Dynamic Bradley-Terry 모델을 적용한 한국 프로 남자 배구팀 경기력 분석

허종관,이봉근 한국체육과학회 2024 한국체육과학회지 Vol.33 No.1

The purpose of this study is to estimate changes in the performance of the Korean professional volleyball team by applying the Dynamic Bradley-Terry model to Korea's volleyball game result records and compare the estimated results with the Static Bradley-Terry model. For the purpose of this study, the match result records of 252 games of 7 professional volleyball teams participating in the 2022-2023 V-League regular season were collected from the website of the Korea Volleyball Federation (KOVO) (https://www.kovo.co.kr/). The data was collected using a web crawling program created by the researcher using Python (python 3.11.2) program. For the collected data, the static Bradley-Terry model, which simply considered the opponent team's performance parameters, and the dynamic Bradley-Terry model, which also considered the time variable, were applied. Afterwards, We discussed the appropriateness and limitations of the DBT model as a statistical model to examine the relative performance parameters of Korean professional volleyball team for the entire season, along with the trend of performance changes during the season. In conclusion, the DBT model is undoubtedly a very useful analytical method as it not only estimates the performance parameters of each team for the entire season, but also provides accurately inferred performance parameters that reflect the changed performance of the opposing team over time, along with the trend of performance changes. However, the difficulty in analyzing the main factors causing changes in the trend of performance is considered to be a disadvantage of this model.

스포츠 전략의 선택 : 어떻게 선택해야 하는가?

허종관,김세중 한국체육학회 2015 전국체전기념 한국체육학회 학술발표회 Vol.2015 No.-

마르코프 체인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 베이지안 Bradley-Terry 모델을 적용한 배구 경기 결과 예측

허종관,윤종대 한국체육과학회 2023 한국체육과학회지 Vol.32 No.2

As information and communication technology develops, sports data also continues to expand quantitatively and grow qualitatively. Korea's professional volleyball game also provides various data on game results to satisfy the various needs of spectators or viewers. However, in order to effectively use sports data, it is necessary to extract useful information using appropriate statistical methods. For this reason, many volleyball-related researchers tried to explain and predict volleyball game-related phenomena by applying various statistical models to extract useful information suitable for the purpose through volleyball game records. In other words, the statistical model for predicting the outcome of a volleyball match must reflect the ability of the state team, and the estimated result must also include uncertainty to be reasonable. For this reason, this study estimated the ability parameters of each team by applying the Bayesian Bradley-Terry with MCMC to the volleyball game data to estimate the results including information on uncertainty as well as reflecting the opponent's ability. Afterwards, the estimated parameters were compared with the estimates of the general Bradley-Terry model and compared with the estimates of the Bayesian Bradley-Terry with MCMC to evaluate and discuss the effectiveness and limitations.

공간정보와 공간통계를 활용한 지역별 공공체육시설의 형평성 분석

허종관,윤종대 한국체육과학회 2022 한국체육과학회지 Vol.31 No.1

This study were to evaluate equity of public sports facilities using GIS. For this purpose of this study, Through the collected data, we confirmed the regional distribution and the inequality for each variable. Then, we analyzed the hotspots for the variables related to public sports facilities and examined the spatial structure and patterns through local Moran's I. Through the results, the equity of public sports facilities among autonomous districts in Seoul was evaluated. Results were follow as: The Gini coefficient of variables for public sports facilities among autonomous districts in Seoul was .278~.489, the Gini coefficient of health-related variables was .048~.091, and the Gini coefficient of physical activity variables was .064~.110. Variable and autonomous districts located in the first quadrant were Gangseo-gu and Yangcheon-gu in the area of public sports facilities, Eunpyeong-gu, Dobong-gu, and Jongno-gu in Parkyul, and Eunpyeong-gu, Dobong-gu, Gangbuk-gu and Jongno-gu in the park area per capita. Variable located in the second quadrant The Variable and autonomous districts located in the third quadrant were Seodaemun-gu in terms of park area per person walking living area, and the Variable and autonomous districts located in the third quadrant were Jung-gu in the number of public sports facilities and Gwangjin-gu in the park rate. In conclusion, the equity of public sports facilities among autonomous districts of Seoul can be evaluated as being low overall, although there is regional equity in each unit area. However, in evaluating the equity of public sports facilities, considering only the quantitative aspects can be a very narrow judgments.

스포츠 전략의 선택:어떻게 선택해야 하는가?

허종관(Heo, Chong-Kwan),김세중(Kim, Sea-Joong) 한국체육과학회 2015 한국체육과학회지 Vol.24 No.5

The purpose of this study were to introduce and practically make adapt statistical method for “how sports strategies were selected”. For this study, We introduced statistical method to select strategy suggested by Skinner(2011) and adapted it to some situation based on 2014~2015 season’s game results from KBL web-site. Through adapted results, we confirmed applicability and usefulness of statistical method suggested by him. In conclusion, statistical method suggested by him was able to adapt on situation of game opening part and late part of underdog. It appeared to be appropriate method for estimating ratio of optimization between two scoring strategies, also. Therefore, this statistical method will be able to adapt a personal match with differential scoring system, that is baseball, soccer, Taekwondo, Judo etc.. Moreover, it will be able to used to select tactics without differential scoring system. Also, optimization method of scoring strategies will make sufficient use of balanced distribution among using vary these strategies, and even be adapted on distribution of pass and attacking direction.

농구 경기력 분석에서의 비선형 다층모형의 적용

허종관(Heo, Chong-kwan),김세중(Kim, Sae-Joong) 한국체육과학회 2014 한국체육과학회지 Vol.23 No.4

The promary purpose of this study was to estimate relative abilities of each korean professional baketball team including opposing team or athletics thought appling hierachical nonlinear model. For performing this investigation, competition results for 2011-2012 season KBL were collected from KBL website. Bradley-Terry Model was used relative ability parameters in basketball teams and these was is estimated by linear model with explanatory variables such as competitive factors. Results follow as: 1. Relative abilities appeared to Dong-Bu>KGC>KT =MOVIS>Electronic land>Dong- Yang>SK>Samsung. 2. KGC, Dong-Bu, KCC, KT, MOVIS, Electronic land was shown significant difference in comparing the lowest team, Samsung. 3. In abilities predicted by explanatory variables, just 2point effected to relative abilities significantly.

Many Facet Rasch Model을 적용한 태권도 심판판정 분석

허종관(Heo Chong-Kwan),이기광(Lee Ki-Kwang),김세중(Kim Sae-Joong) 한국체육과학회 2011 한국체육과학회지 Vol.20 No.2

The purpose of this study was to analyze judge’s judgement in Taekwondo competition for offering a concrete data to solve a problem of Taekwondo judge’s decision. The subject of this study was selected of 40 judges and 1,399 athletes participating in the J National Taekwondo Meet held from January, 23, 2007 to January, 30, 2007. A many facets Rasch model to analyze the judge’s decision was defined 9 facets Rasch model including the judge’s severity according to an individual, gender, region and career and the athlete’s ability according to an individual, gender and region and the relative athlete’s ability according to an individual and region. Judges’ severity, consistency and objectivity according to an individual, gender, region and career were examined by the many facets model. Results were as follows: In judges’ decision according to an individual, judges’ severity appeared to be significant difference(p<.01). In judges’ decision according to gender, severity appeared to be not significant difference(p<.05). In judges’s decision according to region, severity appeared not to be significant difference(p<.05). In judges’ decision according to career, severity appeared not to be significant difference(p<.05). Judges by athletes interaction according to gender and region appeared not to influence athletes’ performance.

이변량 포아송 모형을 이용한 한국 프로농구 팀의 능력 모수 추정

허종관(Heo, Chong-Kwan),김세중(Kim, Sea-Joong),이우경(Lee, Woo-Kyung) 한국체육과학회 2016 한국체육과학회지 Vol.25 No.2

The purpose of this study were to test suitability of bivariate Poisson model for analyzing of record of Korean basketball league and estimate offensive abilities and defensive abilities of each team. For this purpose, we were collected record of Korean basketball league for 2013-2014, 2014-2015 season from KBL Web-page. And we adapted collected data to bivariate Poisson model. The results were follow as: 1. Distribution of 2scoring suited to adapt bivariate Poisson model. But distribution of 3scoring was not suitability. 2. The team possessing the best 2scoring offensive ability was MOVIS and The team possessing the best 2scoring defensive ability was DONGBU. Also, 2scoring offensive ability was relation with winning rate f or 2 season. 3. The team possessing the best 3scoring offensive ability was KCC and The team possessing the best defensive ability was MOVIS. But, 3scoring offensive ability was inverse relation with winning rate for 2season. Conclusively, bivariate Poisson model suited to 2scoring. And 2scoring offensive ability and was relation with winning rate for 2season but, 3scoring was inverse relation with winning rate for 2season.

로지스틱/마르코프 체인 모델을 이용한 한국프로농구 순위 예측

허종관(Heo, Chong-Kwan),김세중(Kim, Sea-Joong),도재현(Do, Jae-Hyun) 한국체육과학회 2016 한국체육과학회지 Vol.25 No.5

The purpose of this study were to find out meaning, suitable, difference among models that applied some method of paired comparison analysis for estimating abilities of each of KBL teams. For this purpose, scoring records and match days in 2015~2016 season were collected from KBL Web-site. And it were analyzed by Bradley-Terry model, general linear model using difference of scoring between two teams and Dynamic Bradley-Terry model. Analyzed results were compared with real order of each team in 2015~2016 season. All data were analyzed by r-program x64(3.3.0). Conclusively, Paired comparison analysis can estimate consistent abilities regardless of opposite teams. In addition, general linear model using difference of scoring between two teams can use to consider to effectiveness of scoring and Dynamic Bradley-Terry model can apply on figure out the main factor about changing abilities.

베이지안 위계적 모델을 적용한 KBL 선수들의 포지션과 3점슛 능력의 관계 분석

허종관(Heo, Chong-Kwan),정철규(Jung, Chul-Kyu) 한국체육과학회 2023 한국체육과학회지 Vol.32 No.6

This study aims to identify differences in 3-point shooting ability depending on position by confirming the structural relationship between the position and 3-point shooting ability of Korean professional basketball players. For this purpose, game results related to 3-point shots of professional basketball players from 2021 to 2022 were collected from the KBL website, and the collected results were analyzed by applying a Bayesian hierarchical model. the results are as follow: 1. the position with the highest 3-point shooting ability was guard, followed by forward and center. The group with the highest heterogeneity was the center. 2. there was no significant difference in the 3-point shooting ability between guard-forward, guard-center, and forward-center at the 95% HDI level. 3. as a result of verifying the difference by extracting one player from each position with relatively high 3-point shooting ability, it was found that there was no significant difference at the 95% HDI level. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is currently no difference in 3-point shooting ability depending on position in Korean professional basketball, and these results suggest that there is a change in role depending on position in domestic professional basketball games.