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        Dynamic Response of Dependency Ratio on Government Expenditures in Indonesia

        Teuku ZULKARNAIN,Yusri HAZMI,Muhammad NASIR,Faisal FAISAL,Dasmi HUSIN 한국유통과학회 2022 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.9 No.2

        The aim of this study is to see how government spending on education, health, and social security affects ratios in Indonesia. The third sector has a critical role to play in reducing the dependency ratio. It also aims to lower unemployment and poverty rates. This study uses the GMM panel data model. This model can determine the dynamic response of the ratio that comes from a number of variables. This study uses data from 33 provinces from 2010 to 2018. The results show that government spending in the education and health sectors has a positive effect on the dependency ratio, both in the short and long term. Social security has a significant effect on the dependency ratio in the long term, but not in the short term. Government spending in the education sector and health sector and social security sector have a positive and significant effect on disease and illness. The study’s findings show a high level of poverty with a large standard deviation. The high ratio value is due to the large number of restrictions placed on a number of regions. Each province has made a significant contribution to overcoming these challenges, particularly in terms of the comparative ratio.

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        The Application of Optimal Control Through Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Economy

        SYAHRINI, Intan,MASBAR, Raja,ALIASUDDIN, Aliasuddin,MUNZIR, Said,HAZMI, Yusri Korea Distribution Science Association 2021 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.8 No.3

        The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

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