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Democratic Consolidation in Timor-Leste: Achievements, Problems and Prospects
Damien Kingsbury 서울대학교행정대학원 2014 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.22 No.2
Timor-Leste has had three rounds of major elections, all of which have been widely regarded as meeting international criteria for being free and fair. There has also been one change of government on the basis of these elections. On these grounds, some observers have suggested that Timor-Leste has met the benchmark for having consolidated its democracy. Timor-Leste can be said to meet the criteria for an expanded minimalist definition of democracy, holding regular, free and fair elections within an open competitive political environment, with relatively little violence and intimidation and general freedom of expression. This political process has, as defined by the literature, also consolidated. However, Timor-Leste continues to face future economic challenges. The literature indicates that states with high levels of poverty, unemployment and with food shortages are more prone to political instability. Given that Timor-Leste's political party system relies heavily on charismatic individuals and, apart from Fretilin, has poor party structures, loss of current political leaders will add a further destabilising effect. Expected economic problems are likely to manifest around the same time that the current generation of political leaders are no longer active. The question will be, in this increasingly challenging environment, whether Timor-Leste can sustain its democracy.
Matiello, M.,Kim, H. J.,Kim, W.,Brum, D. G.,Barreira, A. A.,Kingsbury, D. J.,Plant, G. T.,Adoni, T.,Weinshenker, B. G. Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer) - American Acad 2010 Clinical Neurophysiology Vol.75 No.4
<P>BACKGROUND: Detection of aquaporin-4-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) has expanded the spectrum of neuromyelitis optica (NMO). Rare reports of familial aggregation have suggested a component of genetic susceptibility but these reports mostly antedated the discovery of the NMO-IgG biomarker and recently updated diagnostic criteria. METHODS: We report a case series describing the demographic, clinical, neuroimaging, and NMO-IgG serologic status of 12 multiplex NMO pedigrees with a total of 25 affected individuals. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients (84%) were women. Families were Asian (n = 5), Latino (n = 4), white (n = 1), or African (n = 2). Apparent transmission was either maternal (n = 5) or paternal (n = 2). In 1 family, 3 individuals had NMO; in the others, 2 individuals were affected. Sibling pairs (n = 6), parent-child (n = 4), and aunt-niece (n = 3) pairs were observed. Nineteen patients (76%) were NMO-IgG positive. Twelve (48%) had clinical or serologic evidence of another autoimmune disease. Familial occurrence of NMO occurs in approximately 3% of patients with well-established diagnosis of NMO. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of patients with NMO have relatives with this condition, but familial occurrence is more common than would be expected from its frequency in the general population. Familial NMO is indistinguishable from sporadic NMO based on clinical symptoms, age at onset, sex distribution, and frequency of NMO-IgG detection. One or 2 generations were affected and affected individuals represented a small fraction of family members. Taken together, these data suggest complex genetic susceptibility in NMO.</P>