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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Kana Austin (검색결과 4 건)
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Exploring market uncertainty in early ship design
Zwaginga Jesper,Stroo Ko,Kana Austin 대한조선학회 2021 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.13 No.1
To decrease Europe's harmful emissions, the European Union aims to substantially increase its offshore wind energy capacity. To further develop offshore wind energy, investment in ever-larger construction vessels is necessary. However, this market is characterised by seemingly unpredictable growth of market demand, turbine capacity and distance from shore. Currently it is difficult to deal with such market uncertainty within the ship design process. This research aims to develop a method that is able to deal with market uncertainty in early ship design by increasing knowledge when design freedom is still high. The method uses uncertainty modelling prior to the requirement definition stage by performing global research into the market, and during the concept design stage by iteratively co-evolving the vessel design and business case in parallel. The method consists of three parts; simulating an expected market from data, modelling multiple vessel designs, and an uncertainty model that evaluates the performance of the vessels in the market. The case study into offshore wind foundation installation vessels showed that the method can provide valuable insight into the effect of ship parameters like main dimensions, crane size and ship speed on the performance in an uncertain market. These results were used to create a value robust design, which is capable of handling uncertainty without changes to the vessel. The developed method thus provides a way to deal with market uncertainty in the early ship design process.
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Odendaal Kirsten,Alkemade Aaron,Kana Austin A. 대한조선학회 2023 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.15 No.-
The adverse human contribution to global climate change has forced the yachting industry to acknowledge the need to reduce its environmental impact due to the client's increasing pressure and potential future regulations to limit the ecological effects. Unfortunately, current real-world data presents a significant disparity between predicted and actual gathered energy consumption results. Thus, this research aims to develop an approach to accurately predict total dynamic Energy Consumption (EC) using real operation voyage data for the improved early-stage design of future yachts. A Grey-Box Modelling (GBM) solution combines: physics-based White-Box Models (WBM); and Black-Box Model (BBM) artificial neural networks to provide estimations with high accuracy and improved extrapolation capacity. The study utilizes ten months of onboard continuous monitoring data, hindcasted weather, and voyage information from a Feadship fleet yacht. Upon applying a sequential modelling methodology, predictions are compared between the three model categories, indicating propulsion and auxiliary estimates fall within 3% and 7% error of operational conditions. The study is then continued using external range datasets to evaluate the extrapolation potential. While GBM improvements are seen over the BBM, limitations were directly related to the strength between dynamic WBM input-output correlations. Ultimately, GBM's have the potential to improve both accuracy and extrapolation ability over existing WBM and BBM's; however, much is dependent on the strength of the input-output relationships.
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le Poole Joan,Duchateau Etienne,Hopman Hans,Kana Austin A. 대한조선학회 2023 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.15 No.-
Design: rationale is a promising way of capturing design decisions and considerations for later retrieval and traceability to improve collaborative design decision-making. To achieve these perceived benefits for early-stage complex ship design, this paper first elaborates on the development of a proof-of-concept design rationale method. The method aims to aid ship designers in the continuous capturing and reuse of design rationale during the collaborative concept design process. Second, the setup and results of an experiment conducted with marine design students and with experts are discussed. This experiment shows how the developed design rationale method benefits collaborative design decision-making such that it leads to improved insight into design issues across the design team during a single design session.
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Parameter space exploration for the probabilistic damage stability method for dry cargo ships
Milatz Bas,de Winter Roy,van de Ridder Jelle D.J.,van Engeland Martijn,Mauro Francesco,Kana Austin A. 대한조선학회 2023 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.15 No.-
The prediction of the statutory attained subdivision index is a challenging issue for the initial design of ships due to the design freedom offered by a probabilistic damage stability assessment. To this end, optimisation techniques integrated with a parametric model of the internal layout may generate a preliminary subdivision design, fulfilling damage stability regulations and cargo volume requirements. The present study explores using a multiobjective constrained optimisation algorithm coupled with a parametric model of a single hold cargo vessel, first investigating two design goal alternatives and secondly performing a global sensitivity analysis on the design variables for the most promising solution. The adoption, in parallel, of state-of-the-art practices shows the validity of the obtained solutions and the time benefits for designers. Nonetheless, the non-linear nature of probabilistic damage stability does not allow for clearly identifying the most impactful parameters on the attained survivability index.
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