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- 저자 : Twumasi, George Blay (검색결과 2 건)
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Impact of Climate Change on Corn Production in Dangbe East District of Ghana
( George Blay Twumasi ),( Ahmad Mirza Junaid ),( Li Ting ),( Taehwa Lee ),( Yongchul Shin ),( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2016 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2016 No.-
The study was carried out to examine the impact of climate change on corn production in the Dangbe East District of Ghana. Analysis of long-term (1992-2013) trends of rainfall during the growing season (i.e. March and July) in the study area showed that about 70% of the seasons were below the long-term average, with an all-time low occurring in the year 2004. Although the wettest years (1997 and 2009) had relatively higher percentages above the long-term average (169% and 163%) compared to the lower percentages (40% and 57%) of the driest years (2004 and 1992), the latter were relatively lesser in numbers (i.e. 30%). Mean seasonal temperatures however, did not show high variation from the long-term mean implying that rainfall was the main cause of yield variation in the area. Therefore, two climate scenarios were assumed: Scenario A involved reduced rainfall and elevated temperature, while scenario B involved elevated rainfall and reduced temperature. Aquacrop model (Ver. 4) was evaluated using 22 years of observed corn yield and it produced reasonable estimates of grain yield. The model was then used to predict corn yield under 20% depletion of rainfall and 7°C temperature rise (Scenario A) and 20% rise in rainfall and 7°C depletion (Scenario B). Under scenario A, the predicted corn yield ranged between 0.215-1.391 ton/ha which represents a drop of 83% while yield ranged from 1.611 to 2.595 ton/ha representing a yield increase of 61% under Scenario B. Adaptation measures are given as management recommendations in line with the climatic changed scenarios.
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죠지 블레이 투마시,아흐메드 미르자 주네이드,신용철,최경숙,Twumasi, George Blay,Junaid, Ahmad Mirza,Shin, Yongchul,Choi, Kyung Sook The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 2017 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.59 No.1
Climate change phenomenon is posing a serious threat to sustainable corn production in Ghana. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the rain-fed corn yield in the Dangme East district, Ghana by using Aquacrop model with a daily weather data set of 22-year from 1992 to 2013. Analysis of the weather data showed that the area is facing a warming trend as the numbers of years hotter and drier than the normal seemed to be increasing. Aquacrop model was assessed using the limited observed data to verify model's sufficiency, and showed credible results of $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). In order to simulate the corn yield response to climate variability four climate change scenarios were designed by varying long-term average temperature in the range of ${\pm}1^{\circ}C{\sim}{\pm}3^{\circ}C$ and average annual rainfall to ${\pm}5%{\sim}{\pm}30%$, respectively. Generally, the corn yield was negatively correlated to temperature rise and rainfall reduction. Rainfall variations showed more prominent impacts on the corn yield than that of temperature variations. The reduction in average rainfall would instantly limit the crop growth rate and the corn yield irrespective of the temperature variations.
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