal evaluation of model performance and parameterization.