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Zagarjav Tsegmed,Shukherdorj Baasanmunkh,Khurelpurev Oyundelger,Batlai Oyuntsetseg,Uudus Bayarsaikhan,Andrey Erst 국립중앙과학관 2023 Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity Vol.16 No.3
Fritillaria dagana Turcz. has a restricted global distribution, occurring only in southern Siberia andnorthern Mongolia. Concerning its restricted distribution and endangered conservation status, we aimedto forecast its current and future suitable habitats as well as distribution shifts for 2050 and 2080. TheMaxent model with different scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representativeconcentration pathway 8.5) was used to analyze 113 georeferenced records of F. dagana using 19bioclimatic factors from the WorldClim database. As a result, the amount and variance of precipitationand temperature, together with elevation, were shown to be the most significant factors affecting thespecies’ distribution. In particular, precipitation during the plant growing season had the greatest impact(55.2% variability) on the species distribution. Climate change was expected to cause a minor shift in thedistribution of suitable habitats toward the north and an increase in habitat continuity, indicating thatthe climate will become more favorable for the growth of species and in the future. The species’ highlysuitable area will remain primarily concentrated in its current potential distribution area in centralSiberia (around Lake Baikal). The species’ conservation status was determined to be near threatened,emphasizing the great relevance of facilitating proper conservation measures for F. dagana.
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