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Dean Price,Andrew Maile,Joshua Peterson-Droogh,Derreck Blight 한국원자력학회 2022 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.54 No.3
Large-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimateimportant reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitablyresult in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric uncertaintyquantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on the Advanced Test Reactor Critical (ATRC)facility housed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and addresses some complications due to Monte Carlouncertainty when performing these analyses. This approach for UQ/SA includes consideration of MonteCarlo code uncertainty in computed sensitivities, consideration of uncertainty from directly measuredparameters and a comparison of results obtained from brute-force Monte Carlo UQ versus UQ obtainedfrom a surrogate model. These methodologies are applied to the uncertainty and sensitivity of keff for twosets of uncertain parameters involving fuel plate geometry and fuel plate composition. Results indicate that the less computationally-expensive method for uncertainty quantification involvinga linear surrogate model provides accurate estimations for keff uncertainty and the Monte Carlo uncertaintyin calculated keff values can have a large effect on computed linear model parameters for parameterswith low influence on keff.
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