軍事革新을 위한 國防改革 2020 推進의 影響要因 分析 = An Analysis of Influencing Factor Military Reform 2020 Promoting for Revolution Military Affairs

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

These days according as the paradigm of civilization changes industrial society into informational society, the way and means are changed into information and knowledge in a massive way. accordingly The U.S.A showed up as the super-nation together with the demolition of the old USSR, won the Gulp War completely made itself most powerful over the world. furthermore, The U.S.A accepted informational and technological revolution positively and cultivated warfield visualization and informational sharing, the new war paradigm which saw forward in 20-30 years in order to maximize synergy effects with the complexation of correct hitting ability, so-called, 21th military renovation.
In 2001, the U.S.A suffered from 9.11 terrorist attack and was involved in Afghanistan War and Iraqi War after declaring 'The War against Terrorism' in order to revenge and get rid of anti-civilizational terrorism. multinational army in the regular operation of the two wars won the wars overwhelmingly and showed off more conspicuous results of the war than the Gulf and Kosovo War. therefore, global super-power military countries benchmarked and acquired the ability accomplishing the war in the future, developed multi-level operational concept, expressed the competing aspects much investing in the development of the high-tech weaponry and equipment needed in the composition of patrol and attack complex system.
But, this US driven 21th century military Renovation failed very miserably in Afghanistan and Iraqi stability and national reconstructional operation. The USA in two wars spent 110 billion dollars for 7 years for average annually, sacrificed 4,000 soldiers, and has no hope in these wars. After the Gulf War, The US 'Rumsfeld Doctrine, 'Smart' War Theory as the basic concept which has been propelled for the last 15 years by the high-tech informational technological military power, is being challenged.
The USA dispatched the large army hurriedly, the armed level changed the light armed into the heavy armed, the operational shape of ground forces was changed into four shapes in addition to 'stable operation' and supporting operation in traditional attack operation and defence operation as the same standard, recently inadaptability was raised as the key theory of military transformation, Effect Based Operation.
Recently, the US change of military renovation is prospected having much affect on developing countries. we have no exception. Our army made 'Military Reformation 2020' published on september in 2005 considering our battlefield circumstances and conditions, but that is why we accepted American military renovation concept. In especial, North Korea is good at non-regular military operation and excellent with political and psychological War powerfully. Considering the fast change of North Korea and the possibility to develop the situation which needs 'Stability Operation', the difficulties which today the USA suffers from Iraq and Afghanistan and the movement seeking for new escape gate demand the review of our 'Military Reformation 2020'.
In addition, 'The law about National Defence Reformation' which was passed in late 2006 by National parliament included the blue print to change our army from the quantitative structure of the military based power into the qualitative structure based on information and technology. North Korea's threat increasingly reduced in the long run, and supposing in the future surrounding unspecific and uncertain potential threat increasing relatively, considering the possibility for our national power to enter advanced stage about 2020, we have a grand plan to create elite forces, scientification, and modernizational army which can prepare South-North coexistence, disarmament controling period, strategic environments after unification as well as existing threat preparation.
If we look into the reduction of ground forces, 'Military 2020' basic plan published in September in 2005 decreased the army number from a standing forces 681,000 to 500,000 by the year 2020 and will announce the military renovation centered on the contents to reduce the army numbers from reserve forces about 3,000,000 to 1,500,000. the number of reduced forces will become 181,000 in standing forces, and in special, these will be reduced in the majority of the Army. that is, the power of the landing army will be reduced from 548,000 177,000, will be 371,000, marines 4,000 out of 68,000 in the naval forces, will remain 64,000 in total, and the Air forces will not be reduced from 65,000.
This study tried to analyze substance after the analysis of advance research about Military Renovation 2020 and the extraction of effectual factors. As a result of the analysis of advance research, the common effectual factors in the propel of 'Military Renovation 2020' include the change of War paradigm, the Reconstruction of Korean and American Allied relation, North Korean Threat, the reduction of ground forces. the rest of minimal opinions showed up reforming will of leaders and military chief leaders, the concentration of political agenda, the consideration of sympathy and professionalism, the acquisition of required budget.
Based on the result of beforementioned preceding research, commonly the change of war paradigm analyzed with having the effects on 'Military Reform 2020', the reconstruction of Korean-American allied relation, the threat of North Korea, and the reduction of the number of Ground forces chose with independent variables. when the accomplished result of "Military Reform 2020', that is, Military Reform 2020 is accomplished successfully, we chose as dependent variables controling ability being equipped with defence ability about the war by North and surrounding countries, when attacked by North Korea, defence and attacking ability, when attacked by surrounding countries.
As a result of substantial analysis, independent variables emerges affecting the completion of 'Military Reform 2020', in other words, though the development toward information and technology-intensive Army according to the change of war paradigm operates the result completion of 'Military Reform 2020', the reconstruction of the resulting Korean-American Ally and threat increase of North Korea, the reduction of Ground forces appears to be disadvantageous.
In especial, if ground forces are reduced like 'Military Reform 2020', severe problems happens in our national security, and it doesn't control the war for the communization of Korean Peninsular and so, results in the state of not defending or attacking against the aggression of North Korean and surrounding countries as well as not maintaining the state of peace under the system of free democracy like today. In the direction of preparing direction, reducing ground forces in the state of maintaining ground forces as the present level, developing information and technology-intensive army shows that our security attitude stabilizes in stage of the entrance and will be favorable for complete guarantee.
Finally, in order to carry out 'Military Reform 2020' successfully, leaders have great concern and military chief leaders have strong will, we need to make up for the system to propel this positively. though national security is a very important business leading to national success or failure, the system of Military Reform Committee just belonging to Military Defence Minister has difficulty in attaining the purpose. Thus, it should belong to the immediate unit of the President or should be managed by over Prime Minister who are controlling the Security Minister, if not so, considering Korean emotion, we should understand that business performance is not easy. now, Russian Putin was appointed from president to Prime Minister and have been performing Military Reform. In addition, we should watch attentively that the top dictator Kim Jung-il in North Korea experiencing the attack of South Korea threatening our nation very much has the position of the Chairman of Military Defence Committee.
If we tell the war in peace period, most people don't like to listen, though we may hear like the old tales, unless we prepare for the war, we should not forget that the war come up without previous warning in the days of the unbalance of power. we should deeply consider whether though economically we boast of much richer than North Korea we are hoping that our security will be strong in the bad state that we use Military defence expenditures less than North Korea in the comparison of economic power or averting our eyes on small sacrifice for national security we live in a substantial inconsistency in the comfortable life in this nation.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 제1절 연구의 목적 = 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위와 방법 = 7
• 1. 연구의 범위 = 7
• 2. 연구의 방법 = 8
• 제2장 군사혁신에 관한 이론적 배경 및 선행연구 = 10
• 제1절 군사혁신의 개념 및 특성 = 10
• 1. 군사혁신의 개념 및 의의 = 10
• 2. 군사혁신의 유형과 특성 = 14
• 제2절 한국의 군사혁신 = 26
• 1. 한국의 군사혁신 추진배경 = 26
• 2. 한국의 군사혁신 기본개념 = 30
• 제3절 군사혁신의 선행연구와 평가 = 32
• 1. 선행연구의 내용과 특징 = 32
• 2. 선행연구에 대한 평가 = 51
• 제3장 국방개혁 2020의 추진 현황 = 53
• 제1절 국방개혁 2020의 추진개요 = 53
• 1. 국방개혁 2020의 추진경과 = 53
• 2. 국방개혁 2020의 추진방향 = 54
• 제2절 국방개혁 2020의 주요내용 = 57
• 1. 정보.지식중심의 기술 집약형 군 구조 발전 = 57
• 2. 미래전 수행을 위한 전력구조 발전 = 65
• 3. 효율성 제고를 위한 국방운영체제 발전 = 74
• 제3절 국방개혁 2020 추진상의 문제점 = 82
• 제4장 분석의 틀 및 조사 설계 = 88
• 제1절 분석의 틀 = 88
• 1. 연구 분석의 방향 = 88
• 2. 가설의 설정 = 100
• 제2절 측정 및 조사 설계 = 103
• 1. 연구대상 선정 = 103
• 2. 측정지표 및 측정방법 = 104
• 3. 자료 분석 방법 = 108
• 제3절 표본의 특성과 설문의 신뢰성 검증 = 109
• 1. 연구대상의 기본적 특성분석 = 109
• 2. 설문지의 타당성 및 신뢰도 검정 = 111
• 제5장 분석결과 및 논의 = 116
• 제1절 국방개혁 2020 추진의 전반에 대한 분석 = 116
• 1. 국방개혁 2020에 대한 인식 수준 = 116
• 2. 국방개혁 2020 ‘05기본계획의 적절성 = 118
• 3. 국방개혁 2020 추진에 우선시 되어야할 사업 = 118
• 4. 국방개혁 2020 계획수립 시 각 군의 의견 반영 = 120
• 5. 국방개혁 2020 ‘09수정계획의 적절성 = 122
• 제2절 국방개혁 2020 추진의 독립변수에 대한 의견분석 = 131
• 1. 전쟁패러다임 변화에 따른 군사혁신에 대한 인식 = 131
• 2. 한.미 동맹관계의 재편에 대한 인식 = 136
• 3. 북한의 위협 증가에 대한 인식 = 141
• 4. 병력 감축에 대한 인식 = 150
• 5. 국방개혁 독립변수에 대한 인식 = 160
• 제3절 국방개혁 2020 추진의 가설 검증 = 163
• 1. 개혁당사자의 국방개혁 추진의 모형 추정 = 164
• 2. 개혁대상자의 국방개혁 추진의 모형 추정 = 172
• 제4절 분석의 종합 = 178
• 1. 국방개혁 추진 독립변수에 대한 인식 차이 = 178
• 2. 국방개혁 추진의 모형 추정 = 181
• 제6장 결론 및 정책함의 = 183
• 참고문헌 = 192
• 〈부 록1〉인식 차이 분석결과 = 203
• 〈부 록2〉설 문 지 = 204
• ABSTRACT = 210