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홍록희(Lock-Hee Hong),이명훈(Myeong-Hoon Lee) 한국주거환경학회 2020 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.18 No.1
The purpose of the research is to analyze the importance of indicators that can evaluate the availability of apartment units and provide basic information to suppliers, providers, and stakeholders in the housing market. According to the analysis results, the location characteristics and the importance of the market indicators are high among the top factors. The sub-factors showed that the index was followed by subway distance, education environment, housing price trend, convenience facilities, cultural facilities, and housing purchasing capacity index are high. Implications of this research are as follows : First, when selling apartments, the supplier should choose a business site with the most emphasis on location characteristics. Second, proper business feasibility review and detailed sales plan should be established for housing supply and demand adjustment considering the trend of macroeconomic factors in housing supply plans. Third, the supplier shall establish a supply plan that reflects changes in the housing market, such as setting the optimum price for sale by reflecting changes in housing policy or macroeconomic factors. Fourth, the supplier should be able to identify changes in the housing market by location characteristics, selling prices, and purchasing capacity rather than brand value.
서울 아파트 청약경쟁률 결정요인 비교분석 : 문재인 정부와 박근혜 정부 규제 정책 중심으로
홍록희(Hong, Lock Hee),이명훈(Lee, Myeong hun) 도시정책학회 2020 도시부동산연구 Vol.11 No.3
This study looked at what factors determine the competition rate for apartment subscriptions by dividing the period into the Moon Jae-in government and the Park Geun-hye government. Logistic regression analysis was conducted by setting purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, price outlook, selling price, unsold lease, lease rate, government dummy as independent variables and subscription competition rate as subordinate variables. A full-term model, including a dummy of government, and a separate model divided by the current and former government periods were formed to determine if there were any differences in the factors determining the subscription competition rate depending on the period. Dummy variables by the government were significant at 99% confidence levels, showing significant differences in subscription competition rates depending on the government. Depending on the timing of the apartment sale, the factors behind the subscription decision also differed. In the previous Park Geun-hye government, 6 out of 10 variables were significant at the 99% confidence level, including home purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, sale price, transaction volume and lump-sum housing lease price. This can be interpreted as the principle of self-adjustment in the market played a role as the government minimizes market intervention. On the other hand, it was analyzed that only 2 of the 10 independent variables and the purchasing power index were noted during the Moon Jae-in government period, when the ceiling on the sale of private apartments, the subscription price point system, and the priority supply for the homeless were implemented. If the lump-sum housing lease price rises, the probability of a higher competition rate for subscription has increased, while on the contrary, it has been confirmed that the competition rate for subscription has increased due to a lower purchasing power.