북핵문제 해결을 위한 미·중의 역할과 한국의 군사적 대응전략 연구 = A Study on the Resolution of the North Korea’s Nuclear Proliferation Focusing on the Role of the U.S and China and Military Counterstrategy of R.O.K.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

ABSTRACT
A Study on the Resolution of the North Korea’s Nuclear Proliferation Focusing on the Role of the U.S and China and Military Counterstrategy of R.O.K.

Park, Jae Wan
Advisor : Prof. Oh, Soo-Yol, Ph. D.
Department of Political Science and Diplomacy
The Graduate School of Chosun University

In this situation, the North Korean nuclear threat has been realized through analysis of the role the United States and China to resolve the nuclear issue of the Korea military strategies. The UN resolution was the strongest sanctions the UN sanctions in 2270 with a unanimous call for the non-military part since its inception 4th North Korean nuclear test and long-range missile test. Thus the international community has also seriously recognize the North Korean nuclear issue, and multilateral efforts for the denuclearization of North Korea.
This study sought it as the military strategies of Korea to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue was a problem starting the following ritual. First, what is the reality of North Korea's nuclear threat, North Korea what it wants, ultimately? Second, what is the relevance theory in international politics to solve the North Korean nuclear issue? Third, what is the North Korean nuclear policy and its neighbors, and how address and look to see how this problem? Fourthly, ultimately, strategies for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue is what is, what is the military strategies of Korea?
In analyzing North Korea's nuclear strategy and the threat has been strengthening the nuclear pursuant to suppress nucleation theory, the ultimate goal for North Korea to pursue a submarine-launched ballistic missile capable of exerting a deterrent to survive in punitive retaliation. It is expected to aim to attach the hydrogen-bomb.
The theoretical background with relevance for the North Korean nuclear issue is expected that new realism theory, in particular, aggressive and realistic relevance. This theory was based on the consideration that the reasons for North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons, through the review of the nuclear deterrence theory was utilized for countermeasures proposed framework of criteria for the overall North Korean nuclear issue.
Neighbors to the North Korean nuclear issue, particularly analyzes on US and China policy in Northeast Asia and the nuclear strategy. The core of the United States in Northeast Asia policy toward North Korea policy of denuclearization of North Korea to make a pierced, nuclear-free world of rebalancing policy pivot to Asia containment of China through the pursuit of a hegemon status retention strategies by to be investigated. The US is expected that also relate to strategies and policies against China in Asia and through policies focused emerged as the world's hegemon further beyond the Northeast G2 strategy and patience of the North Korean nuclear issue.
What with the Chinese in East policy being made in the keynote for strategic for moving on to a responsible hegemon on the basis of enhanced economic and strategic analysis of China's nuclear policy and that the role was discussed. And China is speaking in a foreign policy offensive for the "China dream". And how to treat an existing clan was North Korea, in particular analysis about whether to pursue any policy and strategy in the North Korean nuclear issue. Analysis China is pursuing a policy want to remove the access security issues and economic issues, the North Korean nuclear issue was considered a burden because of China that is a sign of changes in existing policies and strategies.
It is the denuclearization of North Korea, the North's denuclearization is the goal to be achieved even through regime change and replace the regime, and even peaceful reunification of Korea oriented. And military strategies must adhere to the three principles do not accept North Korea, it should take countermeasures such as preemptive strikes to punish revenge, decapitation operations. And South Korea should build kill chain and KAMD early, will have to be determined by the interests of the peninsula layout THAAD. And the opinion of the Korea nuclear, tactical nuclear weapons USFK relocation, etc. were analyzed for tactical nuclear conditional temporary relocation. Temporary relocation is also contingent tactical nuclear aspects pertinent and judgment, but also should not be overlooked that there is a crisis on the Korean peninsula can be heightened.
In conclusion, the intent and direction of the North Korean nuclear threat in order to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea, and led by a thorough analysis of the policies and strategies of neighboring South Korea proposed a direction to go forth. Dialogue is important, but changing the calculation method of the North must achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through pressure and sanctions, using the military countermeasures.

Key words : the North's nuclear issue, denuclearization, neo-realism, nuclear deterrence theory, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hydrogen bomb, military strategies, active deterrence strategy.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목 차
• 표 목차 iv
• 그림 목차 v
• 감사의 글 vi
• ABSTRACT vii
• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 방법 및 범위 3
• 1. 연구의 방법 3
• 2. 연구의 범위 4
• 제3절 선행연구 검토 7
• 제2장 이론적 배경과 분석의 틀 13
• 제1절 신현실주의이론 13
• 제2절 핵억제이론 19
• 제3절 핵확산 낙관론과 비관론 24
• 제4절 분석의 틀 32
• 제3장 북한의 군사전략과 핵위협 분석 35
• 제1절 북한의 군사전략과 핵억제론 35
• 1. 북한의 군사전략 35
• 2. 북한의 핵억제론 45
• 제2절 북한의 핵위협 50
• 1. 핵무기의 실체 50
• 2. 북한의 핵개발 전략 60
• 3. 북한의 핵능력 평가 73
• 4. 북한의 핵무기 사용 가능성 분석 77
• 제3절 소결론 80
• 제4장 미․중의 대외정책과 북핵전략 82
• 제1절 동북아시아 안보질서 개관 82
• 1. 세계 안보정세와 동북아 안보질서 현황 82
• 2. 동북아시아의 주변국 이해관계 83
• 제2절 미국의 대외정책과 북핵전략 90
• 1. 미국의 대외정책 90
• 2. 미국의 북핵전략 92
• 제3절 중국의 대외정책과 북핵전략 101
• 1. 중국의 대외정책 101
• 2. 중국의 북핵전략 104
• 제4절 북핵 관련 미․중의 관계와 역할 112
• 1. 북핵 관련 미․중의 관계 112
• 2. 북핵 관련 미․중의 역할 114
• 제5절 소결론 134
• 제5장 북핵문제 해결을 위한 군사적 대응전략 136
• 제1절 한국의 대북정책과 북핵전략 136
• 1. 한국의 대북정책 136
• 2. 한국의 북핵전략 144
• 제2절 한국의 군사적 대응전략 152
• 1. 북핵 불용 3원칙 엄수 152
• 2. 적극적 공세 억제전략 시행 154
• 3. 핵옵션의 선택논의 고찰 170
• 제3절 소결론 177
• 제6장 결 론 179
• 【참고문헌】 183