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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Saldiva, Paulo Hila (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
Lee, Jae Young,Kim, Ho,Gasparrini, Antonio,Armstrong, Ben,Bell, Michelle L.,Sera, Francesco,Lavigne, Eric,Abrutzky, Rosana,Tong, Shilu,Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio,Saldiva, Paulo Hila Elsevier 2019 Environment international Vol.131 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO<SUB>2</SUB> concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Future health burden with respect to CO<SUB>2</SUB> increase was projected in 28 countries. </LI> <LI> Future temperature and mortality were compared across locations. </LI> <LI> Daily temperature range determines the rate of temperature increase. </LI> <LI> Amount of health expenditure determines the vulnerability to temperature change. </LI> </UL> </P>
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Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study
Lee, Whanhee,Bell, Michelle L.,Gasparrini, Antonio,Armstrong, Ben G.,Sera, Francesco,Hwang, Sunghee,Lavigne, Eric,Zanobetti, Antonella,Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio,Saldiva, Paulo Hila Elsevier 2018 Environment international Vol.110 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> We analyzed the health burden of diurnal temperature range (DTR) for 10 countries. </LI> <LI> In addition, we estimated the temporal changes in the mortality burden of DTR. </LI> <LI> The excessive risk and attributable risk of DTR was significant in most countries. </LI> <LI> The mortality burden due to DTR has been increased during decades (1972–2013). </LI> <LI> We conclude that the effect of DTR will not decrease in the near future. </LI> </UL> </P>
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