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        Predictive Modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 Survival in Fermented Soy Beverage

        Zielińska Dorota,Kołożyn-Krajewska Danuta,Goryl Antoni,Ilona Motyl 한국미생물학회 2014 The journal of microbiology Vol.52 No.2

        The aim of the study was to construct and verify predictivegrowth and survival models of a potentially probiotic bacteriain fermented soy beverage. The research material includednatural soy beverage (Polgrunt, Poland) and the strainof lactic acid bacteria (LAB) – Lactobacillus casei KN291. To construct predictive models for the growth and survivalof L. casei KN291 bacteria in the fermented soy beveragewe design an experiment which allowed the collection ofCFU data. Fermented soy beverage samples were stored atvarious temperature conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20°C) for 28days. On the basis of obtained data concerning the survivalof L. casei KN291 bacteria in soy beverage at different temperatureand time conditions, two non-linear models (r2=0.68–0.93) and two surface models (r2=0.76–0.79) were constructed;these models described the behaviour of the bacteriain the product to a satisfactory extent. Verification of the surfacemodels was carried out utilizing the validation data - at7°C during 28 days. It was found that applied models werewell fitted and charged with small systematic errors, whichis evidenced by accuracy factor - Af, bias factor - Bf and meansquared error - MSE. The constructed microbiological growthand survival models of L. casei KN291 in fermented soybeverage enable the estimation of products shelf life period,which in this case is defined by the requirement for the levelof the bacteria to be above 106 CFU/cm3. The constructedmodels may be useful as a tool for the manufacture of probioticfoods to estimate of their shelf life period.

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