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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Hanafiah Harvey 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2017 Global economic review Vol.46 No.2
Research on the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance is now moving in a new direction, by investigating whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects. The approach that relies upon separating depreciations from appreciations introduces nonlinearity into the adjustment process and relies upon the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. [2014. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework, in: R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281–314 (Springer)]. When we applied this new method to the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with each of her 11 largest partners, we found adjustment asymmetry in all models, short-run impact asymmetry effects and long-run asymmetry effects in the trade balance models between Malaysia and Asian countries.
US-Malaysia Trade at Commodity Level and the Role of the Real Exchange Rate
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE,Hanafiah Harvey 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2012 Global economic review Vol.41 No.1
Previous studies that were concerned with the impact of depreciation of the ringgit on the Malaysian trade balance employed data either between Malaysia and rest of the world or between Malaysia and each of her major trading partners. Specifically, the bilateral trade balance between Malaysia and the US is shown to be insensitive to the real bilateral ringgit dollar rate. In this article we wonder if disaggregating trade flows between Malaysia and the US by commodity could help us to discover any significant effects that the real exchange rate could have. We consider 101 industries that export from US to Malaysia and 17 industries that import from Malaysia. While majority of the industries showed short-run sensitivity to the real bilateral exchange rate, short-run effects lasted into the long run almost in half of the industries in both group.
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Orhan Kara 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2008 Journal of Economic Development Vol.33 No.1
In 1950 Orcutt conjectured that a country’s trade flows could respond to a change in exchange rate quicker than they do to a change in relative prices. Previous research that supported Orcutt’s hypothesis employed non-stationary data rendering the results to suffer from spurious regression problem. When we account for stationarity of the data by using cointegration and error-correction modeling, no strong evidence is found in support of the Orcutt’s hypothesis. The findings in this paper for developing countries are similar to those found for developed countries.
The S-Curve Dynamics of US-Hong Kong Commodity Trade
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE,JIA XU 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2010 Global economic review Vol.39 No.2
It has been proved theoretically that correlation coefficients between future values of the trade balance and current exchange rate is positive where as those correlation coefficients between past values of the trade balance and the current exchange rate is negative, hence the S-Curve pattern. In this paper we tested the empirical validity of the curve using annual data from the period 1978 2006 of 104 industries that trade between the US and Hong Kong. We found evidence of the S-Curve in 34 industries. Included among the 34 industries one could see small and large industries as well as durable and non-durable ones.
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE,JEHANZEB CHEEMA 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2009 Journal of Economic Development Vol.34 No.1
Previous studies that investigated the short-run (J-curve) and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of Pakistan used aggregate trade data between Pakistan and the rest of the world and provided no evidence of any significant impact. We wonder whether lack of the relation is due to aggregation bias. In this paper, therefore, we go one step further by employing disaggregated data at bilateral level between Pakistan and her 13 major trading partners to determine if we can discover partners whose trade balances react to changes in the real bilateral exchange rate. The results from bounds testing approach are still inconclusive and show that only in half of the cases the real bilateral exchange rate plays a role.
Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen,Mohammadian Amirhossein 한국국제경제학회 2021 International Economic Journal Vol.35 No.2
Previous studies have assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on consumption and investment in G7 countries. In this study, we assess its impact on domestic output in the same countries. Furthermore, we argue that its impact could be asymmetric, implying that increased uncertainty affects domestic output at a different rate than decreased uncertainty. Unlike consumption and investment, we find the unanimous outcome in all G7 countries that increased uncertainty hurts domestic output and decreased uncertainty boosts it, though significant long-run asymmetric evidence was found only in the cases of Canada, Japan, and the U.S. Thus, any policy aimed at reducing uncertainty will be growth-enhancing.
Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Majid Maki Nayeri 한국국제경제학회 2018 International Economic Journal Vol.32 No.2
Previous studies included money supply volatility as well as output volatility as measures of uncertainty in estimating the demand for money. However, a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty is now constructed for many countries and is known as policy uncertainty. When we included this new measure in the formulation of the demand for money in Korea and relied upon a nonlinear specification of the money demand which allows us to assess the asymmetric effects of changes in the policy uncertainty measure, we found asymmetric long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for cash in Korea. Our conjecture is that increased uncertainty induces Koreans to hold less cash in favor of safer assets and decreased uncertainty has opposite effects, though at different rate.
How Stable is the Demand for Money in China?
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee,Yongqing Wnag 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2007 Journal of Economic Development Vol.32 No.1
Different authors have tried to estimate the demand for money in different countries. A common theme of almost all studies since 1987 is the application of cointegration technique. The demand for money in China is no exception and has received some attention by researchers. However, finding of cointegration has been interpreted as a sign of constancy of parameter estimates. In this paper we employ CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests in conjunction with cointegration analysis to show that both M1 and M2 are cointegrated with their determinants. The results of stability tests reveal that while M1 money demand in China is stable, there is some doubt about stability of M2 money demand.