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Choi-Meng LEONG,Chin-Hong PUAH,Maggie May-Jean TANG 한국유통과학회 2021 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.8 No.7
This study aims to examine whether symmetric effects or asymmetric effects of exchange rates exist in determining the money demand in Indonesia. Simple-sum money and Divisia money were included in different models for comparison due to the financial developments in Indonesia. This study uses time-series data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 for the estimation. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is utilized to verify the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were performed to verify the order of integration of the variables. The findings of this study revealed that the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of money demand in Indonesia and the effect is asymmetric. The findings further indicated that money demand function, which incorporates Divisia monetary aggregate is parsimonious. Monetary targets such as money supply and interest rates are critical for monetary policy conduct to achieve inflation levels set by government. As the adoption of an inflation targeting framework needs to be in keeping with the flexible exchange rate system, the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes can be used in exchange rate policy conduct to achieve financial system and price stability.
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Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions
VENUS KHIM-SEN LIEW,AHMAD ZUBAIDI BAHARUMSHAH,CHIN-HONG PUAH 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2009 Global economic review Vol.38 No.4
This paper examines the long-run relationship between exchange rate and its determinants based on the flexible-price monetary model. The multivariate cointegration approach is adopted to attain our objective of this study. The empirical results provide evidence favoring the monetary approach to exchange rate for a small and open emerging economy, namely Thailand. In addition, the validity of the underlying assumptions of the monetary approach to the determination of exchange rate is established. The findings suggest that exchange rate players may effectively monitor and forecast the exchange rate movement via the money supplies, incomes, and interest rates variables of both Thailand and Japan. Besides, one has to follow the economic development of Thailand’s major trading partner, Japan, to understanding the movement of exchange rate for Thailand. Moreover, our findings add new insights to accompany previous studies that documented the important influence of the US in the emerging Asian economies.
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