人口變化에 따른 都市成長要因 分析에 關한 硏究 = (A) Study on Analysis of City Growth Factor by Population Variation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Recently, cities are to be a new limelight in developing countries. Because, They have performed important roles in promoting and spreading economic and social development of the country.
This study is concerned with all cities in Korea, and has three main purposes. First one is to select the general analysis variables affecting urban growth from existing theoretical literatures. Second one is to identify the dominant factors and their changes for the growth of cities in Korea through the analysis of correlation with growth rate. It could be done by case study of growth trends of all existing cities for analysis period. The last one is to find out a formula to estimate the future growth of cities in Korea. The results of this study could offer much suggestions to establish the development strategies of cities in Korea.
The analysis period in case study is 1991 to 2000. It corresponded with the middle of the First National Comprehensive Physical Development Plan(1991~1995) based on the Comprehensive National Land Construction Planning Law in 1963, and the middle of the Second National Comprehensive Physical Development Plan(1996~2000).
The basic method for this study is comparative analysis, and two statistical methods are used. The factors effecting population growth of cities in Korea are found by the discriminant analysis, and the forecasting formula of population growth is developed through the multiple linear regression analysis. The analysis results are summarized as follow :
1. Inevitably, the classification standards of the small and medium sized level in an urban hierarchy may vary among countries, depending on their pattern of urban settlement, level of development, and economic structure, population density, etc. But, the most convenient and frequently used criterion for identifying cities is relative population size, because the city size is proportional to the funtional complexity.
2. As Om Prakash Mathur pointed out, the importance of cities in developing countries results from the argument of efficiency, the equity consideration, and the failure of trickle-down mechanism. In comprehensive viewpoint based on exciting studies for roles and functions of cities, the general goals of development of cities could be summarized as stimulating of economic growth, improvement of living conditions, establishment of new spatial orders in urban system, and development to more mature society based on diversity.
3. The identified urban growth factors that would be used for the ananysis of growth mechanism of cities in Korea are:
4. As the result, in cities in Korea four variables, 'GAC', 'SAC', 'SEL', and 'COM'-are selected as the general factors concerned with urban population growth.
One is the absolute formula which shows the annual average population growth rate. Another is the relative formula which is concerned with correction term for the difference between the growth rate of given city and the average growth rate of the whole cities. The outputs are satisfactory in comparison with the actual past growth rates of cities in the Korea.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차 = ⅰ
• 表目次 = ⅳ
• 圖目次 = ⅷ
• ABSTRACT = ⅹ
• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 1.1 연구 배경 및 목적 = 1
• 1.2 연구 범위 및 방법 = 4
• 1.3 연구 수행 내용과 흐름 = 5
• 제2장 도시성장요인 분석 이론 고찰 = 7
• 2.1 도시성장 및 내ㆍ외적 성장요인 = 7
• 2.1.1 도시성장의 개념 = 7
• 2.1.2 도시성장에 영향을 미치는 요인 = 12
• 2.2 도시유형과 인구추계 모형 = 21
• 2.2.1 군집화를 위한 도시유형 분류 = 24
• 2.2.2 정량적 방법에 의한 도시 유형화 = 26
• 2.2.3 다변량 분석에 의한 도시 유형화 = 31
• 2.2.4 인구지표 추계방법 = 36
• 2.3 분석을 위한 변수와 지표 선정 = 41
• 2.3.1 인구적 측면의 선정 변수 = 41
• 2.3.2 사회적 측면의 선정 변수 = 43
• 2.3.3 토지이용 측면의 선정 변수 = 46
• 2.3.4 경제 측면의 선정 변수 = 47
• 2.3.5 재정적 측면의 선정 변수 = 49
• 제3장 도시성장요인의 현황 분석 = 52
• 3.1 우리나라 도시의 인구 특성 = 52
• 3.1.1 인구도시화와 종주도시화 = 52
• 3.1.2 계층별ㆍ권역별 인구 특성 = 63
• 3.2 인구증감률에 의한 도시유형 분류 = 65
• 3.3 성장요인 변수를 이용한 판별분석 = 67
• 3.3.1 판별분석의 의의와 목적 = 67
• 3.3.2 판별분석과 통계적 유의도 = 69
• 3.4 시차별 주요 성장요인 비교 = 73
• 3.5 도시의 성장유형별 지표변화 추이 = 77
• 3.5.1 인구 관련 요인 = 77
• 3.5.2 사회 관련 요인 = 80
• 3.5.3 토지이용 관련 요인 = 83
• 3.5.4 경제 관련 요인 = 85
• 3.5.5 재정 관련 요인 = 88
• 제4장 도시성장계수 및 성장모형 정립 = 90
• 4.1 도시의 주요 성장요인 분석 = 90
• 4.1.1 도시의 성장 메카니즘 = 90
• 4.1.2 지표의 시계열 증감에 의한 성장요인 = 94
• 4.2 회귀분석에 의한 성장계수 도출 = 106
• 4.2.1 절대적 측면의 성장계수 = 106
• 4.2.2 상대적 측면의 성장계수 = 113
• 4.3 성장요인 검증을 위한 모형정립 = 120
• 4.3.1 사례도시의 인구모형 정립 = 121
• 4.3.2 도시유형별 인구모형의 정립 = 131
• 제5장 결론 = 138
• 참고문헌 = 140
• 부록 = 144