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- 저자 : Ziaul Haque Munim (검색결과 2 건)
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Ziaul Haque Munim 한국해운물류학회 2020 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.36 No.4
Researchers and practitioners are benchmarking technical efficiency of ports and exploring the drivers of high efficiency. Paradoxically, this study argues that high technical efficiency (TE = 1) is not always essential, but an optimal level needs to be achieved while balancing the port service level. This study applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and free disposal hull (FDH) methods to perform efficiency rankings of 38 container terminals from 17 different ports in 12 Asian countries. Four terminals are technically efficient (TE = 1) in all frontier approaches, thereof one Bangladeshi, one Chinese, one Indian and one Vietnamese. Furthermore, this study presents a case study combining qualitative and quantitative data analysis to investigate the characteristics of a port hosting high technically efficient container terminals The finding suggests that ports with growing throughput, not investing actively in infrastructure and equipment, become high technically efficient over time, but the higher their technical efficiency, the lower their service level
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Munim Ziaul Haque,Fiskin Cemile Solak,Nepal Bikram,Chowdhury Mohammed Mojahid Hossain 한국해운물류학회 2023 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.39 No.2
Forecasting container throughput is critical for improved port planning, operations, and investment strategies. Reliability of forecasting methods need to be ensured before utilizing their outcomes in decision making. This study compares forecasting performances of various time series methods, namely autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing (HWES), and the Prophet model. Since forecast combinations can improve performance, simple and weighted combinations of ARIMA, SARIMA and HWES have been explored, too. Monthly container throughput data of port of Shanghai, Busan, and Nagoya are used. The Prophet model outperforms others in the in-sample forecasting, while combined models outperform others in the out-sample forecasting. Due to the observed differences between the in-sample and out-sample forecast accuracy measures, this study proposes a forecast performance metric consistency check approach for informed real-world applications of forecasting models in port management decision-making.
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