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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Ali Mosleh (검색결과 4 건)
- 무료
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- 유료
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A Perspective on Strengths, Current Limitations, and Possible Improvements
Ali Mosleh 한국원자력학회 2014 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.46 No.1
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used in various technological fields to assist regulatory agencies, managerialdecision makers, and systems designers in assessing and mitigating the risks inherent in these complex arrangements. HasPRA delivered on its promise? How do we gage PRA performance? Are our expectations about value of PRA realistic? Arethere disparities between what we get and what we think we are getting form PRA and its various derivatives? Do currentPRAs reflect the knowledge gained from actual events? How do we address potential gaps? These are some of the questionsthat have been raised over the years since the inception of the field more than forty years ago. This paper offers a briefassessment of PRA as a technical discipline in theory and practice, its key strengths and weaknesses, and suggestions on waysto address real and perceived shortcomings.
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PRA: A PERSPECTIVE ON STRENGTHS, CURRENT LIMITATIONS, AND POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS
Mosleh, Ali Korean Nuclear Society 2014 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.46 No.1
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used in various technological fields to assist regulatory agencies, managerial decision makers, and systems designers in assessing and mitigating the risks inherent in these complex arrangements. Has PRA delivered on its promise? How do we gage PRA performance? Are our expectations about value of PRA realistic? Are there disparities between what we get and what we think we are getting form PRA and its various derivatives? Do current PRAs reflect the knowledge gained from actual events? How do we address potential gaps? These are some of the questions that have been raised over the years since the inception of the field more than forty years ago. This paper offers a brief assessment of PRA as a technical discipline in theory and practice, its key strengths and weaknesses, and suggestions on ways to address real and perceived shortcomings.
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Nelson, Pamela F.,Martin-Del-Campo, Cecilia,Hallbert, Bruce,Mosleh, Ali Korean Nuclear Society 2016 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.48 No.1
The development of operational performance indicators is of utmost importance for nuclear power plants, since they measure, track, and trend plant operation. Leading indicators are ideal for reducing the likelihood of consequential events. This paper describes the operational data analysis of the information contained in the Corrective Action Program. The methodology considers human error and organizational factors because of their large contribution to consequential events. The results include a tool developed from the data to be used for the identification, prediction, and reduction of the likelihood of significant consequential events. This tool is based on the resilience curve that was built from the plant's operational data. The stress is described by the number of unresolved condition reports. The strain is represented by the number of preventive maintenance tasks and other periodic work activities (i.e., baseline activities), as well as, closing open corrective actions assigned to different departments to resolve the condition reports (i.e., corrective action workload). Beyond the identified resilience threshold, the stress exceeds the station's ability to operate successfully and there is an increased likelihood that a consequential event will occur. A performance indicator is proposed to reduce the likelihood of consequential events at nuclear power plants.
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Pamela F. Nelson,Cecilia Martin-Del-Campo,Bruce Hallbert,Ali Mosleh 한국원자력학회 2016 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.48 No.1
The development of operational performance indicators is of utmost importance for nuclearpower plants, since they measure, track, and trend plant operation. Leading indicatorsare ideal for reducing the likelihood of consequential events. This paper describesthe operational data analysis of the information contained in the Corrective Action Program. The methodology considers human error and organizational factors because of theirlarge contribution to consequential events. The results include a tool developed from thedata to be used for the identification, prediction, and reduction of the likelihood of significantconsequential events. This tool is based on the resilience curve that was built fromthe plant's operational data. The stress is described by the number of unresolved conditionreports. The strain is represented by the number of preventive maintenance tasks andother periodic work activities (i.e., baseline activities), as well as, closing open correctiveactions assigned to different departments to resolve the condition reports (i.e., correctiveaction workload). Beyond the identified resilience threshold, the stress exceeds the station'sability to operate successfully and there is an increased likelihood that a consequentialevent will occur. A performance indicator is proposed to reduce the likelihood ofconsequential events at nuclear power plants.
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