세계 주요 정기선사의 선박 투자전략 비교분석에 관한 연구

전기정,전준우,양창호,여기태,Jeon, Ki-Jeong,Jeon, Jun-Woo,Yang, Chang-Ho,Yeo, Gi-Tae 한국디지털정책학회 2016 디지털융복합연구 Vol.14 No.7

본 연구는 Fuzzy-AHP방법을 활용하여 세계 주요선사의 선박투자 전략을 비교분석하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 선박투자요인은 선행연구를 통해 1차적으로 선정한 후, 해운선사 근무경력 15년 이상의 전문가와 심층 인터뷰(Indepth-Inerview)를 수행하였다. 전문가의 지식추출이 가능한 Fuzzy-AHP를 사용하여 최종적으로 선박투자요인에 대한 가중치를 산정하였다. 선행연구에서 제시한대로 선사들을 "시황흐름 무관 선박투자" 형, "시황상승기 이전 선박투자" 형, "과다발주에 동참 후 시황하락" 형, "시황상승기 선박투자 회피" 형으로 분류하여 선박투자 전략을 비교분석하였다. 분석결과, "시황흐름 무관 선박투자" 형의 선박투자 우선순위는 해운운임(0.132), 중고선가(0.121), 선복량(0.103), "시황상승기 이전 선박투자" 형의 선박투자 우선순위는 해운운임(0.134), 선주여건(0.113), 정책금융기관의 지원(0.109)이 중요요인으로 분석되었다. "과다발주에 동참 후 시황하락" 형의 선박투자 우선선위는, 해운운임(0.173), 선복량(0.169), 국제정세 변화(0.121), "시황상승기 선박투자 회피" 형의 경우 해운운임(0.293), 선복량(0.232), 유가(0.150)가 중요한 요인으로 분석되었다. The purpose of this study was to carry out comparative analysis on the world major liner shipping companies' ship investment strategy using Fuzzy-AHP model. In this study, the ship investment factors were firstly selected by literature review and finally adopted them by in-depth interview with experts who had working experiences over 15 years in the field of shipping business. As suggested in the previous research, the liner shipping companies have been classified into four types such as 'ship investment irrelevant to market trend'(Type1), 'ship investment before market rise'(Type2), 'market decline after participation in excessive orders'(Type3), 'avoidance of ship investment during market rise'(Type4) and the comparative analysis were conducted among four ship investment types. According to the results of analysis, ship investment priority in Type1 was freight rates(0.132), price of used ship(0.121) and fleet(0.103). The priority in Type2 was freight rates(0.134), need for ship owner(0.113) and public funding(0.109). Type3 put its priority in freight rates(0.173), fleet(0.169) and the changes in international circumstances(0.121). Type4 considered freight rates(0.239), fleet(0.232) and oil price(0.150) as its priority.

논문 : 그랜저 인과관계를 활용한 세계 주요 선사의 선박발주량과 해운운임과의 상관관계에 관한 연구

전기정 ( Ki Jeong Jeon ),양창호 ( Chang Ho Yang ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2016 해운물류연구 Vol.32 No.1

본 연구는 세계 상위 10대 정기 컨테이너 선사와 한국의 한진해운, 현대상선의 신조발주 전략과 해운운임과의 상관관계를 분석하여 해운 선사별 투자유형을 구분하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 분석에 사용된 변수는 세계 10대 정기 컨테이너 선사와 한진 해운, 현대 상선의 2005년부터 2014년까지의 선박발주량(TEU)이며, 해운운임은 BDI, CCFI, HRCI를 사용하였다. 그랜저 인과관계와 충격반응함수를 적용한 결과 해운선사별 선박투자유형은 다음과 같이 구분할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. ``시황흐름 무관 선박투자``형의 Maersk, "시황상승기 이전 선박투자" 형의 China Shipping, COSCO, OOCL, ``과다발주에 동참 후 시황하락``형의 MSC, CMA-CGM, APL, UASC, Hapag-Lloyd, OOCL, Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai M.M, "시황상승기 선박투자 회피" 형의 MSC, CMA-CGM, Evergreen, APL이다. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between the shipbuilding order strategies of the top 10 global regular-container shipping companies, Hanjin shipping, Hyundai M.M and shipping charges. While Maersk, the global leading container shipping company, places shipbuilding orders before a rise in market conditions, most Asian shipping companies place shipbuilding orders when market conditions are at a peak, thus worsening business difficulties during an extended recession in the shipping industry. Based on these analysis results, the ship investment types of shipping companies were analyzed as well. The data used in this study included the ship order quantities of Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai Mrechant Shipping and global top 10 container shipping companies, as well as BDI, CCFI, HRCI. The data of the Alphaliner`s report were used for the shipbuilding order quantities of these companies while the data for CCFI, BDI, and HRCI were obtained from the Korea Maritime Institute. For the period between 2005 and 2014, every three to five months of collected data had been used, in conjunction with Granger casuality test, to analyze the correlation between shipbuilding oreder quantities and maritime freight rates. The ship investment types of shipping companies were classified through the Granger causality analysis and the impulse response function as follows. The shipping companies that did not exchange influence with any shipping charge were Maersk. This group is the ``ship investment irrelevant to market trend`` type who makes ship investments based on business judgment that is different from the market trend. The group whose ship order quantity has a positive influence on the shipping charge indicates that they order ships before a rise of shipping charge, which can be called the ``ship investment before market rise`` type. The analysis results of this study showed that this group of the ``ship investment before market rise`` type included China Shipping, COSCO and OOCL. The group whose ship order quantity had a negative influence on shipping charge included MSC, CMA-CGM, APL, UASC, Hapag-Lloyd, Hyundai, and Hanjin. This group can be called the ``market decline after participation in excessive orders`` type, meaning that they invested in ships trusting the current market condition, but the shipping charge decreased after the investment. The shipping companies whose ship order was positively influenced by shipping charge did not exist. This group can be called the ``market-following ship investment`` type, meaning that they increased ship orders when the shipping charge was high. The group whose ship order was negatively influenced by shipping charge can be called the ``avoidance of ship investment during market rise`` type, meaning that they reduced ship orders when the shipping charge was high. The results of this study showed that such group included MSC, CMA-CGM, Evergreen and APL.

다발성 전이를 동반한 고령의 간세포암 환자에서 경동맥방사선색전술과 반복적 경동맥화학색전술로 간내암과 다발성 전이의 부분관해를 이룬 증례

황상연 ( Sang Youn Hwang ),이선미 ( Seon-mi Lee ),임정우 ( Jung Woo Im ),전기정 ( Ki Jeong Jeon ),안상부 ( Sang Bu Ahn ),박진영 ( Jin-young Park ) 대한간암학회 2018 대한간암학회지 Vol.18 No.2

The number of older adults with hepatocelluar carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing with longer life expectancy and earlier diagnosis and treatment. However, older patients have lesser function reserve of multiple organ systems, more disability rate. Therefore, the treatment of elderly HCC patients remains a challenge worldwide. Recently, studies suggests that the survival outcome of older patients may be comparable to that of younger patients and active treatment may achieve promising rates of local and systemic control in selected patients. Based on above suggestions, we herein offer our experience of a case achieved partial remission by sequential therapy of transarterial chemoembolization after transarterial radioemoblization in elderly HCC patient with multiple metastasis. Further study, maybe regarding a combination of locoregional and systemic treatment, is necessary on how to manage HCC in elderly patients. (J Liver Cancer 2018;18:151-156)

반복적인 경동맥 화학색전술 후 대혈관 침범으로 재발한 간세포암에 대해 정위체부방사선치료로 완전관해를 경험한 1예

황상연 ( Sang Youn Hwang ),이선미 ( Seon-mi Lee ),임정우 ( Jong Woo Im ),전기정 ( Ki Jeong Jeon ),안상부 ( Sang Bu Ahn ),지은경 ( Eun Kyeong Ji ),박진영 ( Jin-young Park ),최철원 ( Cheol-won Choi ),양광모 ( Gwang-mo Yang ) 대한간암학회 2016 대한간암학회지 Vol.16 No.2

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the worldwide procedure performed for patients with various stage hepatoceullar carcinoma (HCC), but is not yet considered as curative treatment because of relatively high local recurrence rate. Moreover, many clinicians frequently experience treatment failure (incomplete necrosis or stage progression etc.) after repeated TACE, but no clear guidelines have been recommended about salvage treatment modalities for this situation. Recently, studies for combination of radiation therapy and TACE for HCC with TACE refractoriness have been tried and reported better therapeutic efficacy. Based on above suggestions, we herein offer our experience of a patient with macrovascular invasion developed after repeated TACE that achieve complete remission by stereotactic body radiation therapy. Further study, maybe regarding a combination of locoregional and systemic therapy, is necessary on how to manage HCC patients with TACE refractoriness. (J Liver Cancer 2016;16:123-128)

소라페닙 치료 실패 후 소라페닙과 Tegafur 병용요법을 통해 간세포암의 완전관해를 유도한 증례 1예

황상연 ( Sang Youn Hwang ),이선미 ( Seon-mi Lee ),임정우 ( Jung Woo Im ),전기정 ( Ki Jeong Jeon ),안상부 ( Sang Bu Ahn ),박진영 ( Jin-young Park ),최철원 ( Cheol-won Choi ),양광모 ( Kwang-mo Yang ) 대한간암학회 2017 대한간암학회지 Vol.17 No.1

Sorafenib is the only approved targeted agent as the first line systemic therapy for treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the improvement of survival duration under 3 months is far from clinical satisfactory and most patients experience disease progression within 6 months after sorafenib therapy. Unfortunately, second line systemic therapy after treatment failure of sorafenib was not established and there were no clear guidelines for salvage treatment modalities. Recently, studies suggests that combination of sorafenib and single cytotoxic agent can be relatively effective and safe strategy that achieves promising rates of local and systemic control in advanced HCC patients. Based on above suggestions, we herein offer our experience of a case achieved complete remission by combination therapy of sorafenib and tegafur in the patient with progressed disease after sorafenib therapy. (J Liver Cancer 2017;17:88-93)

동정맥 단락을 동반한 4.8 cm의 침윤성 간세포암에서 정위체부방사선치료와 경동맥화학색전술로 종양의 완전관해를 경험한 1예

황상연 ( Sang Youn Hwang ),이선미 ( Seon Mi Lee ),임정우 ( Jung Woo Im ),김준석 ( Joon Suk Kim ),전기정 ( Ki Jeong Jeon ),안상부 ( Sang Bu Ahn ),지은경 ( Eun Kyeong Ji ),강현철 ( Hyun Cheol Kang ),최철원 ( Cheol Won Choi ),양광모 대한간암학회 2015 대한간암학회지 Vol.15 No.1

Infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients have a poor prognosis because most patients present with advanced disease. Although tumor size is small, ablation therapy is difficult because it is difficult to delineate tumor boundary and tumor often combined vascular invasion. Therefore many clinicians still try locoregional therapy (LRT) such as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), radiation therapy (RT), or combination with LRT and sorafenib in this situation. Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is new technology providing very highly conformal ablative radiation dose and is expected to salvage modality for HCC showed incomplete response of TACE due to combined arteriovenous (AV) shunts. Based on above suggestions, we herein offer our experience of a complete remission of tumor by combination of SBRT and TACE in a patient with infiltrative HCC. Further study, maybe regarding a combination of locoregional and systemic therapy is necessary on how to manage infiltrative HCC with AV shunts. (Journal of Liver Cancer 2015;15:64-69)