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- 저자 : ( Basant K. Kapur ) (검색결과 3 건)
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THE J - CURVE AND SHORT - RUN EXCHANGE - RATE DYNAMICS
KAPUR, BASANT K. 한국국제경제학회 1989 International Economic Journal Vol.3 No.3
Levin (1983) has argued that the J-curve's conjunction with imperfect asset substitutability and rational expetations necessarily results in overshooting of the exchange rate in response to a real disturbance. We argue here that Levin has excluded three important considerations from his analysis: (ⅰ) the response of income and the interest rate to trade balance variations.(ⅱ) the effect of exchange rate changes on the domestic price level, and (ⅲ) the 'valuation effect' of exchange rate changes on domestic holdings of the foreign asset. We demonstrate that consideration (ⅰ) cannot, and considerations (ⅱ) and (ⅲ) can, produce exchange rate undershooting, and we also explore the effect of various parameter configurations on the overall trajectory of the exchange rate.
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Open-Economy Response to a Terms of Trade Shock in a Growth Context
Kapur, Basant K. 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1986 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.1 No.1
The issue of how open economies do and should respond to adverse movements in their terms of trade is one that has received considerable attention in the past decade. Recently, however, a new dimension has been added to the discussion by authors such as Maurice Obstfeld (1980,1982), Jeffrey Sachs (1983), and Lars E O Svensson and Assaf Razin (1983), who have argued that the issue should be studied in the framework of an intertemporal optimizing model. Using an Uzawa-type (1968) utility function, for example, Obstfeld (1982) obtains the unusual result that an economy that is specialized in the production of its export good, and that is initially in stationary equilibrium, will respond to a sudden, unanticipated, and permanent terms-of-trade deterioration by initially reducing its consumption level and generating a current-account surplus. The logic behind this result is, as Obstfeld points out, 'easy to grasp'. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by the attainment of a utility level such that the associated rate of time preference equals the exogenous rate of interest on bonds. At this equilibrium, the economy's savings are zero. A terms-of-trade shock impairs the ability of the economy to maintain this utility level, and it must consequently accumulate additional assets through saving in order to raise its income to the level that permits the restoration of the original utility level. While Obstfled (and Sachs) have adopted an infinite-horizon framework, other authors have examined the issue in the context of two-period models (or, in the case of Marion and Svensson (1984a), a three-period model, one of which is a past period). They point out that other outcomes are possible. A current-account deficit could result initially if the intertemporal utility function were not additively separable(Marion-Svensson, svensson-Razin), if wages were sticky (Marion-Svensson), if a nontraded good were incorporated into the model (Marion(1984)), if the technology were of the putty-clay variety (van Wijnbergen (1984b)), or if the oil-importing nation or bloc were large in the world oil market (Marion-Svensson (1984b), as well as Sachs). Other, related works include those of Bruno and Sachs(1979, 1985), and, in a monetary context, Buiter 1978). This paper seeks to examine another possible rationale for the frequently-observed phenomenon of countries initially running current-account deficits in response to unanticipated and permanent deteriorations in their terms of trade. Intuitively, one might hypothesize that an economy that is experiencing continued growth over time might wish to run a current-account deficit immediately subsequent to being subjected to a terms-of-trade shock, for the purpose of achieving a 'smoother: time-profile of consumption than would otherwise prevail - even if the utility function were additively separable. This is particularly likely to be the case if the future growth prospects of the economy are at least partially 'dissociated' from its current savings performance -on account, for example, of autonomous growth in factor productivity. Accordingly, we construct here a simple model that will enable us to investigate this possibility. Many ingredients of the basic modal, as presented in Section I, are familiar from the optimal growth literature, and it becomes correspondingly easier to relate our analysis to that standard literature. In Section II, we depart somewhat from the basic model, for the purpose of obtaining a consumption profile that appears to be even more consistent with the observed behaviour of various real-world economies. Concluding observations are provided in section III.
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