신상품 수요예측을 위한 bass모형 확장에 관한 연구 = (A)survey on bass expansion model to forecast demand

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The survey was designed to seek forecasting theories and its process of application to the market, and to estimate the forecasting in case a new product launched to the market.
The Bass model, mostly utilized by nowadays, have been reflected with innovator and imitator.
That will be a defect to consider factors in demand only. In order to compensate it, this survey would like to propose "Bass expansion model", concerned with technology innovation and business rationalization, and to investigate a parameter estimator method.
To estimate the availability of Bass expansion model, the survey forecast registers of mobile phone service and sales of LCD cellular phone.
This survey show the evidence that the growth curve is dependant to learning influence of business organizations. At the result of this survey, It could be confirmed that the growth pattern is up to business rationalization.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 1. 서론 = 1
• 1.1. 연구의 의의 = 1
• 2.1. 연구의 목적 및 방법 = 4
• 2.1.1. 연구의 목적 = 4
• 2.1.2. 연구의 방법 = 7
• 2. 신상품 수요확산모형 = 10
• 2.1. 확산모형의 개요 = 10
• 2.2. 단일 신상품 확산모형 = 15
• 2.3. 다세대 확산모형( Multigeneration Diffusion Models) = 21
• 2.4. 경쟁 확산모형(Competitive Diffusion Models) = 23
• 3. Bass확장모형의 제시 = 26
• 3.1. 기업의 학습효과모형 = 26
• 3.2. Bass모형의 확장 = 29
• 3.2. Bass확장모형의 추정 = 39
• 4. 실증분석 = 44
• 4.1. 국내 이동전화 가입자 수 예측 = 44
• 4.2. LCD 수요예측 = 52
• 4.3. 이동전화 가입자 수와 LCD판매량의 학습효과 비교 = 56
• 5. 결론 및 시사점 = 58
• 참고문헌 = 60
• ABSTRACT = 65