우리나라 人口現況과 向後 展望 및 對策

이시백 中央醫學社 1990 中央醫學 Vol.55 No.3

社會變動과 離婚率 推移分析

김진섭,이시백 서울大學校保健大學院 1996 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.6 No.1

This study is aimed at reviewing the social change, describing the recent trend of divorce in the social index related to woman. This study is also aimed carrying to understand the trend of divorce in the present and the socio-democratic characteristics of the divorced persons. The data used in this study are derived from the Government Publications including the Vital Statistics and the Judical Yearbook issued by the Office of Court Administration during 1984-1993. The major findings of this study are as follows: 1. The crude divorce rate in the present decade increased from 0.89 in 1984 to 1.05 in 1993. The divorce rate for married persons continuously increased from 2.62 in 1975 to 4.48 in 1990. The divorce rate for a marriage increased from 10.0% in 1984 to 15.0% in 1993. 2. The divorce rate in the urban are is higher than in the rural area; however, the increasing speed in the rural area is very higher than in he urban area. The divorce proportion for total number of divorces in the capital area holds highest. The divorce rate in Seoul area shows decreasing trend and that in Kyung-ki area shows increasing trend. 3. Conjugal discord' is the main reason for divorce in Vital Statistics. 'Spouse's unfaithful deed' is the first rason in the Judical Yearbook. 4. Among the applicants for juridical divorce, those who married within 5 years hold 69.8% in 1993. This shows that married couples have something unstable in the early stage of marriage. 5. Among the applicants for juridical divorce, those who have less than two children shows 74.0% in 1993. This stands for the tendency of low birth rate in Korea. 6. Among the applicants for juridical divorce, those who finished within elementary school course decreased, while those with higher educational career have continuously increased. 7. Among the applicants for juridical divorce, those who were joblessness are 46.2% in 1993; however a number of merchant, office worker continuously increased. This shows job distribution for woman in Korea. .

우리나라 出生性比에 대한 推定分析

文相植,李時伯 서울大學校保健大學院 1995 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.5 No.1

Major findings of the study are summarized as follows: The results of the examination of Census (0-4 age) show that Census data lack an accuracy in the sense that the population of 1985-1990 were increased in comparison with the previous years. The comparison of actual sex ratios with the expected ones shows that actual sex ratios are higher that expected ones in almost every region, which made the presumption that there was a delay in the reporting of births of daughters possible. The difference between actual sex ratios and expected ones is wider in urban area than in rural area. The data of 1985 Census were more accurate than those of 1990 Census. It is presumed that there were more overlapping reportings in 1990. The comparison of the sex ratio of 1981 with those of accumulated years shows that the sex ratio difference was 2.8, which was decreased to 0.2 in 1991. The birth reports of children were made at the proper times and the difference in sex ratio was decreased. These facts explain that the birth reports of sons and daughters were made at the proper times. The examination of Census data in comparison with Vital Statistics shows that the data of 1985 were more accurate than those of 1990. The difference between the actual sex ratios and the expected ones is wider in 0 age group than in the age bracket of 1-4.

韓國人의 主要 死亡原因에 對한 死亡性比 分析

김진표,이시백 서울大學校保健大學院 1995 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.5 No.1

The purpose of this study is to find out the mortality pattern, particularly sex mortality ratios. Sex mortality ratio can be defined as the ratio of male death rate to female death rate. The major findings are summarized as follows; The sex mortality ratio of 25-34 age group is 264.0, 35-44 age group, 268.8 and 45-54 age group, 265, which are high due to economical activities. The difference in sex mortality ratios is attributed to the risk behaviour such as job stress, smoking and drinking. The crude sex mortality ratios in almost all groups were increased whereas that of over 75 age group was decreased to 173.3 in 1983 and 161.5 in 1991. This fact explains that sex mortality ratio is changing into the desirable pattern. The sex mortality ratio of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is 444.6 and the next is injury and poisoning, 280.0. That of cerebrovascular disease was the lowest, 87.0. As for the sex mortality ratio by death cause, that of chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis was the highest, 444.6 and the next was injury, 280.0. The lowest one was cerobrovascular disease, 87.0. An analysis on the trend of sex mortality ratio by death cause and by year, that of neoplasm was increased for both males and females. But the growth rates were almost same, which did not affect the sex mortality ratios. The growth rates of sex mortality ratios of other death causes show that the exposure of females to cancer-causing factors was increased. The sex mortality ratio of cardiovascular disease was decreased from 117.3 in 1983, to 85.7 in 1992, which show that cardiovascular disease is more prevalent in old age group and males are less likely to die by cardiovascular than before. The sex mortality ratios of heart disease and high blood pressure was decreased, which show that females are more exposed to the risk caused by diet pattern and stress rather than job stress.

장기 인구전망을 통한 초등학교의 교육환경에 관한 연구

김민규,이시백 韓國學校保健學會 1999 韓國學校保健學會誌 Vol.12 No.1

The purpose of the study was to ascertain the trends of future circumstances in primary education along with population change. These trends, which are subject to change in population and stricture, have a great impact on the size and characteristics of primary school-aged children. Accordingly, it is imperative for the government to plan for future conditions involving primary education. The major findings of the study were as follows: 1.In the long-term primary school children aged 6-11, which accounted for 17.7% of the total population in 1970, will decline to 8.6% by the year 2000, 6.9% in 2020 and 6.4% in 2030. This drastic reduction in fertility rate is a direct result of pleasure by the government to control population. 2. In 1996, the total number of classes in primary schools rose to 106,594. In the future, those numbers will actually decline. By 2003 the total number of classes will peak at 142,605, but until then drop off to 112,288 by 2030-a decrease of over 6,000. 3. The actual number of primary schools in 1997 totaled 5,721. This figure will reach its highest peak, 5,942, in 2003, but it is expected decrease later after declining by 1,263i it will bottom out at 4,679 in 2003.4. The number of teachers at primacy schools increased from 101,095 in 1970,119, 064 in 1980, 136,800 in 1990 to 138,369 in 1995. Accordingly this means that the ratio of students to teaching stator changed for the better. By the year 2005, if teachers of specialty subjects (music, art, English, physical education) are assigned to every primary school with over 18 classrooms and the number of students per class is 30, it should improve educational surroundings. This is because it is expected that the population of primary school children will continue to grow until 2003 and then decrease. Thus, there is a need to maintain the number of primacy school teachers between the years 2003 and 2030 so that the ratio of students to teachers will be reduced to 1/20.25. In considering factors related to migration which influence conditions of education, it is evident that changes have already begun. In the suburbs of Seoul, population shifts are causing overcrowding in classrooms. The government believes it would be inefficient to invest in education because fluctuating migration figures make it impossible. Accordingly, we have to be concerned about stabilizing the population throughout the entire country.

"국민건강증진법의 제정과 향후 보건사업의 방향"에 대한 토론

이시백 서울大學校保健大學院 1997 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.7 No.1

將來 人口變化에 따른 勞動力 수급에 관한 연구

탁효정,이시백 서울大學校保健大學院 1998 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.8 No.1

The labor force has been the important impetus to the economic development of Korea for the last 30 years. The change of labor force, which is subject to the change of population size and structure, has the great impact on the size and characteristics of economically active population. Accordingly, the purpose of the study is to estimate the optimum labor supply by analyzing the change of economically productive manpower along with the size and structure of population to estimate the scope of economically active population. The present study revealed that the scope of economically productive population had increased by the number 12,940,000 (75.4%) for the last 20 years(1970-1990) while it is anticipated to increase by the number of 5,411,000 (18.0%) for the next 20 years(1990-2020). As for the estimation of economic activity rate in accordance with data of more developed country, the rate is expected to be 76.4% in 2000, 77.0% in 2010, 77.6% in 2020 in case of males while it will be 48.9% in 2000, 49.5% in 2010, 50.5% in 2020, which will show the steady increase. Regarding the scope of economically active population, the number of males are expected to be 16,794,000 and that of females, 9,948,000 with a total of 26,922,000 by the year 2020. The number of economically active population is expected to increase up to 5,961,000(54.1%) in case of males and 2,494,000(33.1%), in case of females for the next 20 years(1990-2010).

출산제어사업의 출생방지 효과분석 1962 - 1982

이시백 한국인구학회 1984 한국인구학 Vol.7 No.1

It has been well known that the family pjanning programme has a great deal with declining fertility in Korea. The present study was aimed to measure the impact of family planning program me on fertility level. The specific objectives are to overview the demographic changes ncluding fertility declining and to calculate actual number of birth averted during the last 20 years. The data used for the present study was collected from various sources such as service statistics of the government, survey and research reports, and other related papers. The tool used for calculation of birth prevention was "Standard Couple Years of Protection (SCYP) Method" developed by M Gorosh. The major findings are summarized as follows ; Total of family planning acceptors from 1962 to 1982 was 9,556,153. On the basis of this data, total of averted births was calculated for eachcontraceptive Method ; 1.Oral pills, total number of acceptors from 1968 to 1982 was 2.347,259. Estimated number of birth averted was 272 ,303 .70 and the Coefficient of births prevention per acceptor turned out to be 0.114 2.Condoms, total number of birth acceptors from 1962 to 1982 was 2,874,216. Estimated number of birth averted was 220,495.30 and the coefficient of births prevention per acceptor turned out to be 0.077. 3.IUD, total number of acceptors from 1962 to 1982 was 5,101 .650. Estimated number of birth averted was 1,377,584.76 and the coefficient of births prevention per acceptor turned out to be 0.270. 4.Vasectomy, total number of acceptors from 1962 to 1982 was 556,508. Estimated number of birth averted was 626 ,128 .80 and the coefficient of births prevention per acceptor turned out to be 1.125. 5.Tubaligation total number of birth acceptors from 1972 to 1982 was 1 210,775. Estimated number of birth averted was 1 ,117 679.00 and thecoefficient of birtlts prevention per acceptor turned nut to be 0.923. 6.Abortion, total number of acceptors from 1973 to 1982 was 465,525. Estimated number of birth averted was 355 ,283 .60 and the coefficient of births prevention per acceptor turned out to be 0.763.

學校 保健敎育 向上을 爲한 學校保健事業 實態分析과 對策 硏究

李時伯 서울大學校 保健大學院 1984 보건학논집 Vol.- No.37

人口構造의 變化가 死亡率 水準에 미치는 影響

沈秀慶,李時伯 서울大學校保健大學校 1997 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.7 No.1

The purpose of the study was to estimate the accuracy of death rates that were reported officially. For this purpose, the effects of the structural change of population on mortaity level were analyzed by comparing the age-standardized death rate and crude death rate. The major findings of the study were as follows: Based on the Vital Registration Statistics, the population of target years were standardized year 1966, 1980, 1994. The effects of structural change of population on mortality level were measured as 30.7%, 72.6%, 109.0% during the period 1996-1980 while they were 49.8%, 69.5% and 87.6% respectively during the period 1966-1994. Thesame analysis was conducted on the basis of Census data. The effects were 49.6%,100.0%, 65.4% during the period 1966-1980 while those were 27.6%, 58.7% and 22.8% during the period 1966-1994. Based on the data applied by the crude death rate, the populations of target years were standardized on the standard year 1966, 1980,1994. The results indicated that the effects of structural change of populations on mortality level were 62.3%, 42.6%, 26.0% during the period 1966-1980 while they were 56.0%, 50.8% and 45.4% during the period 1966-1994. There were large differences in crude death rates and age-standardized death rates among these data sources: Vital Registration statistics, Census Data, Data applied by Crude Death Rate. These differences imply that the mortality statistical data collected through the reporting have many problems in terms of the accuracy and reliability.