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Local Challenges in Global Korea : Rebalancing with Leverage
Meral Karasulu 한국경제연구학회 2010 Korea and the World Economy Vol.11 No.3
This paper analyzes the implications of global rebalancing in the post-crisis period for Korea and how high leverage in the household and SME sectors could affect this process. Consumption and investment in Korea appear in line with that of peers, but there are limits how much they could be sustained in the post crisis world to pick up the slack from a lower external demand. To avoid the build-up of vulnerabilities from high leverage, households have to increase their saving rate limiting consumption growth. On the other hand, exportoriented and large corporates may need to invest less with lower export demand increasing corporate savings further. This would leave SMEs in the non-tradable sector as the engines for investment, employment and household income growth, increasing the urgency to address their long-standing structural problems and weak balance sheets. Delaying the necessary adjustment would increase costs and financial vulnerabilities. Improving social safety nets and the pensions system would be important to manage the adjustment costs while increasing labor market flexibility.
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